Warmer air to our south and west will make an advance in this direction today and for awhile it will be forced to ride up and over the cold air mass still in place. As a result of this “overrunning” process, there will be plenty of clouds today and a bit of rain this afternoon perhaps with a few ice pellets mixed in at times. By tomorrow, the warmer air will win out in its entirety and temperatures are likely to surge to the 70 degree mark, but this dramatic warm up will come at a cost. Showers are likely to develop in the afternoon hours and the late day and evening could feature some strong thunderstorm activity in the region as a cold front closes in on the eastern seaboard. The passage of this next cold front will result in a cooler air mass for Friday and it stays on the cool side this weekend.
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A severe weather outbreak on Wednesday and Wednesday night is coming to the same part of the nation that was hit hard last week including the Deep South, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. One of the highest weather risks in this region will be for damaging wind gusts aided by strong jet streaks in multiple levels of the atmosphere. In addition, tornadoes may become rather numerous with many ingredients coming together in the atmosphere for rotation to form in many locations. The severe weather threat will shift to the eastern states on Thursday - albeit not quite as high - as a strong cold front pushes towards the coast and damaging wind gusts will again be on the table. Looking ahead, cold air outbreaks will likely continue for the central and eastern US into at least the middle of April and this will likely result in additional severe weather outbreaks.
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The unusual chill will stick around into tomorrow and then much warmer air to our south and west will make an advance in this direction. Initially, the warmer air will be forced to ride up and over the entrenched cold air mass early tomorrow and this “overrunning” process can result in a bit of rain, sleet and/or snow. It should turn milder tomorrow afternoon with a plain rain shower possible along with some partial sunshine. By Thursday, the warmer air will win out in its entirety and temperatures are likely to surge to 70 degrees following the rather limited highs on Wednesday in the 40’s. This dramatic warm up on Thursday will come at a cost, however, as showers are likely and a strong-to-severe thunderstorm can form along and just ahead of incoming strong cold front. That same front may cause another outbreak of severe weather later tomorrow into Wednesday night across much of the same area that was hit last week (Deep South, Tennessee Valley). The passage of this next cold front will result in a much cooler air mass around here for Friday and it remains on the cool side this weekend.
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This is quite impressive cold today in the Mid-Atlantic region with many spots likely to have a real struggle to reach the freezing mark for highs – very late in the season for that to occur. The combination of early morning “spring-strength” sunshine and very cold conditions aloft has quickly destabilized the atmosphere and numerous snow showers and heavier snow squalls will affect the Mid-Atlantic region during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Any snow shower or heavier snow squall can put down a quick accumulation and create dangerous driving conditions. Winds remain strong as well today from a northwesterly direction producing wind chills even lower than the unusually cold actual air temperatures. Unfortunately, it looks like the cold air outbreaks can continue into the middle part of April.
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The week will start off with temperatures far below-normal for the latter stages of March and afternoon highs confined to the lower 30’s. In fact, if we manage to stay below freezing today - which is not at all out of the question - it would be one of the latest ever recorded in the winter/early spring season. In addition to the cold, the winds will remain quite strong producing even lower wind chills and snow showers are likely to become quite numerous in the Mid-Atlantic region during the mid-day and afternoon hours. The atmosphere will become unstable after a couple hours of “spring-strength” sunshine combined with winter-like cold conditions aloft. Any snow shower or heavier snow squall can put down a quick minor accumulation during the mid-day or afternoon hours. Warmer air to our south and west will make an advance in this direction at mid-week and the initial overrunning of the cold air may result in a bit of rain, sleet or snow on Wednesday. Dramatically warmer air will win out by Thursday and there will b a chance of showers and thunderstorms as a strong cold front approaches from the west.
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In what seems to becoming more and more of an annual tradition, winter is going to make a comeback in early spring. Colder air will begin to make its presence felt later today in the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, in the upper part of the atmosphere where the freezing level will lower. As a result of the increasing cold air aloft, the atmosphere will become quite unstable and there will likely be “hit or miss” thunderstorms during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Given the lower freezing level aloft, hail or graupel (snow pellets) can be experienced in some areas during any gusty shower or thunderstorm later today. Winds will increase in strength tonight from the northwest and continue quite strong on Sunday and the passage of a secondary cold front will usher in very cold air for this time of year and below-freezing conditions for late Sunday night and late Monday night. There will be snow showers possible on Sunday associated with the secondary cold front and perhaps even a few heavier snow squalls for interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic..
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After a relatively mild day today, the weekend will turn progressively colder and NW winds will increase in strength following the passage of two cold frontal systems. With the arrival of the initial cold front on Saturday, the atmosphere will become very unstable and there is a good chance for some rain shower activity and maybe a rumble or two of thunder. It is also possible that ice pellets mix in with the rain at times as the colder air filters into the region. Temperatures on Sunday will be confined to the 40’s for afternoon highs and well below-freezing conditions are likely late Sunday night and again late Monday night. It stays colder-than-normal on Tuesday and will have to watch for the threat for some rain, ice and/or snow at night or on Wednesday as warmer air tries to return.
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Occasional rain or drizzle will continue through tonight as a secondary low pressure system forms near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline and a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. After a relatively mild day on Friday, the weekend will turn increasingly cold and NW winds will intensify following the passage of two cold frontal systems. With the arrival of the initial cold front on Saturday, there can be a few rain showers and perhaps even a bit of sleet or graupel (i.e., snow pellets) mixed in at times late in the day. Temperatures on Sunday will be confined to the 40’s for afternoon highs and below-freezing conditions are very likely late Sunday night and again late Monday night. In fact, it stays quite a bit colder-than-normal for the latter part of March right into the middle part of next week.
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The calendar says its spring, but as has been the case in many recent years, winter will not go away without a fight. A cold blast will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Saturday and by the time we get to the early part of next week, temperatures will be far below-normal for the latter part of March. In fact, this cold air outbreak will likely bring temperatures to below the freezing mark in most areas in the overnight hours early next week making outdoor sensitive plants quite vulnerable to damage. In addition to the cold, the chance for snow (or other forms of frozen precipitation) will return this weekend to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and there may be other threats coming this way later next week.
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One low pressure system will push to our northwest during the next 24-36 hours and a second one will form off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result around here will be periods of rain from late today into early Friday and a strong thunderstorm or two can be mixed into the picture. Looking ahead, an impressive cold blast will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend and highs on Sunday threaten to stay in the upper 40’s raising the possibility of below-freezing readings by early Monday morning in many suburban locations and again early Tuesday morning (i.e., watch out for sensitive outdoor plants).
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