Today will be another hot and humid one in the Mid-Atlantic region, but unlike recent days, there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms. The chance of showers and thunderstorms in the NYC metro area will increase by early tonight and will continue through the overnight hours as a cool front approaches the area. This front stalls out nearby on Friday and the result will be a continuing threat of showers and thunderstorms from tomorrow through the upcoming weekend. Any rain that falls in this developing unsettled pattern can be heavy at times and any thunderstorm can be strong-to-severe. In terms of temperatures, they’ll peak once again today up in the 90’s, but then gradually scale down during the next few days.
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Tropical Storm Lee is on the door step of “category 1” hurricane classification and all indications are that it will continue to intensify and reach “major” hurricane status by the weekend. In fact, the expected significant intensification of Lee could result in the storm climbing all the way to “category 5” classification sometime this weekend or early next week. The overall environment becomes very favorable for the strengthening of Lee with a relaxation of wind shear and a west-to-northwest trek over very warm waters of the tropical Atlantic. By early next week, the west-to-northwest path of Lee could change to a northerly direction which would reduce the chances of a direct impact on the US east coast. However, two systems that will likely dictate the ultimate storm track of Lee are many days away from even forming. They include an upper-level trough that may form over the Ohio valley/eastern US and upper-level ridge that may intensify over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic. It is simply too early to say how this upper air pattern will unfold; therefore, too early to say if Lee can indeed directly impact the US east coast.
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With high pressure still in control, the high heat and humidity will continue for another couple of days in the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, the heat both this afternoon and on Thursday can break records in some spots with expected highs well up in the 90’s (see below). Later tomorrow, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase as a frontal system approaches the area from the northwest. This front will tend to stall out in the general vicinity late in the week and that will result in unsettled weather conditions on Friday, Saturday and Sunday with the daily threat of showers and thunderstorms.
On the tropical scene, “Lee” will be closely monitored in coming days as it intensifies rapidly and potentially becomes a threat to the US east coast. Lee will probably reach hurricane status later today and will likely become a “major” hurricane by the weekend…maybe even intensify all the way to a “category 5” storm.
Record high temperatures in the metro region are as follows (and all are within reach): Central Park (97 degrees, 1881), LGA (96 degrees, 2018), JFK (92 degrees, 1985). Newark, NJ (98 degrees, 2018)
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A tropical wave that pushed off of Africa’s west coast several days ago has officially become tropical depression #13 in the Atlantic Ocean. This system is likely to reach named tropical storm status within 24 hours or so (will be named Lee) and very well could intensify to “major” hurricane status by the upcoming weekend. The overall environment will become increasingly conducive for intensification of the soon-to-be named tropical system in coming days as it continues on a long track across the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear will relax as an upper-level ridge builds nearby and it’ll move over very warm waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Looking ahead, it appears this system may push to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles - avoiding the Caribbean Sea - and then head on a course towards the US east coast as a “major” hurricane. Whether or not this developing tropical storm ever reaches the US east coast is simply too early to call.
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Strong high pressure will be in control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next few days and it will stay hot and humid with highs well up in the 90’s. These temperatures are well above-normal for the early part of September and will challenge records in many areas through the day on Thursday. A frontal system will approach later in the week and this will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms and the front then stalls nearby likely resulting in an unsettled weather pattern for the weekend.
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Strong high pressure will be in control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next several days and that includes the long holiday weekend. Sunshine is likely to prevail each day from today through Tuesday with high pressure nearby. Temperatures in this upcoming stretch of nice weather will start off very comfortable in the Mid-Atlantic region with the high pressure stationed primarily to our west. However, after the high pressure shifts to a position off the coast, much warmer air from the middle of the country will make an advancement to the eastern states. As a result, it’ll turn quite warm around here early next week with lower 90’s likely on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
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Strong high pressure will be in control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region for the next several days and that includes the long holiday weekend. Sunshine is likely to prevail each day from today through next Tuesday with high pressure nearby and this same system will help to prevent the remnants of Idalia to make it any farther north today than the southeastern part of North Carolina. Temperatures in this upcoming stretch of nice weather will start off very comfortable in the Mid-Atlantic region with the high pressure stationed primarily to our west. However, after the high pressure shifts to a position off the east coast, much warmer air from the middle of the country will make an advancement to the eastern seaboard. As a result, it’ll turn very warm here early next week with 90+ degree highs likely on Monday and Tuesday.
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Most would agree that the timing couldn’t be any better. In what has been an overall very comfortable summer in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, the traditional end to the season will feature strong high pressure in control leading to an extended stretch of dry weather to include the Labor Day holiday weekend. Temperatures will start off very comfortable for the first part of this period; however, they’ll climb to very warm levels by the early part of next week.
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Hurricane Idalia makes landfall this morning as a “major” along Florida’s Gulf coast and will push to the northeast over the next 24-36 hours likely reaching the Carolina coastline by early Thursday. High pressure to our west will build into the Northeast US in this same 24-36 hour time period halting any northward advance of Idalia past the state of North Carolina. This same high pressure system will stay in control of the weather here in the Mid-Atlantic region for the remainder of the week providing us with comfortable temperatures as we end the month of August.
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Hurricane Idalia continues to intensify today as it encounters more favorable environmental conditions with diminished wind shear and it is likely to attain “major” classification of category 3 or higher before making landfall early tomorrow along Florida’s Gulf coast. Hurricane Idalia will then turn northeast, weaken slowly, and push towards the Carolina coastline as it becomes increasingly influenced by building high pressure ridging aloft to its west and north. As a result of the developing widespread upper-level ridge, Idalia will likely meander over the western Atlantic Ocean for several days and there is even an outside chance that it could loop back around to revisit Florida in a weakened state about a week from now. Meanwhile, Hurricane Franklin maintains status as a category 4 “major” system. It will pass to the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday bringing tropical storm conditions to the island. After that, Hurricane Franklin will push northeastward to the open waters of the North Atlantic as southwesterly flow ahead of an incoming upper-level trough steers it in that direction.
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