The tropical season in the Atlantic Basin officially got underway on June 1st and there is a growing threat for Florida from a system now located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. An area of showers and thunderstorms has better organized over the last 24 hours or so over the northwest Caribbean as atmospheric conditions are becoming more and more favorable for intensification. This system is likely to become the first named storm of the 2022 season (would be “Alex”) and is increasingly likely to bring heavy rainfall to western Cuba, central and southern Florida including the Keys, and to the Bahama Island chain.
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Low pressure will form along an incoming frontal system boundary zone today and it will enhance the chances of more rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition, the atmosphere will become quite unstable and this is likely to lead to some strong-to-potentially severe thunderstorm activity from later today into early tonight. High pressure will take back control of the weather around here on Friday and the weekend is shaping up to be quite nice across the entire Mid-Atlantic region.
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The passage of a back door cool front has brought relief today to the New York City metro region, New Jersey and it’ll turn out to be a bit better in the Philly area as well as easterly low-level winds have developed during the past few hours. Unfortunately, there will be no relief today in the DC metro region with highs likely to again be in the 90’s. This weak frontal boundary zone and another front will cause unsettled weather in the Mid-Atlantic from later today through tomorrow night that will include the chance for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. High pressure will take back control at the end of the week and the weekend is shaping up to be quite nice across the region.
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Another period of unsettled weather is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region from later today through tomorrow night and it can include some heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorm activity. A weak frontal boundary zone will stall out in the Mid-Atlantic region today and a strong cold front approaches later Thursday. The stalled-out boundary zone will be the focus of any shower or thunderstorm activity that forms later today and tonight and then low pressure will develop nearby on Thursday enhancing the chance of showers and potentially strong-to-severe thunderstorms. High pressure will take back control by the time we get to the weekend which is shaping up to be quite nice in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Hot weather dominated the scene today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and one of the ways to get relief is from a “conventional” cool frontal system that passes from west-to-east. However, long-time residents of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US know that one other way to get a break in the heat is for a back door cool front to slide from northwest-to-southwest which can produce dramatic temperature changes in a short period of time. That is exactly what happened today in Boston with a temperature drop of nearly 20 degrees in about 10 minutes and a big change is in store on Wednesday for New York City and New Jersey.
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A hot day begins the holiday-shortened week in the Mid-Atlantic region with high temperatures this afternoon near the 90 degree mark. A cold front approaches the region later tomorrow bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms. This front will tend to stall out by Thursday and an area of low pressure will ride along the boundary zone likely resulting in additional shower and thunderstorm activity. High pressure is likely to take control of the weather as we get to the weekend which may turn out to be quite nice with comfortably warm temperatures.
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The combination of an increasingly humid air mass, strong surface frontal system and a vigorous mid-level low will help to generate numerous showers in the Mid-Atlantic region from today into tonight and possible severe thunderstorms. In fact, there may be two bands of thunderstorms to closely monitor during this event- one during the mid-day/early afternoon hours and a second during the late evening. The main severe weather parameter threats will be damaging wind gusts and “flash-flooding” downpours., and isolated tornadoes are also on the table. The upper-level low will be rather slow-moving in an easterly direction and this will result in an unsettled weather day on Saturday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The upper-level will then exit off the coast by Sunday resulting in improvement to end the weekend and the weather on Monday, Memorial Day, should feature plenty of sunshine, very warm conditions, and highs well up in the 80’s.
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The combination of an increasingly humid air mass, strong surface frontal system and a vigorous mid-level low will help generate numerous showers on Friday and Friday night in the Mid-Atlantic region and possible severe thunderstorms. In fact, there may be two bands of thunderstorms to closely monitor during this event- one during the mid-day/early afternoon hours and a second during the late evening associated with the frontal passage. The main severe weather parameter threats will be damaging wind gusts, “flash-flooding” downpours, and isolated tornadoes are even possible. The upper-level low will be rather slow-moving from west-to-east and this is likely to result in an unsettled weather day on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region with scattered showers and strong thunderstorms. The upper-level will exit off the coast on Sunday resulting in improvement to end the weekend and the weather on Monday, Memorial Day, should feature plenty of sunshine, very warm conditions and highs well up in the 80’s.
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A strong frontal system will produce another round of showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region from Friday into Friday night and some of the storms can be on the strong-to-severe side with heavy downpours. The upper-level support for this system will be slow-moving and could result in some residual shower activity on Saturday as it drifts overhead and a thunderstorm is possible as well, but the day will not be a washout. This upper-level low will exit off the coast by Sunday resulting in improvement and then the weather on Monday, Memorial Day, should feature plenty of sunshine and highs well up in the 80’s.
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A strong frontal system will produce another round of showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and some of the storms can be on the strong-to-severe side. The upper-level support for this system will be slow-moving and could result in some residual shower activity on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region as it drifts overhead. This upper-level low will exit off the coast on Sunday resulting in improvement and then the weather on Monday, Memorial Day, should feature plenty of sunshine and highs in the 80’s.
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