Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are possible later today into early tonight as a strong low pressure system heads to the Great Lakes. There will be occasional showers here today and afternoon/evening thunderstorms and some of the rain will be heavy at times. Any thunderstorm that forms from mid-day on through the evening hours can result in damaging wind gusts and hail. In addition, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out in the Mid-Atlantic; primarily, in areas to the south of the PA/MD border. It turns colder and remains windy on Thursday following the late night passage of a strong cold front and gusts can surpass 45 mph or so. Looking ahead, the weekend will be chilly, but a big warmup next week could bring temperatures to the 70 degree mark in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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Ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak today and tonight with its focus on the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf coast. There is a high risk of damaging wind gusts in this scenario and tornadoes are certainly on the table with the possibility of a few strong ones. This threat shifts to the east coast on Wednesday where damaging wind gusts, heavy downpours, and even isolated tornadoes will be a possibility from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast US.
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A spring-like storm is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic region with windy and warmer conditions on Wednesday, a soaking rainfall, and a possible strong-to-severe thunderstorm. This same storm system will result in an enhanced risk of severe weather later today and tonight across the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley regions. The main risk both today in the Mississippi Valley and tomorrow in the Mid-Atlantic’s DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor will be for damaging wind gusts; however, isolated tornadoes are certainly on the table as well. It’ll turn cooler on Thursday and Friday behind the passage of a strong cold front and high pressure will build back into to the area.
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The month of March is now underway and it certainly can feature multiple severe weather outbreaks as the air becomes increasingly warm and humid across the southern states at the same time colder-than-normal air masses continue to push south and east from Canada into the US. The ingredients are falling into place for severe weather during each of the next three days as indeed colder-than-normal air from the western states will push eastward into a warmer-than-normal air mass that today will be centered over the central states. The main threat zone for severe weather today is likely to extend from Texas-to-Oklahoma-to-Kansas and then an enhanced risk is likely on Tuesday centered over the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley region. Spring-like storm conditions will reach the eastern states on Wednesday with windy, warmer weather, soaking rainfall, and the potential of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity.
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A spring-like storm is on the way for the middle of the week with soaking rainfall, windy and warmer conditions, and a possible strong thunderstorm as well. After a cold Monday and a milder Tuesday, temperatures will soar on Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front likely reaching 60 degrees. It’ll turn windy and colder behind the front on Thursday and Friday with high temperatures back in the upper 40’s as high pressure returns to the region.
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A cold front closes in on the area later today and it will produce some shower activity and perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm or two. Moderately chilly air will follow into the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday, but it then turns windy and milder on Saturday as a “clipper” system passes by well to the north of here. That system will drag a cold front through the region and it’ll turn quite cold once again for the early part of next week.
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Today’s weather features above-normal temperatures across much of the nation and the next couple of days will remain on the mild side in the Mid-Atlantic region with high temperatures approaching 60 degrees in some areas. We are about to flip the calendar from February to March and it appears quite likely that there will be occasional cold air intrusions from Canada into the US during the next few weeks. Supporting evidence for additional cold air outbreaks during the month of March include the strong likelihood of a “disrupted” stratospheric polar vortex with significant warming near the North Pole by the middle of March and the movement of a tropical disturbance known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). These occasional cold air outbreaks will contribute to an overall active weather pattern in the month of March and likely set the stage multiple severe weather outbreaks. In addition, the continuing cold air intrusions will certainly keep hope alive for snow lovers with multiple upcoming chances; especially, across interior higher elevation locations of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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High pressure takes control of the weather today and provides us with plenty of sunshine and quite mild conditions for the afternoon. A cold front reaches the region later tomorrow and there will likely be some shower activity associated with this system to go along with the continuing mild conditions. Colder air follows into the Mid-Atlantic for Friday, but it quickly turns milder again on Saturday as a “clipper” system slides well to the north of here. That system will drag a cold front through the region on Saturday night and it’ll turn cold once again for the early part of next week.
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Today’s weather features above-normal temperatures across much of the nation and the remainder of the week will be generally on the mild side including in the Mid-Atlantic region where high temperatures of 60+ degrees will be commonplace. As nice as it may feel during the next few days, it appears likely that additional cold air outbreaks will make their way from Canada into the US during the next few weeks and this “back and forth” in temperatures could set the stage for multiple severe weather outbreaks during the month of March perhaps with a focus in the region from the Gulf coast to the Tennessee Valley. As the new month progresses, increasing strength of the sun will allow for warmer air masses to develop down across the southern states and any incoming cold air mass from Canada can produce “clash zones” with the prospects of severe weather. One such threat could take place next week somewhere in the middle of the nation with cold air from the north and west pushing towards warm, humid air to the south and east and there can be a repeat performance in the week to follow.
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A weak cold front will cross the area later today and it can produce a couple of afternoon showers and then high pressure returns at mid-week…both days should feature afternoon high temperatures in the low-to-mid 50’s. A stronger cold front passes through later Thursday with some shower activity and it turns colder at the end of the week. A “clipper” system will pass by to the north on Saturday and it’ll turn milder, but then another cold frontal passage ushers in colder air for Sunday and Monday.
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