An on-going stratospheric warming event that began in late February increases the chance for additional cold air outbreaks as we wind down the month of March from the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In fact, the typical lag time between a stratospheric warming event over the polar region and its impact on US temperature patterns suggests there may very well be cold air outbreaks to deal with in this part of the country at least until the middle of April. As it turns out, big-league baseball gets underway in earnest in one week’s time on Thursday, March 27th, and the early part of the season may feature plenty of cold weather games thanks in large part to the on-going big-league stratospheric warming event. In addition, the influx of colder-than-normal air masses in coming weeks keeps hope alive across the northern states for those wishing for more snow...yes, even though spring season is now officially underway.
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A strong cold front will head this way today from the Ohio Valley and it’ll help to spawn the formation of low pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coastline by later tonight. The combination of the low pressure system and cold front will bring rain to the region from late today into tonight and winds will kick up as well. In fact, those winds can gust to 40 mph or so by late tonight and through the day on Friday which will be a cooler day compared to today. A weak front can bring some clouds to the area on Saturday and perhaps a shower or two, and then it turns cooler on its heels to close out the upcoming weekend. Another cold frontal system can bring more rain to the area by the early part of next week.
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High pressure will control the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region for another day providing us with a mix of sun and clouds and a very mild afternoon. A strong cold front pushes into the area on Thursday and low pressure will form along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As a result, a decent rainfall is likely here from late tomorrow into tomorrow night with 0.5” to 1.0” likely and it is not out of the question that the rain mixes with snow before it ends across some of the far northern and western suburbs. Colder air will follow the frontal passage to close out the work week with very windy conditions featuring gusts to 50 mph or so.
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High pressure has taken control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll provide us with pretty decent weather through tomorrow featuring plenty of sunshine each day and mild afternoons. A strong cold front arrives on Thursday and low pressure will form along the coastline resulting in a decent rainfall around here during the afternoon and evening hours. Colder air will follow the frontal passage to close out the work week with windy conditions expected as well on Friday.
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There will be clouds and lingering showers early today as a cold front works its way through the region and then high pressure takes control later today with some clearing skies. In fact, the next couple of days will be rather nice around here with mild conditions and plenty of sunshine on Tuesday and Wednesday. A strong cold front approaches on Thursday and it will bring additional showers to the area with colder air to follow for the end of the week.
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There will be plenty of cloudiness around early today, but clearing skies this afternoon can allow for temperatures to turn milder compared to Thursday and then they’ll surge later this weekend to very mild levels on Sunday. The weekend will become quite wet, however, with the chance of light rain/drizzle on Saturday and Saturday night, and then occasional rainfall is likely on Sunday. The rain on Sunday can become heavy at times and the winds can be quite strong as a cold front slides eastward towards the coast. In addition, there can be a strong-to-severe thunderstorm or two raising the chance for damaging wind gusts in the Mid-Atlantic region. It turns cooler on Monday following the passage of a cold front, but as is increasingly common for this time of year, the cool down should be short-lived. It should become very mild again in the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week.
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Numerous ingredients are coming together for what is likely to be a multi-day severe weather event from the central US to the east coast during the period from later Friday to Sunday night. These ingredients include not just one, but two strong upper-level lows, powerful jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, an influx of warm, humid air on the storm’s front side, and a surface low pressure system that will deepen to rarely ever seen barometric pressure levels as it moves from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes. All severe weather parameters are on the table during this multi-day event including swaths of intense and damaging winds, strong tornadoes, hail, and torrential rainfall that can result in flash flooding.
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An ocean flow of air will continue to keep it on the cool side around here and there will be plenty of low clouds around limiting any potential heating during the day. There is a total lunar eclipse later tonight, but these same low clouds can have a negative impact on overall viewing conditions. If it is indeed visible, the “totality” phase of the lunar eclipse will last for about an hour from around 2:30-3:30 AM.
Temperatures will climb a bit on Friday with the possible return of some sunshine, and then they’ll surge this weekend to very mild levels on both Saturday and Sunday. The weekend will become quite wet, however, with the chance of showers later Saturday and Saturday night and then occasional rainfall on Sunday. The rain on Sunday can become heavy at times as a strong cold front slides eastward towards the coast and there can be a strong thunderstorm included as well. It turns cooler on Monday in the Mid-Atlantic region following the passage of the cold frontal system, but the cool down will be brief and we’ll get very mild again by the middle of next week.
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The passage of a “back door” cold front will bring cooler conditions to the region for both today and tomorrow as low-level winds have shifted from a southwesterly direction to north-northeast. (I refer to this kind of cold front as a “back door” since it “sneaks in” from our northeast instead of the more conventional approach of a cold front from our west). Temperatures will begin to rebound on Friday and it’ll be quite mild this weekend. The weekend becomes quite wet, however, with occasional rainfall likely from later Saturday through Sunday. Some of the rain can be heavy at times late this weekend and a strong thunderstorm is possible. It turns cooler on Monday following the passage of a more conventional “west-to-east-moving” cold frontal system.
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The combination of an intense upper-level low, powerful jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, strong southerly low-level flow of warm, moist air, and a deepening surface low pressure system will likely lead to a severe weather outbreak from later Friday into Friday night. Indeed, this threat of severe weather may continue right through the upcoming weekend as it shifts slowly to the east reaching the Atlantic seaboard by the latter part of the weekend. The deepening surface low pressure system may reach central pressures not often seen in this part of the nation which will result in a very strong pressure gradient potentially leading to widespread damaging winds. In addition, this unfolding atmospheric setup can lead to some strong tornado activity from later Friday into Saturday across portions of the central and eastern US.
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