The day dawns with the lowest temperatures of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region and, in many spots, it is near or at a record low for the date. After a very cold Tuesday, temperatures will moderate at mid-week as a “clipper” low pressure system pushes well to the north of here resulting in a stiff southwesterly flow of air on Wednesday that’ll bring in slightly milder air. Some precipitation is likely on Wednesday with this initial “clipper” system and - despite the warm up - it may still be cold enough in some areas for a mix of rain and snow at the onset. Another “clipper” system can bring some snow to the area later Friday and then a third one can produce some snow in the Saturday-to-Sunday time frame. That last “clipper” system will usher in another bitter cold Arctic air mass for the late weekend and early part of next week…warmer weather is possible later next week.
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The cold pattern that has brought relentless cold in recent days from Alaska to the Mid-Atlantic region will continue for at least another week or so. The new work week begins with some frigid air in the eastern states and overnight lows in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor will drop to their lowest levels of the season so far. “Clipper” low pressure systems will swing cold fronts through the northeastern states during the next few days limiting any chance for a sustained warmup. One “clipper” can bring rain, ice and/or snow to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US at mid-week and a second system can bring a touch of snow in the late week. Over the weekend, low pressure may ride along the Arctic boundary zone, and this system could bring some accumulating snow to the Mid-Atlantic region to go along with the well below-normal temperatures that should last into the early part of next week.
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The week will start off with far below-normal temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region following the passage of a strong cold front on Sunday night. Temperatures will struggle today to climb past the freezing mark and overnight lows should be in the lower teens in most areas...coldest readings so far this season. Some moderation in temperatures will come by the middle of the week as a low pressure system passes by to our north, and then a “clipper” system could produce some snow and/or rain around here later in the week. Looking ahead, another frigid air mass is likely to impact much of the central and eastern US this weekend supported by an extremely strong Canadian high pressure system.
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Low pressure is pushing to the northeast today from the southeastern states and its moisture field is moving into some very cold and dry Arctic air across the Mid-Atlantic region. The result is that snow has broken out across the southern Mid-Atlantic region and accumulations are likely today in the region from DC/Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula to southern New Jersey. In fact, the DC metro region can see as much as 2 or 3 inches of snow and as much as 4 or 5 inches can accumulate in sections of central and southern Virginia. The Philly and NYC metro regions will be on the northern fringe of this system with light snow a possibility and perhaps a coating in some areas.
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An Arctic blast that resulted in numerous record low temperatures this morning across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is on its way to the Mid-Atlantic region, and it will set the stage for an accumulating snow event on Friday in the southern half of the area from DC/Virginia to the Delmarva Peninsula to the southern part of New Jersey. Temperatures in the overnight hours will drop into the teens in many of the suburbs along the I-95 corridor following the passage of an Arctic cold frontal system later today. Moisture on Friday will spread to the northeast from the Tennessee Valley and run into this very cold and dry Arctic air mass and snow will break out early in the day across much of Virginia and the DC metro region...in other words, both the AM and PM commutes can be slippery in these areas on Friday.
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An Arctic cold front will approach the region later today and winds will be on the increase as a result and there can be scattered snow showers as well. The coldest air so far this season pushes into the area later tonight and overnight lows are liable to be in the middle teens across most suburban locations. Low pressure will push northeastward from the southeastern states later tomorrow and it could throw some snow our way in the afternoon and evening with small accumulations possible on the order of a coating to an inch.
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The month of December has gotten off to a cold start across much of the eastern half of the nation and there will be multiple cold air outbreaks in coming days. Two signals that have foreshadowed a cold period include an unusually early season stratospheric warming event and the movement of a tropical disturbance into a position that favors colder-than-normal weather across much of the nation. In fact, there appears to be a second burst of stratospheric warming in the offing for later this month resulting in a “stretched” polar vortex, and the tropical disturbance will likely persist in much of the same “cold” position” for awhile longer...both of these favor the idea of additional cold air outbreaks as we progress through the month.
The cold pattern has been quite active as well and multiple systems will have to be watched in coming days. On Friday, low pressure will develop over the Deep South and head in an northeasterly direction. This system is likely to produce some accumulating snow in the southern half of the Mid-Atlantic region and looks like a light-to-moderate snow event. Another low pressure system may pull out of the southeastern states by early next week and head in an northeasterly direction at the same time a “clipper” moves southeastward across the Great Lakes…we’ll monitor this activity as it could result in some accumulating snow for the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Later next week, it appears a couple of other “clipper” systems will drop southeastward from southwestern Canada into the Great Lakes and ultimately, to the Northeast US. Finally, the significant change in recent days of an index value known as the “Southern Oscillation” is raising a red flag that the chance of an east coast storm will be on the rise somewhere down the road as the sub-tropical jet stream likely becomes activated.
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High pressure takes control of the weather for the mid-week and then a strong cold frontal passage will take place here by tomorrow night and it will usher in the coldest air so far this season. As a result, temperatures are likely to bottom out in the middle teens across most suburban locations by early Friday morning and highs later in the day will be confined to the low-to-mid 30’s with an increase in cloud cover. Low pressure will close in on the area from the south later in the day on Friday and it could produce some accumulating snow in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, to the south of the PA/MD border.
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Low pressure will head to a position off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by later today at the same high pressure to our north retreats into the northwestern Atlantic. It’ll be cold enough for awhile this morning for snow, sleet and freezing rain to fall across many suburban locations, but the influx of slightly milder ocean air later today will cause a transition to plain rain throughout the area. Accumulations are possible before the changeover on the order of a coating in the metro region to an inch or two in some of the northern and western suburban locations…watch for AM slick spots on the roadways.
High pressure takes control of the weather for the mid-week and then a cold frontal passage on Thursday night will usher in the coldest air so far this season. As a result, temperatures are likely to bottom out in the upper teens across most suburban locations by early Friday morning. After that, we’ll have to monitor the movement of low pressure across the southeastern states. There is a chance that this system pushes far enough to the north by Friday night/ Saturday to produce some snow in the Mid-Atlantic region...we’ll closely monitor this threat during the next few days.
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December has begun on a cold note across the northeastern states and below-normal temperatures are likely on average through at least the first half of the month. Two factors that have been pointing us to an extended cold stretch this month include an unusually early stratospheric warming event over the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere, and the movement of a tropical disturbance along the equator that is moving through locations which favor colder-than-normal weather in the eastern states.
The cold pattern will remain active as well with the next storm system to impact the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US on Tuesday, and this follows a significant Great Lakes snow event late last week and a major snowstorm in the Midwest this past weekend. The best chance for significant snow on Tuesday will be across the interior sections of the northeastern states where several inches of snow are likely and heavy rain is the main threat along coastal areas from southern New Jersey to the Delmarva Peninsula. The I-95 corridor will be in the “battle zone” region for awhile on Tuesday morning with snow and ice likely at the front end that will transition to plain rain for the main part of the storm. Small snow accumulations are possible before the transition to plain rain with a coating to an inch or so possible in some of the northern and western suburbs...watch for slick spots during the AM hours.
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