A cold air mass is sweeping across the nation as we wind down the month of October and it will reach the eastern states shortly on the heels of a late day strong cold frontal passage. Record low temperatures have been set or threatened in many spots today all the way from California to the nation’s mid-section and numerous record lows are likely to be set with this cold air outbreak during the next few mornings. Looking ahead, many signs point to additional cold air outbreaks from Canada into the US during the next couple of weeks and snow may become an early season threat in many parts of the country where it hasn’t already fallen.
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Accumulating snow is falling today from Montana to the Dakotas and NW Minnesota and the cold air mass in that part of the country is going to spread south and east in coming days. In fact, the transition on the calendar in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from the last few days of October to the first few days of November will be quite dramatic. Record challenging warmth in the northeastern quadrant of the nation will extend into the first half of the weekend and there will be a step down in temperatures early next week so that by early Wednesday morning, temperatures will be at their lowest levels so far this season. The influx of the cold air mass may even lead to some snow or a mix of snow, ice and rain across interior higher-elevation locations by the middle of next week.
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The transition on the calendar from October-to-November will be pretty dramatic across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US from a weather point of view. The latter part of this week will feature record challenging warmth in much of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US where high temperatures of up to 80 degrees are on the table. The weather will change dramatically next week, however, with the influx of a cold air mass that could feature some snow or a mix of snow, ice and rain in the same part of the country that experiences the surge of warmth later this week. Next week’s cold shot promises to be fairly quick – likely a 2-3 day event – as warmer air is likely to surge back to the north and east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by the first weekend of November.
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Two big weather stories over the next several days will include a Pacific Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico “tropical hand-off” and yet another weekend rain event is in the cards for the Mid-Atlantic region. Hurricane Lidia will head into western Mexico later today and some of its tropical moisture will make it across Mexico at mid-week giving a boost to a tropical wave sitting over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Surface low pressure with a Pacific Ocean-to-Gulf of Mexico tropical connection will form by later tomorrow over the western Gulf and then spread some heavy rainfall across the northern Gulf/Southeast US as it takes a path to the east-to-northeast.
Meanwhile, a deepening upper-level low pressure system will cross the nation from west-to-east in coming days and set off the development of surface low pressure over the Ohio valley by week’s end. This primary or initial low will then give way to a secondary low pressure system likely to form early this weekend along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The result will continue a recent trend in the Mid-Atlantic region with some weekend rain and very cool conditions featuring a persistent onshore flow of air.
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Tropical systems in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans may impact the weather across the US in coming days in somewhat unusual manners. Tropical Storm Philippe has been meandering over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean recently and it will soon accelerate to the north and impact Maine/Nova Scotia with rain and wind later this weekend. After that, the remnants of TS Philippe will get “absorbed” into an incoming upper-level trough over the southeastern part of Canada. This influx of tropical moisture into the upper-level trough will act to energize the system and it will become a big contributor to a temperature pattern change in the eastern states with much cooler weather from this weekend and well into next week. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific Ocean is now featuring multiple tropical systems and one of these is likely hit the west coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. After that, this tropical system that originated in the Pacific Ocean is likely to cross over Mexico and help to spawn tropical activity over the Gulf of Mexico which potentially can result in rain across the southeastern states.
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Temperatures are some 10+ degrees above-normal today in the Mid-Atlantic region, but big changes are on the way this weekend and the change to noticeably cooler conditions may not be just an “in-and-out” affair. Strong upper-level ridging across the eastern US and Canada will give way to an upper-level trough of low pressure this weekend that will tend to hang around through much of October ensuring additional cold air outbreaks. This initial blast of much cooler air into the east will follow an early weekend strong cold frontal passage and Sunday promises to be the coolest day so far this fall season in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. In addition to the cool down, winds will become an important factor by Sunday as the overall pressure gradient tightens across the northeastern states as Tropical Storm Philippe merges with the initial incoming upper-level trough system.
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There is no tropical activity of any immediate concern across the nation, but the overall weather pattern is having a pretty big impact on three different sections of the US. An active jet stream across the northern Pacific is bringing multiple storms to the Pacific NW that will generate lots of rain for lower elevations and some early season snowfall for the higher elevation locations. A stalled-out frontal boundary zone will combine with an abundance of low-level moisture to bring significant rainfall amounts to Florida in coming days. Meanwhile, in the Mid-Atlantic region, it’s the same old song with damp, breezy and unusually cool conditions that began during the weekend with the approach and passage of Tropical Storm Ophelia.
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A storm is beginning to take shape today over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean where sea surface temperatures remain at unusually warm levels as high as 30 degrees (Celsius). This developing system will take on tropical characteristics and move in a general north-to-northwest direction over the next couple of days. Later in the weekend, this storm is likely to slow down some as it makes a turn from a northerly direction to northeast. Whether or not it becomes a named tropical storm by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (and there is an outside chance of it reaching category 1 hurricane status), this system will be quite impactful in terms of rain, wind and surf all the way from the Carolinas to southern New England.
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A storm threat continues for the late week/weekend near and along the east coast with the potential of heavy rain and strong onshore winds. Low pressure will form just off the Southeast US coastline over very warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic and likely take on “tropical” characteristics. Whether or not this system becomes classified as “tropical” remains to be seen; however, the end result could be the same with heavy rain on the table and persistent strong onshore winds; especially, for coastal sections from the Carolinas to southern New England.
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A storm threat exists for the weekend near or along the east coast with the potential of a widespread soaking rain event featuring persistent and strong onshore winds. Low pressure looks like it will form late this week just off the Southeast US coastline over very warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic and likely take on “tropical” characteristics. With high pressure expected to build to its north and east, this low pressure system should push northward right through the eastern states. Whether or not this system becomes classified as “tropical” remains to be seen; however, the end result could be the same with heavy rain and strong winds on the table.
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