Just when it looked like El Nino was getting ready to overspread the tropical Pacific Ocean with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures something somewhat unexpected has taken place. While still above normal, sea surface temperatures have actually dropped quite noticeably in recent days in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean near the west coast of South America. Computer forecast models still are generally quite supportive of the idea of a strengthening El Nino going into the middle and latter parts of the year, but recent observations certainly have to raise some questions about those predictions.
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Today's soaking rain and thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region appears to be just the opening round in what is looking like a very active weather pattern for much of the nation in the foreseeable future. The next ten days or so will feature wave-after-wave traveling across the country in a general west-to-east fashion and each one can produce snow over the Rockies and in New England, severe weather in the central and southern states, and significant rain in the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, its been somewhat dry in recent weeks in much of the south-central and eastern US and those are the regions that are most likely to get pounded with significant rainfall in this unfolding active weather pattern.
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The sun is currently blank with no visible sunspots and this is the 14th straight day with a blank look which is the longest such stretch since April 2010 according to spaceweather.com. Historically weak solar cycle 24 continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum. In April 2010 - the last time there was a two week stretch with no visible sunspots - the sun was emerging from the last solar minimum which was historically long and deep. There have already been 26 spotless days in 2017 (34% of the entire year) and this follows 32 spotless days last year which occurred primarily during the latter part of the year. The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum - probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020. By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this has some important consequences.
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Mount Etna is located on the eastern edge of the Italian island of Sicily - the largest island in the Mediterranean Sea - and it erupted yesterday which is its third eruption of the year. Etna is Europe’s tallest and most active volcano and has been erupting for millennia in the southern part of Europe. It has been particularly unsettled in recent weeks and there was a group of tourists and a BBC camera crew nearby at the time of Thursday’s explosion. The group was pelted by steam and boiling hot rocks as Etna erupted and sprinted to a nearby rescue although ten were injured, none seriously.
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Southern California got slammed on Friday and early Saturday from one intense storm and yet another is now pounding away at northern California. A widespread 3-6 inch rainfall is expected in the San Francisco Bay and Sacramento Valley regions by early tomorrow from this latest in a series of storm systems. Even higher amounts of rain are possible in the higher elevations of the Santa Cruz Mountains over the next 24 hours or so. To go along with the heavy rain, there will be strong winds today and heavy mountain snows. As this seemingly daily onslaught continues in California, some amazing numbers are piling up with respect to rain and snowfall amounts.
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The past six weeks have seen the demise of weak La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean and now there are signs of an unfolding El Nino. Ocean temperatures have increased to more than 2.0°C above normal just off the coast of Peru and this could very well develop into a more widespread event. Numerous computer forecast models now indicate a growing likelihood for an El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific – some as early as the spring in the Northern Hemisphere. If El Nino does form, it could have serious implications on global weather patterns and the 2017 Atlantic Basin tropical season.
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The news does not get any better for California. A monster storm will impact the state from late tonight into early Saturday and southern California will take the biggest hit from this system. In fact, this could turn out to be one of the worst storms in years for the southern part of the state with not just the heavy rain, but also wind and possible power outages. In addition, intense rainfall, especially over areas with steep terrain or with recent burn scars, may lead to rapid runoff; resulting in flash flooding and/or mudslides/debris flows. By early next week, yet another Pacific Ocean storm will head towards the state and this one is likely to concentrate its wrath on the northern part of California raising new concerns for the Oroville Dam.
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Historically weak solar cycle 24 continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum. There have already been 11 spotless days during 2017 and this follows 32 spotless days that occurred during the latter part of 2016. The blank look to the sun will increase in frequency over the next couple of years leading up to the next solar minimum - probably to be reached in late 2019 or 2020. By one measure, the current solar cycle is the third weakest since record keeping began in 1755 and it continues a weakening trend since solar cycle 21 peaked in 1980. One of the impacts of low solar activity is the increase of cosmic rays that can penetrate into the Earth’s upper atmosphere and this has some important consequences.
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There have been many occasions in the past in which floods have followed droughts in California and this recent time period is yet another example. In California, incredible amounts of rain have piled up in recent weeks across low-lying areas of the state, mountains of snow have accumulated in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains - and more is on the way. After a couple days with a break in the action, another storm is likely to arrive in northern California by later Wednesday and continue into early Thursday. After that, a second and very intense storm looks like it will slam the entire state by the end of the work week with southern California likely being especially hard hit with not just heavy rain, but also high wind, possible power outages and flash flooding.
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Our “January thaw” period is about to come to an end in the Mid-Atlantic region. A colder weather pattern will unfold over the next few days – set off by a significant stratospheric warming event near the North Pole - and it will result in rather sustained cold for the region. In fact, numerous recent years (2007, 2010, 2013, 2015) that featured major stratospheric warming events during the latter part of January all generally featured significantly colder-than-normal months of February in the eastern US.
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