The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another (still unnamed) wave closing in on the Lesser Antilles. This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and is likely to intensify over the next couple of days as it continues on a general west-to-northwest track. There is a high probability that this system intensifies enough to become classified as a tropical storm and, if so, it would be named “Isaias” – the ninth named storm of the still relatively young 2020 tropical season and the earliest date for the “I” storm. There is a good chance that this system continues on a track that’ll bring it to near Puerto Rico later this week and then to the southern Bahama Islands at weeks end. After that, there is a growing chance that the likely-to-be-named “Isaias” will threaten Florida and the Southeast US by the latter part of the upcoming weekend.
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The week started off on a hot note with no rain-fall on Monday, but the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase later today as a cool frontal system approaches the region. Any thunderstorm late today or early tonight associated with the frontal system can be on the strong side. The front will tend to push very slowly southward through the end of the week as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes. As a result, it'll stay somewhat unsettled and our temperatures will trend slightly downward by week's end with highs on Friday likely confined to the middle 80’s.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another (still unnamed) wave over the central Atlantic. This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and is likely to intensify over the next few days as it takes a general W-NW track. There is a good chance that this system moves first towards the northern Caribbean island chain and then to near the Bahamas over the next several days. Whether or not this tropical system ultimately impacts the Southeast US may be largely dependent on an unusually strong upper-level trough that is likely to dig into the south-central states by the weekend.
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It’ll turn quite hot today to start the new work week in the Mid-Atlantic region with afternoon high temperatures well up in the 90’s. After a mild and muggy night, temperatures will rebound into the 90’s again on Tuesday and a frontal system will approach the area. This front could set off some strong thunderstorm activity from late tomorrow into tomorrow night. High pressure will slowly build over the Great Lakes later in the week and this should result in some relief around here by week’s end with highs likely holding in the 80’s.
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The Atlantic Basin now features three tropical systems to closely monitor in this very active early part of the 2020 tropical season. Tropical Storm Hanna is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico and is on a path to make landfall on Saturday in southeastern Texas - quite likely as a hurricane. Tropical Storm Gonzalo has been relatively steady recently in terms of its intensity, but there are signs that it should weaken over the next couple of days as it moves towards the Caribbean Sea. A third and quite large tropical wave has just emerged from the west coast of Africa and it has great potential for intensification over the next several days. This third system is likely to head to a position quite close to where Tropical Storm Gonzalo currently resides, and it very well could have an impact on the US in 10-15 days.
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A cool frontal system will stall out for awhile today along the I-95 corridor and this can lead to the formation of a few more showers and thunderstorms. The front will slip to the southeast by later tonight and this will allow for drier air to move into the Mid-Atlantic region resulting in more comfortable conditions to start the weekend. It will, however, get quite warm on Saturday afternoon with highs near 90 degrees and then after high pressure pushes off the east coast later in the weekend, temperatures will likely climb into the 90’s for highs on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains quite active with Tropical Storm Hannah over the western Gulf of Mexico closing in on the Texas east coast and Tropical Storm Gonzalo churning to the west over the central Atlantic. This second system will likely end up pushing into the Caribbean Sea this weekend.
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A potpourri of topics today ranging from another day with a strong thunderstorm threat in the Mid-Atlantic region to an active Atlantic Basin tropical scene to an update on Comet NEOWISE which is making its closest approach to Earth later tonight. First, on the weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region, yet another wave of energy aloft will combine with considerable amounts of moisture in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere to bring another shot at strong storms later today and tonight. Second, on the tropics, an impressive tropical wave over the central Gulf of Mexico is likely headed to the east coast of Texas by the early part of the weekend and it will result in heavy rainfall in that part of the southern US. A second tropical system, Tropical Storm Gonzalo, has run into a bit of dry air which has halted its intensification in recent hours as it continues to push towards the Caribbean Sea. A third tropical wave has just emerged off the west coast of Africa and it may become an important player to monitor next week. Finally, Comet NEOWISE makes its closest approach to the Earth later tonight and it won’t be back around these parts for about 6800 years.
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A cool frontal system will approach the region later today and will combine with upper-level energy to produce more showers for the Mid-Atlantic region and possible strong thunderstorms. Any shower or storm today and tonight can result in additional heavy rainfall. The front stalls along the I-95 corridor region on Friday and there will still be the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Slightly drier air will arrive for the weekend and the rain chances on both Saturday and Sunday will be quite limited. As high pressure pushes off the east coast early next week into the familiar “Bermuda-high” position, the heat and humidity is likely to build up again in the Mid-Atlantic region with the development of low-level southwesterly winds on the backside of the high.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has become quite active with an impressive system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and also a newly named tropical storm over the central tropical Atlantic. The Gulf system has a chance to intensify into a named tropical storm over the next couple of days as it heads towards the northwestern part of the Gulf and Tropical Storm Gonzalo could very well climb to hurricane status over the next couple of days in the central Atlantic.
Elsewhere, a wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere is combining with a stalled out frontal boundary zone and plenty of moisture to spark some strong thunderstorm activity at mid-day in the western part of the Mid-Atlantic region and across the Ohio Valley. Some of these thunderstorm cells will make it into the I-95 corridor at day’s end and likely reach strong-to-severe levels with the potential of damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
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The combination of hot and humid conditions, energy in the upper atmosphere, and a stalled out frontal boundary zone will increase chances later today for showers and thunderstorms and that threat will continue tonight as well. Given the unstable atmospheric conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region, any storm that does form can reach strong-to-severe levels with gusty winds, hail and heavy rainfall. Another frontal system will approach the region on Thursday and this too will bring about a chance for showers and thunderstorms and some of these storms can be strong-to-severe as well. Following that next frontal system, some relief of the heat and humidity will arrive on Friday and it’ll remain rather seasonal on Saturday as well. Heat and humidity will build back into the region early next week as high pressure pushes off the eastern seaboard and a west-to-southwest flow of warmer and more humid air develops around here.
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