Hurricane Laura could become a “major” hurricane before making landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday likely somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana border. Hurricane Laura has cleared the island of Cuba and is now pushing over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The combination of weak wind shear and very high sea surface temperatures will contribute to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hours. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall in the western Gulf coastal region, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states and result in heavy rainfall and potential severe weather and then the remnants may turn to the east, interact with a frontal system, and potentially produce heavy rainfall and severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region early in the upcoming weekend.
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A cold front will approach the region later today and there are likely to be scattered PM showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic and some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels. After a generally quiet day on Wednesday, this same front will lift back to the north as a warm front by early Thursday and our temperatures are likely to spike into the middle 90’s for afternoon highs. After that, we’ll monitor the remains of Tropical Storm Laura as they could push northward into the south-central US later in the week and then could turn eastward and impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday – potentially bringing some heavy rainfall here and strong thunderstorms. Tropical Storm Laura could reach "major" hurricane status before making landfall late Wednesday night possibly near the TX/LA border.
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While the main focus of attention has been on tropical activity in recent days, there has been some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region and that threat will continue from this afternoon into mid-week. A surface trough of low pressure situated in the I-95 corridor is helping to fuel the formation of numerous showers and thunderstorms across western portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and some of these will make it into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later in the day and early tonight. A cold frontal system will then approach the I-95 corridor later Tuesday and it too can generate some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. As that same frontal system stalls out just to the south of here on Wednesday, there still can be some strong thunderstorm activity to monitor at mid-week.
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Tropical Storm Laura is a growing threat for the coastline region of Texas and Louisiana with a possible landfall late Wednesday. Tropical Storm Laura is very likely to intensify into hurricane status once out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and it could become a “major” hurricane (i.e., category 3 or higher). Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco has weakened as it nears the central Gulf coastal region due to wind shear in its vicinity. The low-level circulation center of Tropical Storm Marco has been displaced from the main area of convection (thunderstorms) and it will tend to dissipate over the next few days.
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Tropical Storm Marco is undergoing weakening as it approaches the central Gulf coastal region due to wind shear in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. The wind shear is being generated in an area that is between an upper-level trough to the west and an upper-level ridge to the east. There is little chance that Marco intensifies from this point on and it should fall apart over the next few days. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Laura is moving along the southern part of Cuba and it will enter the Gulf of Mexico by early tomorrow and likely intensify into hurricane status as it rides over the very warm waters. Tropical Storm Laura is then likely to heads towards the border region of Texas and Louisiana with a possible landfall as a hurricane on Wednesday night or Thursday. The remains of the Tropical Storm Laura could actually bring some heavy rainfall to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region by the upcoming weekend. In the near-term, there can be scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight and more numerous storms on Tuesday – some of which can be strong-to-severe.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues and there is likely to a “double-strike” of tropical storms on the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Marco is now out over the open waters of the very warm Gulf of Mexico and is likely headed towards a landfall on Monday in the central Gulf region (Louisiana). Tropical Storm Marco is now flirting with hurricane status and its trek over the very warm water of the Gulf could give it the boost needed to attain category one hurricane status. Tropical Storm Laura is currently interacting with the island of Hispaniola and it too is likely to make a run towards the central Gulf region (Louisiana/Texas border region) by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Laura may also get a boost from the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico which could boost it to hurricane status before landfall later in the week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start and two systems are likely to have a high impact on the Gulf of Mexico by the early and middle parts of next week. One system is likely to cross over or right near the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico in the near-term and then push over the western part of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Texas/Louisiana border region. A second system is likely headed near or over the northern Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Haiti/Dominican Republic, and Cuba in the near-term and then perhaps through the Florida Straits before entering the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Both of these systems are likely to intensify into named tropical storms status – one would be “Laura” and the other “Marco” – and perhaps even to hurricane status before possible landfalls next week as high sea surface temperatures will aid in further intensification.
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High pressure will try to stay in control today, but a frontal boundary zone can result in a few scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. A series of disturbances will keep it even more unsettled here this weekend and there will be a daily shot of showers and thunderstorms with the threat primarily focused on the afternoon and evening hours. High pressure resumes control early next week and we’ll likely experience lots of sunshine from Monday through Wednesday and very warm conditions. Elsewhere, the tropics are very active and two different systems are likely going to have a high impact on the Gulf of Mexico region by the early or middle parts of next week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of August. There are now two tropical depressions in the Atlantic Basin which are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days with the Gulf of Mexico the likely high impact zone by the early or middle of next week. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A “teleconnection” index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea for increased tropical activity over the next couple of week. In addition, the latter part of August is a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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A cool frontal system passed through the region last night and its passage ushered in a reinforcing shot of pretty comfortable air for late August. High pressure will resume control today and help to provide plenty of sunshine for the area. Temperatures today will hold in the low-to-mid 80's for afternoon highs and then top out in the middle 80's by week's end. A series of disturbances will keep it somewhat unsettled around here this weekend. Elsewhere, while the eastern US enjoys pleasant weather, it remains quite hot out in the western US. In the tropics, a parade of systems are lined up from the Caribbean Sea to Africa assuring an active stretch of weather as we progress through the part of August.
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