The noontime temperatures in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor were especially low for this time of year and several spots may indeed set “record low maximum” temperatures for the date. Stubborn surface low pressure continues to spin near the Mid-Atlantic coastline at mid-day and it is supported by a strong upper-level low. As a result, winds at the lower levels of the atmosphere have been strong and persistent from a north-northeast direction contributing to the unusual chill. Looking ahead, it looks like additional very chilly air masses are headed to the Great Lakes, Midwest and northeastern quadrant of the country in coming days and weeks with the next shot arriving for the upcoming weekend.
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Stubborn low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline will impact the Mid-Atlantic region into later tomorrow with occasional rain, persistent winds and coastal flooding will continue to be a problem at times of high tide. In terms of temperatures, if you think this is colder-than-normal for early October, you would be correct. The normal high at Reagan National Airport is around 74 degrees on this date and some spots in the region may indeed set a record today for “lowest maximum temperature”. By later tomorrow, this lingering low pressure system will finally be able to exit out into the open waters of the Atlantic as the next frontal system begins to head this way from Canada. There will be noticeable improvement in the weather on Thursday and then a strong cold front crosses the region on Friday paving the way for much cooler-than-normal conditions again here this weekend.
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Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline will continue to impact the Mid-Atlantic region into the middle part of the week with rain, wind and chilly conditions along with coastal flooding. This system which is connected to a post-tropical Ian will tend to drift away from the coast later today only to return on Tuesday and this will extend the nasty weather into early Wednesday. An upper-level trough to our northwest will then be able to finally kick this system out-to-sea by Thursday ahead of the next cool front that ushers in another cool air mass for the weekend.
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Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline will continue to impact the Mid-Atlantic region into mid-week with occasional rain, windy and chilly conditions for the early part of October. The low will actually drift away from the coastline later today, but it will return on Tuesday and produce more rain around here into early Wednesday. Finally, by later Wednesday, this lingering system will be able to exit out into the open waters of the Atlantic and the weather improves later this week. Another frontal system arrives at week’s end and it should usher in another cool air mass for the weekend.
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Ian has returned to hurricane status on Thursday evening over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the western Atlantic Ocean. It is likely to make another landfall as a hurricane…this time in South Carolina and likely near Charleston at mid-day. Rain from Ian’s remains will push northward into the Mid-Atlantic region late tomorrow and continue into the weekend and some of the rain will be heavy at times along with gusty winds.
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In a storm that will rival the great hurricane of 1921 for its impact on west-central Florida, Hurricane Ian has climbed to category 4 (“major”) status and will unfortunately likely have a devastating impact on the state from today into Thursday. Although there is some wind shear in the vicinity of the storm, Hurricane Ian is large, powerful, and a slow-mover which will exacerbate the effects of torrential rain, powerful winds and a dangerous storm surge on the western side. The hurricane will cross central Florida and then ride up just off the northeast Florida coastline and likely return as a tropical storm somewhere near the Georgia/South Carolina later Friday. The remnant heavy rain and strong winds of Ian will push up through the eastern US late this week and this weekend with impacts all the way to the Mid-Atlantic region.
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High pressure will remain in control of the weather for today, but a strong cold front will approach in the overnight hours and work its way through the region on Thursday. There can be a few showers and thunderstorms later tonight into Thursday and then the passage of this front will usher in the coolest air mass so far this season. Temperatures late tomorrow night could bottom out near 50 degrees and then are likely to hold in the 60’s on Friday. It remains cool on Saturday and the weekend will end quite comfortable on Sunday with a bit of a warm up.
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After pounding Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Monday, Hurricane Fiona has intensified into the season’s first “major” hurricane with category 3 classification and can attain category 4 status over the next few days as it gradually turns to the northeast. On this track, Hurricane Fiona will come close to Bermuda by early Friday and become increasingly influenced by an amplifying upper-level ridge over the northeastern US. This upper-level trough will result in the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and ultimately could cause Fiona to pull back towards the Canadian Maritime Provinces this weekend with the potential of a direct impact. Meanwhile, another tropical system is organizing east of the Windward Islands and it has a chance of intensifying over the warm Caribbean Sea during the next several days and ultimately, could become a threat to the Gulf of Mexico region.
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A weak cool front passed through the region last night and high pressure will take control of the weather for today and Wednesday. A strong cold front will pass through early Thursday – likely with showers and a thunderstorm – and its passage will usher in the coolest air mass of the season so far this season for the Mid-Atlantic region. It’ll turn breezy and cooler by Friday which is destined to be the coolest day in this late week cool air outbreak with highs confined to the 60’s and there will likely be a stiff breeze as well.
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Hurricane Fiona is crossing over the eastern side of Hispaniola this morning and is pounding away at the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico with heavy rainfall, flash flooding and powerful winds. After moving away from land, Fiona will gradually make a turn during the next few days from its current northwest movement to north and then to the northeast ahead of an amplifying upper-level trough of low pressure that will build over the northeastern part of the nation. Fiona is likely to become the season’s first “major” hurricane during the next couple of days while out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic Ocean. The upper-level trough that will intensify over the northeastern states will help to keep Fiona away from the US east coast and will result in an outbreak of cool air late this week in the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US - the coolest air mass so far this season.
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