Hurricane Laura could become a “major” hurricane before making landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday likely somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana border. Hurricane Laura has cleared the island of Cuba and is now pushing over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The combination of weak wind shear and very high sea surface temperatures will contribute to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hours. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall in the western Gulf coastal region, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states and result in heavy rainfall and potential severe weather and then the remnants may turn to the east, interact with a frontal system, and potentially produce heavy rainfall and severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region early in the upcoming weekend.
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Tropical Storm Laura is a growing threat for the coastline region of Texas and Louisiana with a possible landfall late Wednesday night. Tropical Storm Laura is very likely to intensify into hurricane status once out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and it could become a “major” hurricane (i.e., category 3 or higher) before landfall - perhaps near the TX/LA border. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco has weakened considerably as it drifts westward over central Gulf coastal region.
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Tropical Storm Laura is a growing threat for the coastline region of Texas and Louisiana with a possible landfall late Wednesday. Tropical Storm Laura is very likely to intensify into hurricane status once out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and it could become a “major” hurricane (i.e., category 3 or higher). Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco has weakened as it nears the central Gulf coastal region due to wind shear in its vicinity. The low-level circulation center of Tropical Storm Marco has been displaced from the main area of convection (thunderstorms) and it will tend to dissipate over the next few days.
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Tropical Storm Marco is undergoing weakening as it approaches the central Gulf coastal region due to wind shear in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. The wind shear is being generated in an area that is between an upper-level trough to the west and an upper-level ridge to the east. There is little chance that Marco intensifies from this point on and it should actually fall apart over the next few days. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Laura is moving along the southern part of Cuba and it will enter the Gulf of Mexico by early tomorrow and likely intensify into hurricane status as it rides over the very warm waters. Tropical Storm Laura is then likely to heads towards the border region of Texas and Louisiana with a possible landfall as a hurricane on Wednesday night or Thursday.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues and there is likely to a “double-strike” of tropical storms on the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Marco is now out over the open waters of the very warm Gulf of Mexico and is likely headed towards a landfall on Monday in the central Gulf region (Louisiana). Tropical Storm Marco is now flirting with hurricane status and its trek over the very warm water of the Gulf could give it the boost needed to attain category one hurricane status. Tropical Storm Laura is currently interacting with the island of Hispaniola and it too is likely to make a run towards the central Gulf region (Louisiana/Texas border region) by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Laura may also get a boost from the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico which could boost it to hurricane status before landfall later in the week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start and two systems are likely to have a high impact on the Gulf of Mexico by the early and middle parts of next week. One system is likely to cross over or right near the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico in the near-term and then push over the western part of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Texas/Louisiana border region. A second system is likely headed near or over the northern Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Haiti/Dominican Republic, and Cuba in the near-term and then perhaps through the Florida Straits before entering the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Both of these systems are likely to intensify into named tropical storms status – one would be “Laura” and the other “Marco” – and perhaps even to hurricane status before possible landfalls next week as high sea surface temperatures will aid in further intensification.
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The tropical scene in the Atlantic Basin is very active and there are two separate depressions which could impact the Gulf of Mexico region by the early part of next week. An initial tropical depression is likely to cross Yucatan, Mexico and then push into the western Gulf with perhaps an ultimate impact on Texas. A second tropical depression is likely to take a track towards the Florida Straits with a possible impact by early-to-mid next week anywhere from Cuba to southern Florida.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of August. There are now two tropical depressions in the Atlantic Basin which are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days with the Gulf of Mexico the likely high impact zone by the early or middle of next week. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A “teleconnection” index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea for increased tropical activity over the next couple of week. In addition, the latter part of August is a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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The wet weather pattern of recent days will continue right through the upcoming weekend in the Tennessee Valley as an upper-level trough becomes entrenched over the central Gulf of Mexico region. In addition to the upper air low pressure system, an abundance of moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere will contribute to instability over the next few days. Temperatures today and Friday will likely hold in the 80’s for highs with overnight lows generally in the mid or upper 60’s. Elsewhere, an active tropical scene in the Atlantic Basin will likely continue through the remainder of the month and there are four tropical waves being closely monitored at this time.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of the month of August. There are currently two tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin which are being closely monitored and both are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and it looks quite impressive on satellite imagery and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A “teleconnection” index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea for increased tropical activity as we progress through the rest of August. In addition, the latter part of August is from a “climatological” point-of-view, a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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