The quiet, dry and warm weather pattern of recent weeks in the Mid-Atlantic region is coming to an end and a soaking rain event is on the way with the possibility for some strong-to-severe thunderstorms as well. The biggest threat from the potential thunderstorms in the I-95 corridor appears to be damaging wind gusts as there will be a rapidly strengthening jet streak at lower levels of the atmosphere tonight and Tuesday and this could translate down to the surface. Following the rain event, cooler air will slide into the Mid-Atlantic region for a few days, but the core of this chilly air mass is headed towards the Southeast US where the difference from normal will be much more noticeable. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will approach the region from our northwest later this weekend and this could lead to another significant rain event on Sunday and which may then be followed by another chilly shot of air early next week.
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This week has been about as quiet as it gets this time of year in the eastern part of the nation with very strong and relatively stationary high pressure dominating the scene for several days. In fact, that same high pressure system will continue to control the weather for the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic region right through the upcoming weekend. Beyond that, however, a rapidly changing weather pattern will likely result in some wild weather for the eastern states over the next couple of weeks that could include soaking rain, possible severe thunderstorm activity, and occasional impressive cold air outbreaks.
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The coldest air so far this season pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and this morning brought many areas their first frost of the season. After another chilly night with frost possible in many areas, temperatures will modify as we progress through the week and into the weekend. There are, however, signs for another cold shot in the East and Midwest by the middle of next week and this next one could be even colder than the current outbreak. In addition to the upcoming chill, there are signs that the mid-week cold shot could be preceded by a significant rain event in the eastern US.
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Tropical Storm Nate is likely to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and head towards the Louisiana/Mississippi southern border region. It is likely to make landfall in that part of the northern Gulf coast on Saturday night as a category 1 or 2 status hurricane. After landfall, Nate is likely to turn to the northeast and take an inland track through the eastern states on Sunday night and Monday. This expected path is likely to result in significant rainfall for much of the interior eastern US including the Mid-Atlantic region where it has been very dry in recent weeks.
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Tropical Storm Nate is now skirting the coastline of Nicaragua and is likely to continue on a northwest track and into the central Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend. Nate could very well intensify into hurricane status by late Saturday over the warm waters of the central Gulf of Mexico and then continue northward right towards the Louisiana/Mississippi border region by early Sunday. After that, Nate is likely to take a turn to the northeast and move through the Tennessee Valley on Monday and into the interior part of the Mid-Atlantic region. This potential path would likely bring some significant rainfall to much of the eastern US early next week which is welcome news for the area considering the dry weather pattern of the past few weeks.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season has undergone a relatively quiet spell in recent days, but that is about to come to an end. An area of showers and thunderstorms has become better organized over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and it is now officially known as “Tropical Depression 16”. Environmental conditions are quite favorable for this to become a tropical storm within the next 24 hours or so and, if so, it would become named “Nate” by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. By early in the weekend, we could be dealing with a hurricane somewhere over the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico and it could approach the panhandle of Florida by late in the weekend. After that, there are signs that this tropical system will push northeastward and ride up through the eastern states early next week on an inland track.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season has undergone a relatively quiet spell in recent days, but there are signs that this break will end shortly. An area of showers and thunderstorms has now formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and environmental conditions are likely to become quite favorable over the next few days for this to become a tropical depression. In fact, by later in the weekend, we could be dealing with a tropical storm or hurricane somewhere over the central Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there are signs that point to tropical moisture from this system to ride up northeastward through the eastern states on an inland track which would actually be welcome news in the Mid-Atlantic region which has been very dry in recent weeks.
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Typically, “African-wave” tropical systems wane during the latter stages of the Atlantic Basin tropical season and there are often more in the way of “home-grown” systems that form in more nearby locations to the US such as the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea or western Atlantic region near the Southeast US coastline. In fact, there are strong signs that one tropical system may form near the eastern side of Florida over the next few days and then the medium-term (7-14 days out) is likely to feature a tropical system over the western Caribbean Sea/southern Gulf of Mexico which could eventually also have an impact on parts of the Southeast US.
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Hurricane Maria is now just to the east of the southeastern Bahamas and remains a “major” category 3 hurricane at 11 am with max sustained winds at 125 mph. Maria continues to move on a slow northwest track (8 mph) and will begin on a more northerly track this weekend. By the middle of next week, Maria will likely be situated to the east of the Carolinas; however, with very strong high pressure ridging firmly in place across southeastern Canada and the Northeast US, its movement beyond that point is still of concern for the east coast. A shift to the west in Maria's track is not out of the realm of possibility and that could present some problems to the US east coast from the Outer Banks to New Jersey.
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Hurricane Maria made landfall earlier today near Yabucoa Harbor in Puerto Rico as a category 4 storm and the eye has become filled in recent hours as it passed over the mountainous terrain on the island. Maria’s center will move off the northern coast of Puerto Rico this afternoon in a somewhat weakened state and soon its current northwestward direction should become more northerly. Ultimately, Maria is likely to interact with the remains of Jose and it is still unclear as to how this will play out in terms of its chances of ever reaching the US east coast.
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