While we have passed the climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season, the unfolding weather pattern will become favorable for more tropical activity in the eastern US during the next couple of weeks. Abnormally strong high pressure ridging will set up in coming days over the northeast US and southeastern Canada and this will allow for any potential tropical systems to “slide underneath” and head right towards the US. As a result, close attention should be paid to the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic over the next couple of weeks as the Atlantic Basin tropical season drags on.
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Hurricane Rosa is now rated as a major (category 4) storm in the eastern Pacific Ocean with maximum sustained winds at 145 mph and it will take a track in coming days right towards the southwestern US. While it’s winds will diminish significantly over the next few days as it very likely weakens to tropical storm status before reaching the Southwest US, its moisture field will remain largely intact and flooding rains could be the result in places like Arizona, southern California and Utah. Once Rosa arrives in the Southwest US, upper-level winds could very well carry its moisture field all the way across the US and into southeastern Canada by late next week.
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There has been plenty of unseasonably cold air across Canada in recent weeks and it looks like it will stay bottled up there for another several days. However, an overall pattern change may develop in coming days that involves a typhoon in the western Pacific and this could result in an impressive shot of cold air for the eastern US in about ten days to two weeks. Another tropical system that has formed in the eastern Pacific may have a significant impact on the Southwest US later next week.
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The remnants of Florence are centered over the Ohio Valley at mid-day and showers and thunderstorms are wrapping around the system and now impacting much of the Mid-Atlantic region. The threat for occasional rain and thunderstorms will continue in the I-95 corridor into the early part of tomorrow night when a frontal system will finally clear things out. Some of the rain will be heavy at times and some of the storms can be on the strong side. In fact, accelerating tropical systems of this nature sometimes generate tornadic-producing thunderstorms on its east side so that may also become a threat over the next 24-36 hours.
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Florence made landfall earlier today near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina as a category 1 hurricane and it has nearly grinded to a halt in recent hours with movement of only 3 mph to the west-southwest. This extremely slow movement of Florence will lead to an extended period of heavy rainfall and strong winds for coastal sections of the Carolinas and some spots will see more than two feet of rain by the time all is said and done. Florence will push inland on Saturday and cross over the state of South Carolina in a weakened state and then begin a looping process on Sunday. This looping process will begin with an acceleration to the northwest by early next week and then an even more rapid movement to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Florence will finally push off the Northeast US coastline by the middle of next week and the Atlantic Basin tropical scene may become relatively quiet for awhile. However, after this potential break in the action, the tropical scene is likely to become more active again during the latter part of September and during part of the month of October.
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Hurricane Florence continues to close in on the Carolina coastline and it will arrive in the NC/SC border region on Friday. Hurricane Florence has weakened during the past 24 hours and is now rated as a category 2 storm. The “slowing down” process of Florence has begun and the hurricane will grind nearly to a halt when it reaches the coastline and painfully crawl along to the southwest during the next couple of days.
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Hurricane Florence remains a category 4 (major) storm at mid-day and is currently moving northwest at 15 mph and is headed for the Carolina coastline. It should arrive near the North and South Carolina border region by early Friday where it will become influenced by blocking upper-level high pressure to the north. As a result, Florence will slow down dramatically and drift southwestward along the Carolina coastline. By the latter part of the weekend, Florence is likely to push inland over South Carolina or Georgia and then eventually loop back around to the east. We may have to deal with Florence until the middle of next week before it likely finally exits off the US east coast - perhaps off of New Jersey.
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Hurricane Florence has rapidly intensified today from category 2 status this morning to category 4 status this evening. As Florence moves over very warm waters over the next couple of days, it should remain as a “major” hurricane and a climb to category 5 is not out of the question. All signs continue to point to a WNW track for Florence over the next few days with a possible landfall late Thursday/early Friday near the NC/SC border region. Once Florence reaches the Carolinas, it’ll run into an “atmospheric road block” as very strong high pressure ridging is setting up to the north across the northwestern Atlantic and southeastern part of Canada. As a result of the slow down, Florence is likely to generate tremendous amounts of rainfall in the Carolinas and into at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic (e.g., Virginia) over an extended period of time.
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All eyes are focused on Hurricane Florence as we begin the new week and chances for a major impact on the US east coast continue to grow. Florence is now churning slowly towards the US east coast as a category 2 hurricane and may make a landfall late Thursday somewhere along the Carolina coastline – likely with “major” hurricane status. Very strong high pressure ridging is now building at upper levels of the atmosphere across southeastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic and this will be a key player in the push of Florence towards the east coast over the next few days. In addition, this very strong high pressure ridge will eventually act as an “atmospheric brick wall” for Florence once it reaches the Carolinas and the brakes will be put on any attempt at a northward advance by the storm. This eventual slow down in the northward advance of Florence will allow for an extended period of heavy rainfall and the result could be tremendous rainfall amounts in the Carolinas and perhaps into at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Florence was downgraded in the overnight hours to “tropical storm” status, but it is quite likely to return to “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher) in coming days. The evolving upper-level weather pattern will allow for Florence to head westward towards the US east coast over the next several days and it could have a significant impact during the latter part of the week. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Gordon is currently drifting slowly to the north over Arkansas and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall through early next week extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition, there are two other tropical systems in the eastern Atlantic that are very likely to intensify to hurricane level in coming days. The first of these trailing systems is likely to head on a “southern” track taking it towards the Caribbean Sea and there is a chance that the last system of the four will curve northward to the open Atlantic.
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