Low pressure will intensify near the Carolina coastline late today and then slowly push northward to a position over central New Jersey by mid-day Saturday and the result will be a soaking rain event in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The ingredients are in place for this significant rain event including an entrenched cold and dry air mass in the Northeast US, copious amounts of moisture to our southwest, and an intensifying upper-level trough in the eastern US. Strong winds will also become a major factor with this intensifying storm system; especially, along coastal sections where gusts past 60 mph are possible between midnight and noon on Saturday and gusts up to 50 mph are possible across interior locations. The air in place across the Northeast US will be cold enough during this upcoming event for some frozen precipitation in interior, higher elevation spots from West Virginia/western Virginia-to-northern Pennsylvania-to-northern New England.
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The ingredients are falling into place for a significant rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region that should get underway later tomorrow as intensifying low pressure heads up along the eastern seaboard. The combination of an entrenched cold and dry air mass, copious amounts of moisture to our southwest, and vigorous upper-level energy dropping southeastward towards the eastern US will result in a soaking rain event in the Mid-Atlantic that could yield 2+ inches in some spots by early next week. A second wave of energy in the upper atmosphere is likely to produce additional showers in the late Sunday night/early Monday time frame.
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The ingredients are falling into place for a significant rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region that should get underway later Friday as intensifying low pressure heads up along the eastern seaboard. The combination of an entrenched cold and dry air mass, copious amounts of moisture to our southwest, and vigorous upper-level energy dropping southeastward towards the eastern US will result in a soaking rain event in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor that could yield 2+ inches in some spots by early next week.
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The ingredients are going to fall into place for a strong storm in the Mid-Atlantic region that is likely to bring rain and wind to the I-95 corridor and points east to the coast from later Friday into Saturday. Enough cold air may wrap into the storm this weekend for some frozen precipitation to interior higher elevation locations of the Northeast US. The combination of copious amounts of low-level moisture, deep and broad upper-level energy, and an unfolding blocking pattern aloft is likely to result in strong low pressure near or along the east coast that will become a rather slow mover. Interestingly, some of the moisture that gets intertwined into this system will come from Hurricane Willa which has weakened very significantly in the past 24 hours (rise of 45 millibars in its central pressure) and is now a category 3 storm just off the west coast of Mexico. This tropical system will continue to weaken as it moves northeastward over the next couple of days; however, it will add some moisture and energy to low pressure that will develop over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week.
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The month of October has a way of ending on occasion with very powerful storms near the east coast of the US including Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the “perfect” storm on Halloween Day in 1991. While these two are extreme examples, there continue to be strong signals for a major storm near the east coast this weekend that could actually get a boost of energy and moisture from a category 5 hurricane in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Heavy rain and strong winds are the main threats in the immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but snow is on the table from this potential storm in the higher elevation regions from West Virginia to interior New England. This could turn out to be a rather long-lasting storm as well given the expected very large-scale upper-level trough that will set up during the weekend.
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In the long term, the sun is the main driver of all weather and climate and multi-decadal trends in solar activity can have major impacts on oceanic and atmospheric temperatures. In addition, empirical observations have shown that the sun can have important ramifications on weather and climate on shorter time scales including those associated with the average solar cycle of around 11-years. For example, there is evidence that low solar activity during solar minimum years tend to be well-correlated with more frequent “high-latitude blocking” events compared to normal and this type of atmospheric phenomenon can play an important role in the winter season.
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There continue to be signals for a strong storm to form near the east coast towards the latter part of the month and it will be something to monitor in coming days. Cold air outbreaks will continue to drop southeastward into the eastern US over the next several days and by the latter part of next week vigorous energy in the upper part of the atmosphere may result in a deep negatively-tilted trough aloft. The end result may be a strong storm right near the Mid-Atlantic coastline sometime next weekend.
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Numerous cold air outbreaks are likely to drop southeastward into the eastern US over the next couple of weeks and there are some interesting signals suggesting a possible strong storm could form near the east coast as October winds down. Long-range computer forecast maps strongly hint at “high-latitude blocking” to form late this month and teleconnection indices known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are predicted to tank sharply into negative territory which supports this idea. Of course, this is still in the “speculation” phase, but late October has a way of ending with some interesting storms along the east coast of the US including Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the “perfect” storm around Halloween Day in 1991. While these two are extreme examples, there is some reason to believe an east coast storm could form as the month winds down and there will be plenty of cold air around.
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It is not unusual this time of year to see a strong tropical system become the catalyst for a significant pattern change and indeed, the passage of Hurricane Michael late last week has seemingly opened the flood gates for cold air masses to drop southeastward into the eastern US from Canada. Canada suffered through one of their coldest Septembers on record, but the widespread cold was largely bottled up north of the border. The pattern shift that began after the passage of Hurricane Michael looks like it is going to result in numerous cold air outbreaks into the eastern US during the second half of October.
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Hurricane Michael is closing in on the Florida Panhandle as a strong category 4 storm with max sustained winds at 150 mph (at 11:50 am). This is an especially dangerous hurricane for the Florida Panhandle since it will arrive at or near its peak intensity. Satellite imagery shows a distinct eye and central pressure has continued to fall in recent hours and is now around 923 mb which would make this the 5th strongest landfalling hurricane in the US. Once Hurricane Michael moves inland, weakening will take place; however, hurricane-force winds should extend from the Florida Panhandle to southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia. In fact, it is likely to maintain hurricane status as it pushes into southern Georgia tonight - perhaps as a cat 2. From there Michael will head towards the Carolinas where heavy rains and strong winds will occur in an area with very well saturated grounds (Florence).
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