An active couple of days is in store for the Mid-Atlantic region with scattered showers and thunderstorms today and more widespread showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow. There is a wave of upper-level energy setting off some powerful and slow-moving thunderstorms at mid-day along the Delaware River region of the Mid-Atlantic and an even stronger system will likely generate numerous showers and thunderstorms later tomorrow into tomorrow night. Any of these thunderstorms can produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding given the well-saturated grounds. Looking ahead, a beautiful air mass for August will arrive on Friday and provide comfortable weather conditions for the weekend.
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The Mid-Atlantic region has experienced generally rain-free conditions over the past several days, but heavy downpours are on the table for this afternoon and evening. A cool front is edging this way and the result will be slow-moving showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Any slow-moving shower or storm can produce heavy rainfall amounts in a relatively short period of time and some of the storms can reach severe levels potentially producing damaging wind gusts. Given the still well-saturated grounds in the Mid-Atlantic region, any heavy rainfall can result in flash flooding conditions.
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The month of August begins this week and that is climatologically the period when the Atlantic Basin tropical season begins to ramp up with activity before typically reaching a peak in the middle of September. As if right on schedule, there are now multiple waves to monitor in the tropical Atlantic and some reasons to believe the atmosphere is becoming somewhat more favorable for the potential of tropical storm formation over the next week or so.
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The next three days will likely be the hottest stretch all summer long in the Mid-Atlantic region with urban areas along Route I-95 likely to make a run at the 100 degree mark (e.g., DCA, PHL, NYC) over the weekend. (Philly Airport hasn’t reached the 100 degree mark in the last 7 years). There is significant relief coming to the Midwest, NE US and Mid-Atlantic region next week and temperatures are quite likely going to be below-normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. The transition from the extreme heat and humidity expected this weekend to the cooler-than-normal conditions next week may very well come with strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Sunday night to early Tuesday time period with more torrential rainfall and potential damaging winds.
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There are two big weather stories unfolding for the Mid-Atlantic region for the next few days with the potential of severe thunderstorms and torrential rainfall later today and tonight as the remains of Barry pass through the region and then the hottest weather of the summer so far in the Friday through Sunday time frame. An already very warm and moist atmosphere will get even more unstable later today and tonight as a trough of low pressure associated with what was once tropical cyclone Barry passes through leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Once this large tropical moisture field pushes away from the area, an atmospheric blow torch will setup and cause temperatures to soar on Friday in the I-95 corridor and it’ll stay excessively hot and humid this weekend with a run to 100 degrees possible during this stretch. There can be scattered showers and storms late Sunday with a weak frontal system and then more showers and storms on Monday associated with an even stronger frontal system which will usher in cooler air by next Tuesday. In fact, the remainder of July looks much more pleasant across the eastern half of the nation with normal-to-below normal temperatures and we could very well look back on this Friday-to-Sunday heat wave as the worst of the summer in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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There are two big weather stories unfolding in the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the week and the upcoming weekend with the potential of some strong-to-severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over the next couple days as the remains of Barry pass through the region and then the hottest weather of the summer so far in the Friday into Monday time frame. Showers and thunderstorms are possible from tonight into Thursday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor - any one of which can produce heavy rainfall. Once this large moisture field associated with Barry’s remnants pushes away from the area, an atmospheric blow torch will set up and cause temperatures to soar on Friday in the I-95 corridor and triple digits will be possible over the upcoming weekend. A strong cool front is likely to bring a round of showers and storms to the Mid-Atlantic late on Monday and more reasonable air is likely for the middle and latter parts of next week.
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There are two big weather stories unfolding for the week and weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with the potential of some heavy rainfall at mid-week from the remains of Barry and then the hottest weather of the summer so far for the Friday, Saturday, Sunday time frame and perhaps even into the early part of next week. Showers and thunderstorms are likely from later Wednesday into Thursday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor mainly as a result of the remains of Barry and some of this rain can be heavy at times. Once this large moisture field pushes away, the excessive heat will become the main story with mid-to-upper 90’s possible for highs in DC, Philly and NYC this weekend and triple digits is on the table.
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A broad area of low pressure is drifting westward this morning over the Gulf of Mexico and there is not yet a well-defined center of circulation. As atmospheric conditions become more favorable and the system moves over warmer-than-normal water, intensification will become more likely and tropical storm status could be attained by later tonight or early tomorrow and perhaps (weak) hurricane status can be reached by later tomorrow night. A turn to the northwest by the early part of the weekend could bring this tropical system into central Louisiana and it’ll likely remain a relatively slow-mover raising the chances for substantial amounts of rainfall across southern Louisiana and parts of Mississippi as well over the next few days. Elsewhere, there is a threat this afternoon and tonight in the I-95 corridor for strong-to-severe thunderstorms – any one of these storms can bring heavy downpours to an already-soaked part of the country.
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Low pressure that pushed southward yesterday from Georgia to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is now showing clear signs of strengthening and it is very likely to reach named (Barry) tropical storm status over the next day or two. While only slow intensification is expected for the next day or two, there are reasons to believe that the combination of favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions will allow for more rapid strengthening beyond 48 hours and this could result in a category 1 or 2 hurricane this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico. A key player in the eventual path of soon-to-be named “Barry” will be a strong ridge of high pressure to the northwest that may steer this system towards a landfall Louisiana or Texas by the latter part of the weekend. In addition, with the building ridge to the northwest, there is the chance that this system becomes a slow mover and this will only enhance chances for some serious rainfall in the Gulf of Mexico region from eastern Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. Elsewhere, the centrally-based El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is now showing signs of weakening and this could result in a more active Atlantic Basin tropical season during the next few months.
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Overall activity in this still rather young Atlantic Basin tropical season has been pretty much non-existent so far, but it looks like the Gulf of Mexico will be the breeding grounds this week for tropical storm development. Low pressure will first drift southward to a location over the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and then drift westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico and likely intensify into tropical storm status – perhaps even reaching hurricane status. All eyes from the Florida Panhandle to Texas should closely monitor this unfolding situation as heavy rainfall is likely whether or not there is a named tropical system (would be called Barry).
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