The World Series between the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros began last night in Houston, Texas, but weather was not a factor. The Astros stadium known as Minute Maid Park has a retractable roof and it was closed last night for Game 1 which was won by the Nationals with a 5-4 score. The World Series will shift to Washington, D.C. on Friday night for Game 3 and then Games 4 and 5 (if necessary) are scheduled for Saturday night and Sunday night respectively.
From this vantage point, it appears the weather will be decent for Game 3 on Friday night with cool and dry conditions, but then rain could become a factor this weekend for Games 4 and/or 5. It does not appear that any of these three scheduled games in Washington, D.C. will be played under truly cold conditions as any significant cold air outbreak for the Mid-Atlantic region should hold off until later next week – perhaps in time for Halloween Day. Weather has indeed had a big impact on some World Series games in recent history in terms of both cold and precipitation.
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A tropical system continues to slowly intensify over the Gulf of Mexico and has now reached named (Nestor) tropical storm status. This system is moving to the northeast and will approach the northern Gulf coast later today and tonight and then move inland across the southeast US this weekend. By late Sunday, this tropical storm will likely move offshore somewhere near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it could generate some rainfall on its NW side in the Mid-Atlantic region late Saturday night/Sunday morning. Looking in the extended time period, some impressive cold air outbreaks are likely to impact the central and eastern US during the last week of October and the first week of November – perhaps leading to quite a chilly Halloween for lots of people across the eastern half of the nation.
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A vigorous upper-level low is dropping southeastward across the Great Lakes today and will interact with a powerful jet streak over the Tennessee Valley to help set off the formation of a strong coastal storm. This low will intensify this afternoon and tonight and will bring a soaking rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast US – the likes of which haven’t been seen in many weeks. Winds will become an increasing problem as well and could gust past 50 mph later tonight and on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US following the departure of the strong storm and possibly to hurricane force along coastal regions of southern New England. As some colder air wraps into the system on Thursday, there is a threat for a changeover to snow in some of the higher elevations of northern New York and New England.
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A vigorous upper-level low will drop southeastward across the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will help to set off the formation of a powerful coastal low along the east coast. This low will intensify on Wednesday and begin to impact the Mid-Atlantic region with significant rainfall – something that hasn’t been seen much in recent weeks. The storm will continue to intensify as it rides up along the Northeast US coastline late Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing with it heavy rainfall, strong winds and ultimately, even a changeover to snow in some of the higher elevations of New England. Following the storm, winds will be quite strong on Thursday and temperatures will struggle to escape the 50’s in much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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At this time yesterday, temperatures were in the mid 70’s in Denver, Colorado and the latest observation has quite a difference: 19 degrees, snow and wind gusts to 26 mph. In fact, a few inches of snow has already been reported in the Denver/Boulder Colorado region with significantly higher amounts across Montana which was very hard hit with snow a couple of weeks ago. As this developing storm continues to intensify and pushes off to the northeast over the next couple of days, the “bulls eye” region for snowfall may be eastern North Dakota where more than two feet is possible by early Saturday. Meanwhile, on the other side of the nation, a nor’easter is pounding away at southern New England with heavy rainfall and strong winds.
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A very active weather pattern across North America will bring a tremendous early season shot of cold air and accumulating snow to the region from the Rockies to the Northern Plains over the next few days and two systems off the east coast will merge into one powerful storm just off the Mid-Atlantic/NE US coastlines. As much as two feet of snow is possible in coming days to the Northern and significant rain and wind is possible from the Atlantic low(s) in southern New England.
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The month of October has seen above-normal snowfall across the Northern Hemisphere in recent years and there is likely to be some significant snow accumulations later this week in the region from the Colorado Rockies to the Northern Plains. This snow will be made possible by a tremendous shot of cold air for early October that will bring temperatures down to potential record low levels in the Rockies, central/northern Plains and Great Lakes during the next several days. Meanwhile, low pressure will intensify along a stalled out frontal boundary zone over the NW Atlantic over the next few days and it may impact the Mid-Atlantic/NE US from tomorrow into the end of the work week.
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Temperatures on Wednesday afternoon were in record territory for the date in much of the Mid-Atlantic region and, in some cases, October monthly high temperature records were threatened or broken. In the overnight hours, however, a dramatic change in air mass has taken place in areas north of the PA/MD border as a back-door cool front dropped north-to-south across the region. Temperatures this morning across the northeast US were as much as 25 degrees colder compared to yesterday morning at the same time and they are likely to go nowhere over the next few hours in places like Philly and NYC. The cool air sticks around into the weekend and then it’ll turn a bit warmer early next week and that warm up could be associated with a significant rain event in the I-95 corridor.
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It wasn’t that long ago that there was a fear in Montana’s Glacier National Park (GNP) that the Jackson Glacier was going to disappear in coming years, but that sentiment has changed dramatically recently largely due to extensive cold and snow in the latest winters. In fact, the Jackson Glacier—easily seen from the Going-To-The-Sun Highway—may have grown as much as 25% or more over the past decade. As recently as September 2018, there were posted signs within the park warning that GNP’s glaciers were expected to disappear completely by 2020, but these have been removed due to the recent change in sentiment on this warning. If this weekend’s snowstorm is any indication, the recent cold and snowy weather pattern across Montana in recent winters may certainly be an on-going phenomenon.
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In this the climatological peak time of the year for the Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are three systems now on the scene. The most important tropical system in terms of immediate impact is Tropical Storm Imelda which is right near the southeast coastline of Texas. It is likely to produce some tremendous amounts of rainfall over the next few days with 20+ inches on the table. A second system, Hurricane Humberto, continues to slowly pull away from the US east coast now with category 2 status and it could climb to “major” (category 3+) hurricane status within a day or two out over the Atlantic Ocean. Finally, a third system is pushing northwest in the central Atlantic and it will continue to slowly intensify in coming days likely requiring it to become a named storm.
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