Dozens and dozens of daily low temperature records were set this morning in the eastern third of the nation and, in some cases, the all-time low temperature for the month of November was recorded. Monthly low temperature records are quite impressive since we haven’t even reached mid-month and most of these type of records would typically take place in the last week or so of the given month. In some spots, today’s record low isn’t the only one to take place in this cold pattern. For example, Central Park’s record low for today followed a record low set before midnight for yesterday and they broke a record on last Friday – the 3rd record low set in just the past several days.
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The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass passed through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early this morning and temperatures have fallen into the 30’s from early day highs. Precipitation is being enhanced in the cold air behind the front as a strong jet streak aloft generates upward motion in the I-95 corridor. As a result, a changeover to snow is likely during the mid-day and early afternoon hours in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this changeover to snow is likely all the way to coastal New Jersey and Delmarva. Some spots could receive small snow accumulations and as temperatures drop to near freezing later in the day, watch for the possibility of “black ice” on some roadways. Precipitation winds down later today and the cold will become the main story with record low temperatures in numerous Mid-Atlantic/NE US locations by early tomorrow. Widespread records were set earlier today from Texas to the Great Lakes with some stations recording their lowest temperature ever for the month of November and we are not even at the halfway point.
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The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass will pass through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early tomorrow morning and it will likely result in a rain-changing-to-snow weather scenario. This Arctic blast is likely to result in numerous daily record lows across the central and eastern US over the next few days and, in some cases, perhaps the lowest temperatures ever recorded for this early in the season. In addition, significant accumulating snow is likely over the next 24-36 hours from Ohio/Michigan to western New York to northern New England. Rain should arrive in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC just before daybreak and then, as colder air filters into the region, a changeover to snow for a brief time is likely not only in the immediate I-95 corridor, but ultimately all the way to the coastline. The precipitation will wind down later tomorrow and then temperatures will drop to the upper teens in many spots by early Wednesday morning – perhaps breaking low temperature records in some locations. The much colder-than-normal conditions will stick around into Thursday and then some moderation will take place at the end of the week, but temperatures will remain below-normal.
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The first seven days of November have averaged more than 2.6ºC colder-than-normal across the nation and there is another very impressive cold air outbreak on the way for the eastern two-thirds. The first blast of much colder-than-normal air arrived in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the overnight hours and tonight will be the coldest so far this season. The next shot of Arctic air is already building up in Canada and it will reach the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest later in the weekend, cross the Great Lakes on Monday, and then into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Tuesday. This blast of Arctic air will not only spread out across a larger portion of the country compared to the initial shot, but it will be even colder. In fact, numerous daily low temperature records are likely to be set next week across the eastern two-thirds of the nation and there will likely be many sites recording their lowest temperatures ever for so early in the season.
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The first five days of November have been colder-than-normal across a large part of the nation and there won’t be any let up for the eastern two-thirds of the nation through at least the middle part of the month. The next blast of cold air will reach the eastern states in the Thursday night/Friday morning time frame and then another shot comes by the early-to-middle parts of next week. Rain will accompany the arrival of the first cold frontal system later tomorrow into tomorrow night and it can even end as some snowflakes in parts of the I-95 corridor. Accumulating snow is likely late tomorrow night in far interior regions of the NE US from southwestern NY to northern Maine with the influx of the cold air. The Arctic frontal system arriving early-to-middle next week could feature the development of low pressure along its boundary zone and that puts rain-changing-to-snow on the table for the I-95 corridor.
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November has started off much colder-than-normal across the nation and there won’t be any let up for the eastern 2/3rds of the nation into at least the middle part of the month. The cold start to the month follows a colder-than-normal October across the CONUS with more than twelve-hundred sites experiencing the lowest temperature ever in the month of October and, even-more impressive, many locations set their monthly record for the month as a whole. Multiple cold air outbreaks will ride along the polar jet stream during the next couple of weeks from the northern part of Canada to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US with the first one arriving in the Thursday night/Friday time frame and another next Monday. The late week cold blast will also feature rain-changing-to-snow in parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic and NE US and several inches can accumulate from western New York State to upstate Maine.
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November has started off colder for the nation as a whole than all but two years (1991, 2002) going back to the late 1970’s and there won’t be much let up for the eastern 2/3rds through at least the middle part of the month. The powerful frontal passage late last week in the eastern US was part of an overall pattern change and the warmth of October has transitioned to the cold of November. There will likely be multiple cold air outbreaks over the next couple of weeks that ride along in the polar jet stream from central Canada to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. After a bit of a warm up on Tuesday, it’ll turn cooler again at mid-week, but it is the late week when another impressive cold air blast will arrive. This next shot of cold air will drop southeastward from Canada and arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the Thursday night/Friday time period. Another cold air outbreak is destined to reach the central and eastern US early next week. Both of these cold air outbreaks may present some snow possibilities for the Great Lakes and interior NE US and even to parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Every once in awhile there is a frontal passage that not only brings about a change in air mass for the short-term, but it can be associated with a longer-term pattern change and that looks to be the case with the powerful cold front that blasted through the Mid-Atlantic region and northeast US last night. In this particular case, the frontal passage happened to occur right around the transition from October-to-November and the overall temperature pattern indeed looks to me like it’ll flip across the nation. In October, temperatures were generally above-normal in the eastern US and below-normal in the western can central states - and in some cases significantly so. All signs point to a flip of this pattern in November with colder-than-normal weather for the Mid-Atlantic/NE US/Midwest/Great Lakes and warmer-than-normal conditions in the western part of the country.
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All the ingredients are coming together for a wild weather event tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region and northeastern US. Vigorous energy in the upper part of the atmosphere associated with a powerful jet streak will combine with a low-level jet, very warm and humid air, and an intensifying surface low pressure system to generate a squall line along a slow-moving cold frontal boundary zone. This squall line should arrive in the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region of DC-to-Philly-to-NYC between 8 and 11 PM with torrential downpours, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, 50-60 mph wind gusts and perhaps isolated tornadoes.
Much colder air will arrive late tonight riding in on strong NW winds and a secondary push of colder air will arrive on Sunday leading to the first widespread freeze from late Sunday night into early Monday morning in the I-95 corridor. In fact, the overall weather pattern will tend to change dramatically with tonight’s powerful cold frontal passage with colder-than-normal conditions likely in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US for much of the month of November following a warmer-than-normal October.
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Every once in awhile there is a frontal passage that is a longer-term pattern changer and tomorrow night, we will experience such a front in the Mid-Atlantic region and NE US. October has been generally warmer-than-normal in the eastern US with Philly, for example, at +3.2 ºF for the month so far and Washington’s Reagan National Airport at +4.4 ºF. The strong cold front that will pass through the region tomorrow night with downpours, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, and howling winds gusting up to 50 mph will usher in much cooler air for Friday and Saturday and then a secondary front on Sunday will usher in the coldest air of the season so far. A widespread freeze is likely on Sunday night for the first time this season in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US and a colder-than-normal pattern is likely to continue for much of the month of November.
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