The low pressure system that resulted in a wintry mix of precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US over the past 24 hours or so will reach a position off the New England coastline by later today. This system will drag a cold front through the I-95 corridor by early tonight and winds will pick up as a moderately cold air mass moves into the area. Watch for icy spots later tonight as temperatures drop into the 20’s in most areas and there may still be some wet roadways. Another front will arrive in the I-95 corridor tomorrow afternoon and this front will represent the leading edge of an Arctic air mass. The arrival of the Arctic frontal system on Wednesday afternoon will be accompanied by strong wind gusts, scattered snow showers, and perhaps an isolated snow squall or two. It’ll stay windy tomorrow night and on Thursday and it’ll turn sharply colder with some of the lowest wind chill values and temperatures of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
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One storm system continues to impact the Mid-Atlantic/NE US today and another one will impact the same area from Monday into Tuesday. The next storm will intensify over the Lower Mississippi Valley early Monday and it will take a track to the Mid-Atlantic coastline by Tuesday afternoon. As the storm intensifies on Monday, it will generate a west-to-east swath of precipitation that will push into the Mid-Atlantic region during the morning or mid-day hours on Monday. The air is likely to be cold enough for a period of snow and/or ice at the onset and there are likely to be some accumulations before any changeover to rain; especially, from the northern and western suburbs of DC to areas near and north of the PA/MD border.
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There will be two storms to deal with in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US over the next few days with the first storm already impacting parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and another storm will impact the same area from Monday into Tuesday. The initial storm is going to be predominately a ‘plain’ rain event in the I-95 corridor and some of it will become heavy at times, but there are a few pockets of freezing rain at this hour in areas well to the north and west of Route I-95. Patchy fog may form as well in the overnight hours as the in flux of milder air moves over still cold grounds. The departure of this initial storm will result in an influx of another cold air mass at the end of the weekend and this could set the stage for some snow and/or ice on Monday at the onset of the next storm; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border.
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A strong cold front is pushing across the Upper Midwest and it is the leading edge of some very cold air for this time of year (Minneapolis, for example, to drop to five degrees below zero later tonight). This frontal system will slow down in its advance to the south and east on Tuesday as it’ll become more aligned with an upper-level wind flow blowing from the southwest to the northeast. At the same time, upper-level energy will be moving to the northeast from the south-central US and it’ll ride up along the slowly advancing frontal boundary zone. As a result, precipitation will become enhanced behind the surface cold frontal system and this will lead to a rain-changing-to-snow scenario along the I-95 corridor from late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Accumulations are likely during this rain-to-snow event early Wednesday on the order of a coating to three inches and this should take place in the big cities as well.
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A strong cold front will push across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday and usher into these regions a bitter cold air mass for this time of year. This front will slow down in its advance to the south and east on Tuesday as it’ll become more aligned with an upper-level wind flow blowing front the southwest-to-northeast. At the same time, upper-level energy will be pushing along the southwestern portion of the front system in the Deep South and this is likely produce a wave of low pressure along the frontal boundary zone which could result in a rain-changing-to-accumulating snow scenario for the I-95 corridor from late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
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A strong cold front will push across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest early next week and usher into these regions a bitterly cold air mass for this time of year. This frontal system will slow down in its advance to the south and east on Tuesday as it’ll become more aligned with an upper-level wind flow blowing from southwest-to-northeast. At the same time, upper-level energy will be moving over the southwestern portion of the frontal system in the south-central US on Tuesday. This setup could produce a wave of low pressure that forms along the frontal boundary zone and perhaps result in a rain-changing-to-snow scenario along the I-95 corridor late Tuesday night/early Wednesday.
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The snow pack across the nation is well above-normal for early December and it is actually at or near record high levels across all of North America. In addition, the first few days of December are colder-than-normal across the nation as a whole and this follows a colder-than-normal month of November for the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Looking ahead, multiple cold air outbreaks are destined to reach the central and eastern US from Canada right into at least the middle part of the month, but there will be some short-lived warmer-than-normal breaks as well.
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A long duration winter weather event is underway in the Mid-Atlantic region with a cold “plain” rain south of the PA/MD border, freezing rain and sleet across southeast and east-central PA, and snow is a factor in northeastern PA, interior upstate NJ and in the NYC metro region. As colder air wraps around a very slowly moving and intensifying low pressure system later tonight, accumulating snow will become an increasingly important factor for most areas and accumulations are likely; especially, north of the PA/MD border. In fact, there is the chance that some spots in the Mid-Atlantic region experience significant snowfall amounts on Monday and Monday night as intense mesoscale heavy snow bands are likely to form during this event.
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The major storm that slammed into the west coast a couple of days ago will result in a long duration winter weather event for the Mid-Atlantic region from later this weekend into early next week. This system now over the interior western US will head northeast towards the Northern Plains over the next day or so and will generate significant snow this weekend from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest. It is at this point in time that this system will run into an “atmospheric roadblock” in the form of upper-level high pressure ridging over southern Canada and switch from a northeasterly direction to east-southeast. The end result will be a cold air mass in place in the Mid-Atlantic region when precipitation arrives later Saturday night and low pressure is likely to spin just off the coastline as late as late in the day on Monday. This long lasting winter weather event could feature some ice and/or snow accumulations at the front end for much of the Mid-Atlantic region – perhaps plain rain for awhile in the middle – and then potentially significant accumulating snow on the back end.
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One strong storm is producing heavy snowfall across the Upper Midwest today and it’ll generate some very strong winds later today into Thursday in a large section of the country extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Another powerful storm continues to wreak havoc across much of the western third of the nation with heavy coastal rain and significant inland snows. This second system will push to the northeast over the next couple of days, but once it reaches the Dakotas, it’ll run into an “atmospheric roadblock” and be “forced” to slide southeast towards the Mid-Atlantic/NE US coastline by later this weekend into early next week. The result of this storm track will allow for cold air to be in place in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US when the storm arrives later this weekend and this raises the chance for snow and ice. The threat for snow and ice will continue into Monday for this part of the nation as the surface low spins around just off the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
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