Temperatures reached the 60’s this past weekend and this will be just a fond memory by the time we reach the upcoming weekend as a significant pattern change will begin that will return winter weather to the central and eastern US after an extended hiatus. In fact, an Arctic outbreak at the end of the work week will be backed up by strong, high pressure to the north and this will set the stage for a potential accumulating snow event for the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions on Saturday. This initial blast of Arctic air does not look like it will be the last. Indeed, it appears more and more likely that the latter part of January and perhaps much of the month of February will feature multiple cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US and, no doubt, this will lead to additional snow threats.
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Temperatures have averaged well above normal across the eastern two-thirds of the nation for the first ten days of January, but all signs point to a flip in the overall pattern in about a week or so. While we have had cold air outbreaks in the eastern US during the past couple of weeks, they have not been sustained and milder conditions have returned rather quickly. In fact, after a couple of cold days in the eastern US this week, the weekend will feature a noticeable jump in temperatures with the 60’s possible on both weekend days in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The warm up will back down some as we start the new work week, but temperatures should remain above-normal on average for much of next week. After that, however, colder air will likely press in the eastern US and it may have more staying power than recent outbreaks.
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A major storm is going to become a multi-hazard event for much of the eastern half of the nation during the next few days. The storm will begin to unfold on Friday in the south-central US and then trek northeast to a position near the Great Lakes by Saturday evening and then over New England on Sunday. Heavy rain and severe weather is likely to take place south and east of the storm track and significant snow and ice is likely to its north and west. The impact in the I-95 corridor will be to bring unusually warm conditions this weekend with highs generally in the 60’s and there will be some rainfall, stiff winds, and perhaps a heavy thunderstorm or two.
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A major storm system this weekend is going to become a multi-hazard event for much of the eastern half of the nation. The storm will begin to unfold later Friday in the south-central US and then trek northeast to a position near the eastern Great Lakes by Saturday evening and then it’ll end up in New England by early Sunday. Heavy rain and severe weather is likely to take place on Saturday south and east of the storm system and significant snow and ice is likely to its north and west. The I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will experience unusual warmth on Saturday afternoon (e.g., 65 degrees in DC) and then some rainfall and possible thunderstorms on Saturday night and Sunday.
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Low pressure is intensifying at this hour as it takes a path from the Tennessee Valley to the coastal waters of New Jersey and it will produce accumulating all along the I-95 corridor. Snow is closing in on the DC metro region and it should reach the Philly area during the mid-to-late afternoon hours and then into NYC by early tonight. While there can be rain mixed in at times in the initial stages of this event, the bulk of the precipitation in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor should be in the form of snow. General accumulations of 1-3 inches are expected from DC-to-Philly with isolated 4 inch amounts possible…slightly lesser snowfall totals are expected in NYC and Boston. Watch for slick road conditions this afternoon and tonight as the snow is likely to come down quite hard at times. In the wake of the storm, it’ll be cold and windy on Wednesday with gusts past 40 mph and snow showers and squalls are quite likely in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. The cold air mass that arrives in the wake of the storm will give way to a big warm up this weekend with the 60’s possible in the I-95 corridor.
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Low pressure will pull out of the Tennessee Valley early tomorrow and head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters and the result is likely to be some accumulating PM snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Temperatures will be borderline in the I-95 corridor region in terms of snow versus rain on Tuesday, but odds favor snow in the metro regions and nearby suburbs or a changeover from a mix of rain and snow to all snow soon after the precipitation begins. The low will push away from coastal waters of New Jersey tomorrow night and another cold air outbreak will make it into the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday. Much like most recent cold air outbreaks, however, this chilly air mass will not last too long and it should give way to much milder conditions for the upcoming weekend and it’ll turn wet.
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A “clipper” system will throw some snow shower activity into the northern Mid-Atlantic region late tonight and there is the chance for some additional snow later Tuesday in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. On Tuesday, low pressure will pull out of the Tennessee Valley and head towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Temperatures will be borderline in the I-95 corridor region in terms of snow versus rain on Tuesday, but odds favor mainly snow in the immediate I-95 corridor and to points north and west of there. The low will push off the Delmarva Peninsula coastline by later Tuesday night and another cold air outbreak will make it into the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-week. Much like most recent cold air outbreaks, however, this chilly air mass will give way to much milder conditions by the upcoming weekend.
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An active weather pattern will bring multiple waves of energy across the country and into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US during the next several days, but the lack of sustainable cold air is still problematic for snow lovers. A couple different waves of energy will consolidate in the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday and bring more rain followed by windy and colder conditions for Saturday night and Sunday. A “clipper” low pressure system will then drop southeastward on Sunday from central Canada to the Great Lakes and it could throw some snow showers into at least parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic/NE US from late Sunday night into early Monday. Finally, another system - perhaps the one with the most potential for accumulating snow in the I-95 corridor - is likely to form on Tuesday over the Ohio Valley as additional waves of upper-level energy come together. This system should be able to produce some rain and/or snow in the Mid-Atlantic region by Tuesday night. Another cold air outbreak will follow for the middle of next week, but, once again, it won’t last too long.
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When Alaska is colder-than-normal this time of year, chances are that the central and eastern US are warmer-than-normal mainly due to the typical wintertime distance between upper-level troughs and ridges across the Northern Hemisphere. Indeed, record lows temperatures of around 55 degrees below zero have struck Alaska at the same time places like Chicago, IL enjoyed some of the warmest weather ever around the Christmas holiday. Some of the cold air that has been bottled up over Alaska and Siberia in recent days may make a push into the central and eastern US in ten days or so.
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The weather looks quite favorable this weekend for traveling purposes from the Mid-Atlantic to the Upper Midwest, but a major storm will impact Florida and the rest of the Southeast US. A slow-moving and deep upper-level low pressure system will spin from the south-central US to the northern Gulf of Mexico by later this weekend and the result will be a strong surface storm that will likely bring a widespread 2-3 inch rainfall to Florida and much of the Southeast US from Louisiana to the Carolinas.
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