The Atlantic Basin remains full of activity today with three hurricanes, Sally, Paulette and Teddy, and each one of them is currently categorized as category 2 storms with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Hurricane Sally continues to move painfully slowly in the northern Gulf region after making landfall around Gulf Shores, Alabama and will likely end up producing more than two feet of rain in some spots before finally pushing away later tonight and Thursday. Hurricane Paulette continues to move rapidly away from the US in an east-to-northeast direction while Hurricane Teddy likely heads towards Bermuda and it could soon reach “major” hurricane status. In fact, Hurricane Teddy will have to be closely monitored in coming days as a strong blocking high pressure system develops over southeastern Canada/NW Atlantic which may force this system to the northwest after passing over Bermuda (i.e., perhaps in the direction of northern New England). In addition, a strong tropical wave now spinning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has a good chance of intensifying over the next day or so; especially, after Hurricane Sally pushes farther inland, and it is likely to ominously meander around the warm Gulf for awhile.
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The Atlantic Basin remains full of tropical activity today with two hurricanes, two tropical storms and three other waves extending far and wide from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Africa to the Northern Atlantic. Hurricane Sally remains over the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico at mid-day and has slowed down to a crawl which will contribute to excessive amounts of rainfall over the next couple of days in the region from western part of Florida’s Panhandle to southeastern Mississippi.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, temperatures this morning dropped to the lowest levels of the season so far with many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor bottoming out in the 40’s. And while there is plenty of sunshine today to go along with the cool conditions, the sun is dimmed in many areas by an upper-level of smoke from the western wildfires. An even cooler air mass will arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region by the weekend with Saturday’s highs likely confined to the 60’s in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor – well below-normal for this time of year.
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There are currently five systems in the Atlantic Basin that are characterized as tropical depression or greater and that high number hasn’t happened since September of 1971. Currently, there are three systems that are classified as tropical storms, Sally, Teddy and Vicky, and one hurricane, Paulette, which passed over the island of Bermuda earlier today. Tropical Storm Sally is a slow-moving system now over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it may end up producing up to two feet of rain during the next couple of days in portions of the northern Gulf coastal region. After landfall, the remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push to the north into southern Mississippi and then to the northeast through Alabama and Georgia – bringing some heavy rainfall along its path. The heaviest of the rain from Sally’s remains are likely to stay south of the Mid-Atlantic region as a strong cold front barrels from northwest-to-southeast towards the eastern seaboard. That cold front will usher in the coolest air mass of the season so far in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US during the upcoming weekend.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues as we reach the middle part of September with multiple systems on the scene extending from the western Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic Ocean. One of these systems is currently categorized as a hurricane, “Paulette”, and it is likely to impact Bermuda in the near-term. There are two tropical storms in the mix including “Rene” in the central part of the tropical Atlantic and “Sally” now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Sally is of great concern to the northern Gulf coast region as it could slow down near and after landfall - potentially resulting in substantial rainfall amounts of more than a foot by the middle of the week. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push inland at mid-week bringing significant rains to the south-central states and then into the Carolinas.
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If you try to pinpoint the climatological peak in the Atlantic Basin tropical season to one particular day in terms of the number of active storms, it actually comes down to today, September 10th. Well, here we are and right on queue, there are numerous waves to monitor in the Atlantic Basin from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to just off the west coast of Africa. A few of these tropical waves are relatively close to the US and will have an impact in the near-term while another few systems are potential concerns for the second half of September. Meanwhile, the Pacific Ocean remains unusually quiet in terms of tropical activity in what should also be an active time of year. In fact, the overall tropical activity in the world’s largest ocean has been way below-normal in 2020 and this has contributed to a below-normal tropical season so far for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.
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It is not too often that this early in September that you see significant accumulating snow on the map in the US at the same time there is an active scene in the tropical Atlantic, but that is exactly what we have going on right now. A dramatic temperature plunge in the Rocky Mountain States has brought a shift from summer-to-winter and significant snowfall is likely today in many higher elevation locations from Wyoming-to-New Mexico. As an example of the abrupt change, temperatures peaked on Monday at 92 degrees in Denver, Colorado and plunged to the mid 30’s by early this morning and half a foot of wet snow possible there by later today with a foot and a half possible in some of the mountain peaks just to their west. Meanwhile, there are three different tropical systems to monitor in the Atlantic Basin as the tropical season nears its climatological peak.
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A stretch of nice weather begins on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region and continues through Monday, but there is a threat of severe weather before we get there. A strong cold front is crossing the Great Lakes region today and headed towards the Mid-Atlantic and its approach will enhance the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the 2-9 PM time period. Any storm that forms later today or early tonight can become severe with potentially damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall…perhaps even a few isolated tornadoes. The good news is that all of this activity clears out by early tomorrow setting the stage for a stretch of nice weather from tomorrow through the Labor Day holiday.
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The next 24-36 hours will be an active period in the Mid-Atlantic region with the threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms both later today and again later tomorrow. A warm front lifted northward through the region earlier today and it has resulted in an increase in overall humidity levels as well as an increase temperatures now peaking in the low-to-middle 80’s. Another frontal boundary zone will approach the I-95 corridor region later in the day and this will set off some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity…likely in the 4 to 10 PM time period. An even stronger front will approach from the northwest late tomorrow and this too is likely to generate some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. The good news is that all of this activity clears out early Friday - setting the stage for a stretch of nice weather from Friday into early next week.
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The next 24-36 hours will be a very active period in the Mid-Atlantic region with the threat for severe thunderstorms from later this afternoon into tomorrow night and tropical downpours. There are even signs for a “bow echo” to form later today which could result in damaging wind gusts of > 60 mph (and possible power outages); especially, across eastern Pennsylvania and the southern and central parts of New Jersey. There is even the threat for isolated tornadoes later today in the I-95 corridor. Following all of this activity, a spectacular air mass for this time of year will ride in on stiff NW winds during the day Sunday and the very comfortable temperatures and humidity levels will stay around on Monday as well. Looking ahead, it’ll turn much more unsettled again around here on Tuesday and Wednesday with a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms, and peaking even further down the road, there could be more tropical trouble to deal with in the eastern/southern states over the next week or two.
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Hurricane Laura came ashore last night near the town of Cameron in southwestern Louisiana initially estimated as a category 4 storm. It has pushed northward today into upstate Louisiana and has weakened along the way to a category 1 hurricane; however, it is still producing heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts and will continue to do so into the state of Arkansas and parts of the Tennessee Valley. By the weekend, the remains of Hurricane Laura will interact with an incoming frontal system and upper-level trough to produce some heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region along with the potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorms. All of this activity will clear the east coast by Sunday and a spectacular air mass for late August will push into the Great Lakes, Northeast US and the Mid-Atlantic region.
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