A wintry mess of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and plain rain is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region as low pressure heads from the south-central states to the Ohio Valley. A dense dry and cold air mass is in place across the Mid-Atlantic region and it will be reluctant to give up its ground as moisture pushes in this direction from the west-to-southwest. As a result, frozen precipitation is a good bet during this event in the entire DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and the progression of the moisture field to the northeast will be quite slow. The arrival time in the DC metro region should be 4 or 5 pm and there is the threat for a burst of heavier snow by early tonight - an hour or two after the onset of the mixed precipitation. Arrival time in the Philly area is late this evening and precipitation will probably hold off until tomorrow morning for the NYC metro region.
Looking ahead, the active weather pattern will continue and another storm is going to intensify near the Carolina coastline Wednesday night/Thursday and its impact in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor is likely to be limited. Yet another storm could travel across the country this weekend and perhaps have an impact in the Mid-Atlantic region in the Sunday/Monday time frame.
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A wintry mess of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region early this week as low pressure heads from the central states to the Ohio Valley. A cold, dry air mass will still be in place on Monday morning when moisture begins to head in this direction from the west-to-southwest. This dense air mass will be reluctant to give up its ground; consequently, the northeastward progression of the precipitation along the I-95 corridor will be rather slow and some frozen precipitation is a good bet. In addition, the moisture field will tend to break apart some by the time it reaches areas to the north of the PA/MD border. Arrival time in the DC metro region is likely mid-to-late afternoon on Monday, late evening in Philly, but not until early Tuesday in NYC. A late week storm is likely to head towards the Carolina coastline with little impact likely in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.
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A frontal passage later today will usher in a very cold, dry air mass for the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with highs confined to the 30’s on both days all along the I-95 corridor. This cold, dry air mass will still be in place on Monday morning when moisture begins to head in this direction from a low pressure system over the Ohio Valley. A second low pressure area will form off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Tuesday and the combination of these two systems will result in a wintry mess in the Mid-Atlantic region from later Monday into Tuesday.
In areas to the north of the PA/MD border, snow and/or ice are likely to be the primary precipitation types and accumulations of up to a few inches are on the table. To the south of the PA/MD border, there is likely to be a mix of ice and rain with some snow possible at times and small accumulations are possible. Another storm could impact the Mid-Atlantic region later next week; however, its northward reach is still uncertain this far in advance and it could be suppressed to the south. Looking way ahead, there can be yet another storm threat a few days later as the active weather pattern continues into the early part of February.
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Philadelphia and New York City received traces of snow early yesterday as an upper-level wave of energy passed overhead, but there has not been anything significant in terms of snow in these two metro regions - nor in the Washington, D.C. area - since the middle of December. This “snow drought” in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor may come to a rather dramatic end over the next ten days or so. One winter storm can impact the Mid-Atlantic region from later Monday into Tuesday and then a second threat exists for later next week. There have been numerous threats of snow in recent weeks for the I-95 corridor and all have fizzled out, but there is perhaps better cause for optimism this time around for snow lovers in the I-95 corridor.
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This likely should fall in the “Department of Redundancy Department”, but there are snow threats coming to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the near future. A snowstorm in the middle of December that brought accumulating snow to the I-95 corridor has been followed by lots of threats, but no actual snowfall of any significance. While there is a snow shower threat late tonight and early tomorrow, a threat for later in the week that looked promising several days ago appears to have once again fizzled as we approach potential event time. Looking ahead to next week, there are likely not one, but two opportunities for accumulating snow (and ice) in the I-95 corridor and we’ll closely monitor these threats in coming days to see if they actually come to fruition this time around and make snow lovers happy.
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An energetic stretch of weather is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region with the arrival of a strong cold front on Friday night that will lead to periods of rain and a possible thunderstorm or two. On Saturday, deepening low pressure in the upper atmosphere will pass overhead leading to somewhat unsettled conditions with increasing winds and a possible snow shower or two. The air turns colder on Saturday and the wind will become noticeable out of the northwest and snow showers will be possible at any time. While there will be some sunshine on Sunday, winds will remain quite noticeable and it’ll remain on the chilly side in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A stratospheric warming event that began several weeks ago has set off a chain of events in the atmosphere to bring some severe cold and snow to portions of Europe and Asia in recent days. Meanwhile, much of the northern part of the US has experienced above-normal temperatures in the first ten days of January, but the overall pattern is undergoing some important changes that will likely result in much colder weather during the second half of the month. Specifically, the overall pattern aloft will evolve into one which features high-latitude blocking across Greenland/northeastern Canada and high pressure ridging across the west coasts of Canada and the US. This change will allow for the transport of very cold air masses from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we progress through the latter half of January.
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Changes to the overall upper-level pattern across North America during the next week or so will result in much colder air for the second half of the month of January in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. The upper part of the atmosphere will evolve into a pattern that features high-latitude blocking across Greenland/northeastern Canada, high pressure ridging across the west coasts of Canada and the US, and even “cross-polar” flow which could transport Siberian air to this side of the North Pole. In addition, numerous waves of energy aloft will ensure the recent active weather pattern continues with numerous storm threats in coming days for much of the nation. One storm system will bring accumulating snow on Friday to the southern Appalachians from northeastern Georgia to southwestern Virginia and another system next week could threaten the Mid-Atlantic/NE US with snow and/or rain.
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While there certainly has been some moderate cold in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the first part of the month, the overall weather pattern that is unfolding will likely result in much colder air relative-to-normal for the second half of the month of January. The upper part of the atmosphere will evolve into a pattern that features high-latitude blocking across Greenland/northeastern Canada and high pressure ridging across the west coasts of Canada and the US. This combination will allow for the transport of increasingly cold air masses into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US as we progress through January. In addition, numerous waves of energy aloft will ensure the active pattern continues as well with many storm threats to come in coming days for much of the nation.
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The overall weather pattern has been quite active in recent days in the eastern US with two different storm systems impacting the area in just the last three days. Numerous signs in the atmosphere point to a continuation of the stormy weather pattern in coming weeks across the eastern US and it is likely to become increasingly colder - raising the chances for accumulating snow. An on-going stratospheric warming event raises the prospects for high-latitude blocking in coming weeks which, in turn, increases the chance for increasingly colder outbreaks into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Teleconnection trends in such indices as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) support the notion for a sustained period of high-latitude blocking which, in turn, would be more favorable for coastal storm development. In the near-term, one storm will likely push to the Carolina coastline on Friday and it may then stay to the south and east of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as it heads out-to-sea - but it still needs to be closely monitored. Another winter storm is likely to threaten the southern and eastern US during the early or middle parts of next week as the active pattern continues.
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