Temperatures have surged today in the Mid-Atlantic region ahead of an approaching frontal system and humidity levels have climbed dramatically as well. The combination of very warm and humid air, a strong surface front, and vigorous energy aloft will lead to scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and early tonight. Any strong-to-severe storm that forms can potentially produce damaging wind gusts and large hail. After another warm day on Thursday (but less humid), temperatures will begin a downward trend on Friday as high pressure builds to our north into southeastern Canada. Low pressure will trek from the Midwest on Friday to the Mid-Atlantic coastal waters by later Saturday producing a beneficial soaking rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region as a very chilly Memorial Day weekend gets underway.
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Last weekend was very warm in the Mid-Atlantic region with highs in many places like Philly and Washington, D.C. above the 90 degree mark on both days…this weekend will be quite a different story. The Memorial Day weekend has been unofficially called the beginning of the summer season, but it will be anything but beach weather this time around in the Mid-Atlantic region. Anyone who has been a long-time resident of this area knows that an ocean flow this time of year can result in highs in the 50’s and 60’s rather than the more desired 70’s and 80’s. In addition to the cooler-than-normal conditions expected this weekend, it looks like it will get started with a chilly, but beneficial rainfall from Friday into Saturday.
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Anyone who has been a long-time resident of the Mid-Atlantic region knows that despite being dubbed the “first weekend of the summer”, Memorial Day weekend can actually turn out to be quite ugly with chilly and damp conditions. Indeed, the overall pattern appears to be setting up for just such weather conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region – at least for part of the upcoming long holiday weekend. All it takes this time of year to go from warm weather in the 70’s and 80’s to chilly weather in the 50’s and 60’s is for a strong high pressure system to build into the Northeast US or southeastern Canada. Indications are that this very well may happen this weekend likely resulting in anything but beach type weather for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A surge in temperatures is about to take place in the Mid-Atlantic region with temperatures climbing well into the 80’s at mid-week along the I-95 corridor. Temperatures have yet to reach the 90 degree mark officially this spring in the I-95 corridor, but they have a pretty decent shot this week in the Washington, D.C. metro region and an outside shot in Philly and New York City. One wrench in the unseasonably warm outlook is the possibility that a back door cool front could knock off several degrees later in the week; especially, in the New York City metro region and coastal New Jersey.
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The overall weather pattern that is unfolding is going to disappoint those in the eastern 2/3rds of the nation who are looking for sustained warmth as we progress through the month of May. In fact, signs point to a continuation of colder-than-normal outbreak into this large stretch of the nation well into the second half of May. In some cases, these cold air outbreaks will result in low temperatures near or below freezing which is a threat to growers from the Rockies-to-Northern Plains-to-Upper Midwest and in some cases this pattern will result in significant accumulating snow (e.g., higher elevations in the Rockies).
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An unsettled weather pattern continues today in the Mid-Atlantic region with numerous showers ahead of a cold frontal system that will usher in a much cooler air mass for later tonight and Thursday. After a dry day on Thursday, unsettled and cool conditions will prevail on Friday, Saturday and Sunday as an upper-level trough of low pressure moves overhead. In fact, much of the northern US will experience unsettled and cooler-than-normal conditions for the next ten days or so and this will result in more accumulating snow in such places as the Rocky Mountain States.
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The current warm spell in the Mid-Atlantic region that peaked on Wednesday afternoon will come to a halt with the passage of a strong cold frontal system in the early morning hours on Friday. A cooler air mass will arrive in the region on Friday and temperatures later tomorrow night will drop significantly into the lower 40’s for overnight lows – a far cry from the mid and upper 80’s experienced yesterday afternoon. While the cool down will be quite dramatic from the summer-like warmth on Wednesday, the bigger story will be the winds which could gust to the 50-60 mph range later tomorrow and tomorrow night – potentially resulting in downed limbs and scattered power outages.
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Temperatures dropped to the freezing mark in many spots along the I-95 corridor region of the Mid-Atlantic earlier this morning and there will be one more unusually cold night to deal with in the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions. The abnormal cold this morning was widespread across the nation with record or near record lows extending from the eastern seaboard to the Rocky Mountain States. There will be a noticeable modification in temperatures on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic and the weekend should turn out to be seasonably mild, but rain will dampen the scene from late Saturday into early Sunday. Looking ahead, a big time warm up is coming to the eastern US later next week and 80+ degrees will be on the table in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A much colder air mass is closing in on the eastern seaboard at this hour and its arrival this afternoon could spark a strong-to-severe thunderstorm in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with the highest chances along coastal sections of New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula. Strong NW winds will usher in the unseasonably cold air mass later today and tonight and temperatures are likely to bottom out near the freezing mark early Thursday – even in the immediate I-95 corridor. Numerous records or near records low temperatures were experienced earlier today across the central US and Midwest and this pattern will shift to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US early Thursday. Looking ahead, a big time warm up is likely in the eastern US later next week which could result in 80+ degrees for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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There is the risk of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity on Wednesday afternoon and early evening in the Mid-Atlantic region as a strong cold front blasts through the area. The primary severe weather threat will be damaging wind gusts and small hail is on the table as well. Following the frontal passage, unseasonably cold air will pour the Mid-Atlantic region riding in on strong NW winds and temperatures by early Thursday will be near the freezing mark in much of the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Boston.
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