October begins on Friday and there are several factors that I am closely monitoring which may give some clues as to what kind of winter weather we can expect in the Mid-Atlantic region. To begin, whenever dealing with longer-range forecasting such as with seasonal outlooks, I like to examine the current and projected sea surface temperatures around the world which can play an important role in an upcoming winter season across the US. The Pacific Ocean is most crucial as it is by far the largest body of water, but the water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean can be critical to a winter season; especially, in the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region. In addition, though the sun is clearly crucial in the long-term when it comes to all weather and climate, it can actually play an important role in the shorter-term – such as during an upcoming winter season - depending on its overall activity levels. Finally, the building snowpack across the northern hemisphere this time of year is always of interest as it can play a role in the formation of cold air masses that can impact the US in subsequent winter months.
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A cold front continues to push slowly to the south and east today generating scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region and it should clear the coast by midnight. As a result, clearing skies will set in late tonight and it’ll turn quite cool by tomorrow morning with a few suburban locations likely to drop into the 40’s. In fact, the next few nights could feature overnight lows in the 40’s in suburban locations to the north and west of the big cities along the I-95 corridor. In terms of rainfall, following today’s frontal precipitation, it looks to be dry for the next few days following today’s precipitation associated with the cold frontal system.
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A significant rain event is now getting underway in the Mid-Atlantic region and it will continue into early Friday as a cold front inches its way across the area. This cold front has support aloft from a strong disturbance that will center itself over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and there will be plenty of low-level moisture within a persistent and broad south-to-southeast flow of air that is forming on its front side. Showers have already pushed into interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic region and there can be an afternoon thunderstorm or two. The showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous on Thursday and Thursday night and some of the storms can reach severe levels with damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes on the table. Flash flooding is an increasing concern in the Mid-Atlantic region given the already well-saturated grounds from recent significant rain events.
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There is a good chance for significant rainfall later this week in the Mid-Atlantic region as a cold front inches its way across the area. This cold front will have support aloft from a strong disturbance that will center itself over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and there will be plenty of low-level moisture within the broad south-to-southeast flow of air that forms on its front side. Showers are likely to first develop on Wednesday across western sections of the Mid-Atlantic region and then gradually spread eastward on Wednesday night and Thursday. There is also likely to be a threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms on Thursday and Thursday night to go along with the heavy rain threat.
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There is a chance for some significant rainfall later this week in the Mid-Atlantic region as a cold front inches its way across the area in the late Wednesday to late Thursday time period. The slow moving surface cold frontal system will have support aloft with a strong disturbance and will have lots of moisture to work with as a broad southerly flow of air develops just ahead of it. The front will be followed by cooler-than-normal air for the eastern states for the late week and the upcoming weekend.
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The weather has certainly been active in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in recent weeks and there is yet another threat for severe thunderstorm activity later today and tonight. A strong cold front will drop southeastward later today from the Great Lakes and into the region and it will be supported by an impressive wave of energy in the upper atmosphere. As a result, there is the chance for downpours later today into tonight and any severe storm can produce hail and perhaps even isolated tornadoes. Give the already well-saturated grounds, any heavy rainfall can result in localized flash flooding conditions. The passage of the strong cold front will usher in a very comfortable air mass for the region to close out the work week and begin the upcoming weekend.
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A significant rain event continues at this time across much of the Mid-Atlantic region associated with the remains of Ida. Flooding has already occurred in some areas as a result of heavy rainfall, strong thunderstorms and already well-saturated grounds. The threat of tornadoes will increase markedly later in the day generally in areas along and to the southeast of the DC-to-Philly-to-Atlantic City corridor. Ida is still classified as a tropical depression and it will likely strengthen some later today as it encounters an upper-level jet streak that is located over the northeastern states.
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Ida has been downgraded to a tropical depression, but its impact is far from over. A heavy rain and flooding event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday and Wednesday night and there is a severe weather threat as well to include the possibility of tornadoes. The axis of heaviest rainfall may set up just to the north and west of the I-95 corridor and the greatest chance of severe weather may be just to the south and east of there. The remnants of Ida will get “re-invigorated” later tomorrow as it encounters a stalled-out frontal boundary zone and interacts with a strong upper-level jet streak.
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Hurricane Ida came ashore on Sunday in southern Louisiana as a strong category 4 storm following rapid intensification in the prior 24 hour period. Substantial rain fell yesterday and last night in the Gulf coastal region and damaging wind gusts knocked out power for over a million people as of earlier today including all of New Orleans. Ida has been downgraded to a tropical storm, but its impact is far from over.
A major rain event associated with the remnants of Ida is coming first to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and then to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later Wednesday into early Thursday. In fact, there will be a tendency for the tropical system to be “re-invigorated” in the Mid-Atlantic region as it interacts with an upper-level jet and a stalled-out frontal boundary zone. A swath of significant rainfall amounts of up to several inches will take place during the next 72 hours all along the post-landfall track of Ida extending from the southern states to the Northeast US and flooding will be a big concern all along the path. In addition to the heavy rain threat, severe weather will be on the table including the possibility of tornadic activity on the eastern side of the storm track.
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Hurricane Ida is making a run at Category 5 status in the remaining few hours before landfall along the southeastern Louisiana coastline. The latest observations of Ida include a well-defined eye, max sustained winds at 150 mph after rapid intensification of this system in the past 24 hours, and a northwest movement towards the Louisiana coastline. After landfall later today, Hurricane Ida will remain quite strong as it moves inland and it will gradually turn to the north in the nighttime hours and then take a turn to the northeast by mid-week. The post-landfall track will bring significant rainfall to the Tennessee Valley and then to the Mid-Atlantic region/Northeast US in the Wednesday/Thursday time period.
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