Widespread bitter cold air looks like it will overspread the nation next week and there can be multiple storm threats as well. Temperatures are likely to fall to well below-normal levels across much of the nation which is quite impressive considering the 3rd week of January is - from a climatological point-of-view - the coldest week of the year in many areas. An Arctic front is going to head into the eastern states later in the weekend and it will be at the leading edge of this incoming Arctic air mass...some of which may have its origins on the Siberian side of the North Pole. A wave of low pressure may form along the Arctic frontal boundary zone early next week potentially producing some snow in the Mid-Atlantic region for the period from late Sunday into Monday (Inauguration Day). Another storm threat could come at mid-week with its origins way down south and perhaps there will even be a third one during the late week time period.
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This will be a relatively quiet week across the nation despite another Arctic blast that arrives tonight in the eastern states, but next week looks like a different story. Widespread bitter cold air looks like it will overspread the nation next week and there can be multiple storm threats as well. Temperatures are likely to fall to far below-normal levels across much of the nation in what is from a climatological point-of-view, already the coldest week of the year in many areas.
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This cold and active weather pattern will result in another storm system in the short-term and this one will have a major impact on the southern states from New Mexico to the Carolinas with significant snow and disruptive ice. Low pressure will begin to organize over the Texas Gulf coast later today which is much farther to the south compared to the storm system earlier this week that originated over the central Plains. Cold air has penetrated all the way down to the Gulf coast setting the stage for this potentially crippling winter weather event in many southern locations.
This low pressure will push slowly to the east-northeast on Friday from the Deep South to the coastal waters of North Carolina by early Saturday and then continue on a track to the east-northeast of there into the open waters of the western Atlantic. While support in the upper atmosphere will be somewhat limited for the surface low pressure system, accumulating snow is likely to overspread the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor on Friday night and continue into Saturday morning with a coating to as much as 2-3 inches possible in some areas.
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This cold and active weather pattern will produce another storm system in the short-term and this one will have a major impact on the southern states from Texas to the Carolinas with significant snow and disruptive ice. Low pressure will organize over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later today which is much farther to the south compared to the most recent storm system that originated over the central Plains. Cold air has penetrated all the way into the Deep South during the past couple of days setting the stage for this upcoming winter event.
This storm system will push to the northeast on Friday from the Deep South to the coastal waters of the southern Mid-Atlantic by mid-day on Saturday. The surface low will have little support in the upper atmosphere as a “positively-tilted” trough axis will be limited in its generation of upward motion. While snow is likely in the Mid-Atlantic region from late Friday night into early Saturday, it is likely to be an overall light event with accumulations probably limited to the range of a coating to a couple of inches.
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This cold and active weather pattern threatens to produce another storm system later this week that can have an impact from the Deep South to the eastern seaboard. Low pressure will organize over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later this week...much farther to the south compared to the most recent storm system which originated over the central Plains. As such, there can be an impact in the Deep South and including the potential of accumulating snow from Dallas-to-Little Rock-to-Memphis and a swath of disruptive ice from Texas to the Carolinas.
After that, the low pressure system likely heads towards the eastern seaboard and the exact track will be critical as well as the timing of its intensification along the coast in determining how much impact there can be in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. A rapid intensification of the surface low along the Mid-Atlantic coastline could mean significant accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late Friday night into Saturday. However, if the system doesn’t intensify significantly until it passes to the north and east of the Mid-Atlantic region - the most likely scenario - then any snow would likely be on the light side.
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Low pressure that has produced accumulating snow today in much of the Mid-Atlantic region will shift to the western Atlantic Ocean during the next hour or so; however, it is not necessarily through with our area just yet. Snow is developing in the northwest sector of this eastward-moving storm system and this “backend” snow will impact the region from DC-to-the-Delmarva-to-southern NJ late today and early tonight and likely up across southern PA as well. In fact, there can be additional snow accumulations in some areas of up to a couple of inches before the precipitation shield finally fully departs the Mid-Atlantic region. On the backside of the storm late tonight and Tuesday, stiff NW winds will develop and can gust past 40 mph or so making it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures.
Looking ahead, this cold and active weather pattern threatens to produce another storm system late this week and weekend. This time, the location of the storm development will be way down south likely over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by week’s end. As such, there can be an impact in the Deep South and this can even include significant accumulating snow and ice across places like Texas and Arkansas. After that, the low pressure system likely heads towards the eastern seaboard and the timing of its intensification along the coast will be critical in determining how much impact there can be in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. A quick intensification along the Mid-Atlantic coastline could mean significant accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor or the system may “wait” until it pushes farther to the north and east to intensify which would likely limit any big impact to eastern New England.
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Low pressure will intensify today as it treks eastward through the Tennessee Valley and reaches the coastal waters of the southern Mid-Atlantic by Monday evening. This system will continue to produce significant snowfall along the way with a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather later today and early tonight in the storm’s warm sector centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley region.
Snow should arrive in the DC metro region around midnight and into the Philly metro just before daybreak. The heaviest snow in both places will likely be on the front end meaning late tonight and during Monday morning. In fact, there can be a lull in the precipitation on Monday afternoon and then some areas will receive “backend” snow on Monday evening; especially, in the region from DC to the Delmarva to southern NJ. The advance of the snow shield to the north will be inhibited by very dry air stationed over the Northeast US. As such, the storm’s effects will be more limited in places like Philadelphia compared to Washington, D.C. and virtually nonexistent up across New York City. Looking ahead, all indications point to plenty of cold weather left in January – potentially some extreme cold – and multiple storm threats including the possibility of one by the weekend.
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Low pressure will intensify over the central Plains on Sunday and it will become a major winter storm with widespread impact as it treks eastward reaching the coastal waters of the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday night. This system will produce significant snowfall along the way with more than a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather on Sunday in the storm’s warm sector over the Lower Mississippi Valley region. The storm arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night and precipitation can last all the way into Monday night in some sections thanks in part to the likely development of “cold conveyor belt” snow on the back end.
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A colder and active weather pattern is indeed unfolding for the central and eastern US and it is likely to bring two threats of snow to the Mid-Atlantic region during the next several days. First, an upper-level wave will rotate around the base of a large-scale trough of low pressure later tomorrow and it can produce snow showers in the area and maybe even a period of steadier snow; primarily, in the region from DC/northern Delmarva-to-southeastern PA/southern NJ…small accumulations are on the table. A surge of Arctic air will follow the system later tomorrow night setting us up for a cold weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. A more important threat of snow comes for late Sunday night and Monday as low pressure moves eastward from the Midwest with significant accumulations on the table in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region including the DC-to-Philly corridor.
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A much colder-than-normal weather pattern is about to commence for the central and eastern US and it looks like it’ll be one with some staying power. In fact, this upcoming cold stretch for much of the nation may feature some extreme cold and very cold conditions may penetrate all the way into the southern states from Texas-to-Florida. In addition, there are likely to be multiple snow threats in this developing weather pattern that can impact much of the central and eastern US to go along with the expected much colder-than-normal temperatures. Next week looks particularly interesting in a period that may feature some extremely cold air and multiple threats of snow including one in the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday time frame for the Midwest and at least portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous teleconnection indices support the notion of a much colder-than-normal weather pattern, and an unfolding stratospheric warming event enhances the idea that the much colder-than-normal temperature pattern can be sustained well into the month of January.
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