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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

**Battle setting up for next week with cold, dense air up north and increasingly warm air down south...eventually, the cold air wins out and there is plenty of winter left in the tank**

Paul Dorian

February can feature quite active weather across the nation with increasingly warm and humid air down across the southern states and some very cold Arctic air remaining up to the north. In fact, this kind of clash in the atmosphere appears to be setting up for next week which may lead to a storm system that features a wide range of precipitation types at mid-week from rain/thunderstorms in its warm sector to snow and ice in the cold sector. Eventually, it appears the cold air will “win” this battle and overspread the eastern half of the nation in about ten days or so. By the way, Sunday is Groundhog Day and - if I were Phil - I might be apt to see my shadow as it looks like there is plenty of cold air left in the tank for 6 more weeks of winter. Meanwhile, in the short-term, the month of January will end on a wet note in the Mid-Atlantic region with primarily a rain event from late tonight through Friday; however, accumulating snow is likely from interior New York State to New England where at least a few inches are on the table.

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11:45 AM (Tuesday) | **Wind gusts of 50 mph possible late tonight and Wednesday in the Mid-Atlantic region associated with the next strong cold frontal system**

Paul Dorian

Winds will be rather strong for much of today in the Mid-Atlantic region with gusts up to 35 mph or so; however, a more intense and longer-lasting wind event is in store for late tonight and Wednesday associated with the next strong cold frontal system. That next cold front will be trailing a “clipper” low pressure system that passes by to the north on Wednesday, and it can help to generate 50 mph wind gusts from late tonight into late Wednesday. In terms of precipitation, there can be some snow shower/snow squall activity on Wednesday afternoon as this next cold front arrives and, as with today’s frontal system, most of the activity will be limited to the northern Mid-Atlantic.

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11:30 AM | ***Nationwide deep freeze continues...snow, extreme cold hits southern states...February 1895 cold air outbreak and major winter storm revisited***

Paul Dorian

Bitter cold Arctic air persists across much of the nation with numerous daily low temperature records set across the southern and eastern states. In fact, a few all-time low temperature records were set this morning across southern Louisiana where clear skies, light winds, and a fresh, deep snowpack allowed temperatures to plunge to single digit levels across the region. A rare major winter storm has brought significant accumulating snow across the southern US from Texas-to-Florida-to-the Carolinas and, in some cases, this matched or surpassed the great winter storm of February 1895. The precipitation field associated with this southern storm will push off the southeast coast today, but the bitter cold will persist for a bit longer.

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10:00 AM | ***A rare weather event across the southern US with accumulating snow and ice from Texas-to-Florida-to-the Carolinas...even “Blizzard Warnings” have been issued along the Gulf coast***

Paul Dorian

A rare weather event has begun across the Gulf coast that will result in accumulating snow and ice in unusual places such as Houston (TX), New Orleans (LA), Tallahassee (FL), and Myrtle Beach (SC). NOAA has issued “Winter Storm Warnings” all the way from Texas to the Carolinas and - in an unprecedented fashion - even “Blizzard Warnings” have been issued from far eastern Texas to southern Louisiana. In this entire stretch of the southern US, there can be at least a few inches of snow by early Wednesday and an ice glaze may be included in the mix as well in many areas. By this evening, the accumulating snow can make it’s way as far north and east as southeastern Virginia and there can even be a touch of snow along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Arctic air that has enveloped the nation from coast-to-coast is the main contributor to this very wintry and rare weather event for the southern US.

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4:30 PM | ***Southern storm to bring accumulating snow and ice to unusual places between tonight and early Wednesday***

Paul Dorian

A rare weather event is about to commence across the southern states that will result in accumulating snow and ice to unusual places such as Houston (TX), New Orleans (LA), Tallahassee (FL), and Myrtle Beach (SC). The first three of these cities listed are under “Winter Storm Warnings” and Myrtle Beach is currently under a “Winter Storm Watch”…a very rare event indeed. In this entire stretch, there can be a few inches of snow between tonight and early Wednesday and an ice glaze may be included in the mix as well. Arctic air that has settled all the way down to the Gulf coast is the main contributor to this very wintry and rare weather event for the southern US.

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7:00 AM (Sunday) | ****Accumulating snow in much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor at front end of Arctic invasion…several inches in some areas…brutal cold to follow****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure over the southeastern US early this morning will intensify as it pushes northeastward to a position off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early this evening and then to near the New England coast by later tonight. Snow or rain changing to snow will break out today across the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and several inches is possible in some areas by the time the system winds down later this evening. Bitter cold air will follow the snow for much of the week ahead with single digit overnight lows on the table and some spots may even touch the zero-degree mark. A mid-week winter storm will have a southern US focus likely producing accumulating snow and/or ice from Texas-to-northern Florida-to-the Carolina coastline…likely staying to the south and east of the Mid-Atlantic region. A third storm system may ride up the east coast by the end of the week with some snow possible in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Thursday/early Friday time period.

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Sat. PM - ****Accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor on Sunday at the front end of an Arctic invasion…several inches on the table…brutal cold to follow with near zero possible****

Paul Dorian

The next several days will feature the worst that winter has to offer across the nation with widespread brutal cold and multiple snow and ice threats. An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by Saturday as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies. In fact, the first couple of days of next week could be among the coldest seen across the nation in a long time as there will be bitter cold conditions extending virtually from coast-to-coast.

This cold weather pattern will come with as many as three threats of snow and ice during the next week to ten days. On Sunday, low pressure will form along the incoming Arctic frontal boundary zone and likely produce several inches of snow across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US - and this includes in the big cities along the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston. Another storm is destined to form over the Gulf region by mid-week and its focus could be on the southern states with significant snow and ice a possibility from Texas to the Carolinas…the snow shield can potentially work its way into the Mid-Atlantic region. Yet another system can again develop way down in the southern states by the end of next week or during the subsequent weekend.

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*****Accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday at front end of an Arctic invasion…several inches on the table I-95 corridor…brutal cold to follow with zero degrees a possibility*****

Paul Dorian

The next several days will feature the worst that winter has to offer across the nation with widespread brutal cold and multiple snow and ice threats. An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by Saturday as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies. In fact, the first couple of days of next week could be among the coldest seen across the nation in a long, long time as there will be bitter cold conditions extending virtually from coast-to-coast.

This cold weather pattern will come with as many as three threats of snow and ice during the next week to ten days. On Sunday, low pressure will form along the incoming Arctic frontal boundary zone and likely produce several inches of snow across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US - and this includes in the big cities along the I-95 corridor. Another storm is destined to form over the Gulf region by mid-week and its focus could be on the southern states with significant snow and ice a possibility down there. Yet another system can again develop way down in the southern states by the end of the next week or during the subsequent weekend.

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1:15 PM | ****The worst that winter has to offer...widespread brutal cold with a Siberian connection...multiple snow and ice threats****

Paul Dorian

The next several days will feature the worst that winter has to offer with widespread brutal cold and multiple snow and ice threats. An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by Saturday as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies. In fact, the first couple of days of next week could be among the coldest seen across the nation in a long, long time as there will be bitter cold conditions extending virtually from coast-to-coast.

This Arctic invasion will come with multiple snow and ice threats including one later Sunday into Sunday night in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with several inches on the table, and another one at mid-week which could have a focus on the southern US. And, in the very short-term, snow is already falling today across the Great Lakes region with accumulations expected there on the order of a few inches, and occasional snow is likely to make its way into the DC-to-Philly-NYC corridor for the afternoon and early evening hours with accumulations possible of a coating to an inch or two.

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****An Arctic invasion gets underway early this weekend...Arctic front reaches eastern US on Sunday with accumulating snow a threat...bitter cold for Inauguration Day...additional storm threats****

Paul Dorian

An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by the early part of the weekend as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies.  Temperatures are going to fall to well below-normal levels across much of the nation for the bulk of next week which is quite impressive indeed considering this is right around the time of year with the lowest “normal” temperatures.

The Arctic front at the leading edge of the cold air outbreak will reach the eastern states on Sunday and a wave of low pressure is likely to form right along its boundary zone. This Arctic wave could produce some accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region from later Sunday into Sunday night. Another storm system could develop way down in the Gulf region by the middle of next week potentially bringing snow and ice to parts of the southern and eastern US. Looking ahead, there is even the chance for a third system to form across the southern states by the end of next week.

One final note, even before we get to the interesting weather of this weekend and next week, there can be some snow in the near-term across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US.

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