The risk is high today for a severe weather outbreak across the Tennessee Valley, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-South and this threat includes the possibility of multiple strong (EF-3+) tornadoes. Numerous ingredients are coming together to result in a widespread severe weather outbreak later today and tonight including strong jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, a clash of air masses with cold, dry air to the north and west and warm, humid air to the east and south, and a strong surface low pressure system with its attendant cold front. In addition to the severe weather, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way for much of this same part of the nation from later today through the first half of the weekend with widespread flooding a serious concern.
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It starts off quite chilly this morning and remains on the cool side this afternoon despite some fading sunshine as a warm front approaches the area. That warm front can produce isolated showers around here later tonight and then temperatures should surge on Thursday following its passage with tomorrow’s highs well up in the 70’s. This front (and additional fronts) will keep it somewhat unsettled around here for the late week and weekend with a daily shot at some shower activity, and maybe a couple of thunderstorms mixed in. Looking ahead, a colder-than-normal air mass arrives in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Monday and it looks like the first half of next week will feature below-normal temperatures for this time of year.
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An on-going active weather pattern will result in strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight across the middle of the country and there can be isolated tornadoes as well. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, the severe weather threat will become enhanced across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley and, this time, multiple strong tornadoes will be on the table. In this same part of the nation, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way from later tomorrow through the upcoming weekend with widespread serious flooding a real concern.
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A strong cold front passed through the region in the overnight hours and cooler air will follow for today along with strong NW winds that can gust up to 30 mph or so. After a cold night with lows way down in the lower 30’s, it’ll remain on the cool side for tomorrow along with partly sunny skies. A warm front will arrive on Wednesday night with scattered showers and temperatures should surge on Thursday following its passage with Thursday afternoon highs well up in the 70’s. This front (and additional fronts) will keep it unsettled around here for the late week and weekend with a daily shot at some shower activity. Looking ahead, a colder-than-normal air mass arrives in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US early next week and it looks like much of next week will feature below-normal temperatures.
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Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are a threat later today and tonight across much of the eastern US including in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as a strong cold front pushes eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard. This same frontal system resulted in numerous damaging wind gusts on Sunday across the Midwest/Mississippi Valley with a few tornadoes reported there as well and that same part of the nation will likely have a repeat performance of severe weather on Wednesday. In fact, numerous severe weather outbreaks are on the table for the month of April largely as the result of a recent stratospheric warming event which, in turn, enhances the likelihood for additional cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern states setting up “battle zone” regions. Finally, we’ll revisit the passage of a “back door” cold front this weekend that impacted the northeastern states and, in some locations, there were record-breaking temperature swings.
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A strong cold front will approach the region later today and then push through late tonight bringing with it rain and potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The rain will be scattered though mid-afternoon and then becomes more widespread late today and tonight and it can fall heavily at times bringing the risk of flash flooding to some parts of the area. Any thunderstorm late today/tonight can result in damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Following the cold frontal passage, it turns much cooler on Tuesday and breezy as well with temperatures holding in the middle 50’s for afternoon highs…below-normal for the first day of April. High pressure stays in control at mid-week, and then another strong frontal system approaches on Thursday with a surge of warmth on its front side pumping temperatures well up into the 70’s along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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It turns slightly milder today with increasing clouds as a warm front approaches the area from our southwest and there can be a late day shower or two. Showers are likely tonight as the warm front pushes through the region and temperatures will surge on Saturday to near 80 degrees for afternoon highs. There should be some sunshine to go along with the warmth on Saturday and a stiff breeze as well from a west-to-southwest direction. This surge in temperatures will become somewhat muted on Sunday as clouds will dominate the skies and help to knock temperatures down some from tomorrow’s high levels and there will be an increasing chance of showers later in the weekend. Looking ahead, a strong storm will pass by to the northwest of the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region on Monday and it’ll drag a strong cold front through the area with additional shower activity and perhaps a strong thunderstorm. This frontal passage will end the warm spell leading to much colder conditions by Tuesday and its stays on the chilly side next Wednesday as well.
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Any long-time weather forecaster in the northeastern part of the nation knows quite well to be fearful of the “back door” cool front this time of year as it can make a forecast of summer-like temperatures look rather foolish with winter-like reality instead. Indeed, the “back door” cool front is rather common in the northeastern part of the US during the months of March and April, and it can mean the difference of 30-40 degrees over a short distance, and the difference between summer and winter weather conditions over a short period of time.
In fact, there can be winter-like temperatures this Saturday in Boston, Massachusetts while a summer-like feel is as close by as Harford, Connecticut, and summer-like temperatures in New York City and New Jersey on Saturday can drop significantly by Sunday after the passage of a “back door” cool front from northeast-to-southwest. The key factor in the potential dramatic impact of the passage of a “back door” cool front this time of year is that the western Atlantic Ocean is still quite cold so a switch of low-level flow of air from a warmer continental direction to an ocean flow can result in substantial temperature swings.
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It becomes breezy today and stays on the cool side despite plenty of sunshine with afternoon high temperatures in the low-to-mid 50’s. It turns slightly milder on Friday with increasing clouds and then a warm front pushes through on Friday night likely accompanied by some shower activity. Following the passage of the warm front, temperatures should surge on Saturday to well up in the 70’s and there should be some sunshine and a stiff breeze. This surge in temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region will be muted somewhat on Sunday as clouds will become dominate and help to knock temperatures down some from Saturday’s warmth and there will be an increasing chance of showers later in the weekend. Looking ahead, a strong storm will pass by to the northwest of the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor region on Monday and it’ll drag a strong cold front through the area with additional shower activity. This frontal passage will end the warm spell in a hurry leading to much colder-than-normal conditions by Tuesday, April 1st, and it stays on the cool side for next Wednesday as well.
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The “boys of summer” are back in town...big-league baseball gets underway on Thursday with home openers in New York City (Yankees vs. Brewers) and Washington, D.C. (Nationals vs Phillies) where there should be loads of sunshine and dry, cool conditions. High pressure will be in control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday resulting in the dry, cool conditions with highs likely in the lower 50’s across New York City and the upper 50’s in the D.C. metro. After a warm frontal passage on Friday night, a major-league warmup is coming on Saturday with 80 degrees on the table in at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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