Hurricane Dorian is now about 90 miles east of Daytona Beach, moving to the NNW at 8 mph with max sustained winds at 105 mph (category 2). It will parallel the coastline through the morning hours and then begin a turn to the north and develop a higher forward speed later today and tonight on its way towards the coastlines of Georgia and the Carolinas. The threat for additional beach erosion is high; especially, to the north of Cape Canaveral and tropical storm force winds are likely in squalls and perhaps even hurricane force winds in Volusia County. The threat for damage to trees and power lines is still high today and torrential downpours can cause ponding in poor drainage areas. By later tomorrow, Hurricane Dorian will head right over the Outer Banks of North Carolina and will begin to be influenced by an upper-level trough of low pressure pushing southeast across the Great Lakes. As a result, Hurricane Dorian will begin to accelerate to the northeast and should slide well east of the Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow night and Friday.
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Hurricane Dorian has finally resumed some movement today as the latest measurements have it moving to the northwest at 2 mph after being stationary for nearly 24 hours. From later today into Wednesday, Hurricane Dorian should turn north-northwest and run parallel to the east coast of Florida as it picks up some forward speed. It’ll then close in on the Carolina coastline by Thursday where it is not out of the question that it makes a landfall somewhere on its way to the Outer Banks (North Carolina). After that, Hurricane Dorian will likely pass well to the east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline from Thursday night into Friday with its greatest impact limited to coastal sections.
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Hurricane Dorian continues to remain nearly stationary this morning just north of Grand Bahama Island and should resume a slow northwestward movement later this morning. From later today into Wednesday, Hurricane Dorian should turn north-northwest and run parallel to the east coast of Florida as it picks up some forward speed. As Hurricane Dorian makes its closest approach later today, residents can expect increasing winds and gusty squalls. In addition, beach erosion will increase in intensity and the threat for high storm surge will continue for at least another day or so. As Hurricane Dorian has been nearly stationary over the past day or so, upwelling has increased underneath its center and this has brought cooler waters to the sea surface. In turn, the cooler sea surface temperatures have resulted in a weakening of the hurricane from a category 5 system to category 3 now with max sustained winds at 120 mph.
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Major Hurricane Dorian is now a category 5 storm and continues to be a significant threat to Florida and the to rest of the US east coast. It is now moving westward at 8 mph with max sustained winds at 160 mph and is approaching the northwestern Bahamas. By tomorrow, powerful Dorian will be slowing down to a crawl as it crosses over the NW Bahamas and closes in on the east coast of Florida. Later tomorrow and Tuesday, as Dorian makes its closest approach to the east coast of Florida, the hurricane will begin a turn toward the northwest/north and likely begin to move parallel to the coastline. Since there is still some uncertainty with the track forecast and a slight shift will make a huge difference, the eastern part of Florida remains under the threat of direct impacts from Dorian; especially, near the coastline. Later in the week, Dorian is likely to take a ride up along the east coast impacting the coastal Carolinas and perhaps eventually impacting the Mid-Atlantic region and New England.
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Major Hurricane Dorian continues to move westward approaching the northwestern Bahamas and its forward speed has slowed to 8 mph. By Monday, powerful Dorian will be moving northwest toward the central Florida Atlantic waters. As Dorian slowly begins to make its closest approach to the east central Florida coast, the hurricane will make a turn toward the north-northwest and move parallel to the coastline. Since there is still some uncertainty with the track forecast, east central Florida remains under the threat of direct impacts from Dorian; especially, along the coast.
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A serious weather situation continues to unfold as Hurricane Dorian intensifies and continues on a path towards the Bahamas and Florida with possible landfall later Monday into Tuesday. Hurricane Dorian has reached category 2 status as of early Friday morning and could reach “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3) later in the day. High pressure ridging in the upper part of the atmosphere is a key player in the intensification and movement of Hurricane Dorian and it should result in additional strengthening over the next couple of days – perhaps to category 4 status.
As Hurricane Dorian nears the northwestern Bahamas later this weekend, the upper-level ridge will tend to weaken and this is likely to result in a slowing down of the system. The weakening ridge may also allow for a turn to the northwest as Hurricane Dorian approaches Florida and then a turn to the north and northeast once near or just over land. This could very well result in a slow trek up along the eastern seaboard later next week; in other words, we may still be talking about Hurricane Dorian a week from now.
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Hurricane Dorian continues to move to the northwest and is still categorized as a category 1 storm with max sustained winds at 85 mph. There have been intermittent signs of a small inner eye in satellite imagery during the past few hours. As atmospheric and oceanic conditions become more favorable over the next few days, Dorian is likely to strengthen into “major” hurricane status as it begins a shift from northwest-to-west with intensifying upper-level ridging to the north. On this track, Dorian would approach the east coast of Florida on Monday or Tuesday – likely as a “major” – but all residents from the Carolinas to Georgia have to stay on guard as a last minute turn to the northwest/north cannot be ruled out before it ever even reaches Florida.
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All residents from North Carolina to Florida should closely monitor Tropical Storm Dorian over the next few days as it can have a major impact by later this weekend or early next week in any part of this region. Tropical Storm Dorian has strengthened over the past 12-18 hours and has effectively fought off dry air over the Caribbean Sea. In addition, the current track will take the storm over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in the near term – largely avoiding the island of Hispaniola which could have resulted in substantial weakening given its rugged terrain. Once TS Dorian makes it past the Caribbean islands and into the southwestern Atlantic, it’ll move over very warm waters and encounter more favorable environmental conditions (e.g., low wind shear) for intensification. If TS Dorian doesn’t reach hurricane status in the next several hours, it is very likely to in the next day or two once out over the southwest Atlantic Ocean and “major” (category 3+) hurricane status is certainly on the table in a few days.
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There are two big weather stories unfolding for the Mid-Atlantic region for the next few days with the potential of severe thunderstorms and torrential rainfall later today and tonight as the remains of Barry pass through the region and then the hottest weather of the summer so far in the Friday through Sunday time frame. An already very warm and moist atmosphere will get even more unstable later today and tonight as a trough of low pressure associated with what was once tropical cyclone Barry passes through leading to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Once this large tropical moisture field pushes away from the area, an atmospheric blow torch will setup and cause temperatures to soar on Friday in the I-95 corridor and it’ll stay excessively hot and humid this weekend with a run to 100 degrees possible during this stretch. There can be scattered showers and storms late Sunday with a weak frontal system and then more showers and storms on Monday associated with an even stronger frontal system which will usher in cooler air by next Tuesday. In fact, the remainder of July looks much more pleasant across the eastern half of the nation with normal-to-below normal temperatures and we could very well look back on this Friday-to-Sunday heat wave as the worst of the summer in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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A disturbance will bring more heavy rain to the region; especially, during the morning hours and there can be a thunderstorm mixed in as well. Watch for some serious localized flooding conditions and as always, "turn around, don't drown". Building high pressure will result in some clearing later tonight and the next couple of days will feature plenty of sunshine and warm conditions. The high pressure system will shift to the east of here by later Wednesday and a cold front will cross the area later Thursday into Friday and there can be some strong thunderstorm activity associated with the late week frontal system. Elsewhere, low pressure now situated over the Southeast US is likely to drop southward to over the Gulf of Mexico and it could very well intensify into a tropical storm later in the week.
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