A warm front has lifted north of the region and the result today will be a blast of summer-like temperatures and humidity. In fact, highs this afternoon will be near the 90 degree mark in many spots to go along with the noticeable humidity and afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely. Any storm that forms later today and tonight can be on the strong-to-severe side with damaging wind gusts, hail, and brief heavy rainfall. A cool front will approach the region by tonight and then this system will stall nearby on Thursday. As a result, there will be unsettled conditions for the remainder of the work week with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms and some of the rain can fall heavily at times. Another cool front will arrive this weekend and it should become more comfortable around here on Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere, all eyes on the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Cristobal should head northward over the next few days towards the central/western Gulf coast.
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Tropical moisture is flowing northward into the eastern US from the Gulf of Mexico, southwestern Atlantic, and the Caribbean Sea. This influx of tropical moisture is combining with a painfully slow-moving frontal system and a vigorous wave of energy in the upper atmosphere to fuel a widespread area of heavy rain that extends from Florida to the Northeast US. The heavier and steadier rain has moved into the DC metro region and should arrive in Philly this afternoon and New York City by this evening. The potential exists for as much as 1.5 - 3.0 inches of rain in much of the eastern US between now and mid-day Friday. Flash flooding will become an increasing concern given the heavy rainfall and the already pretty well saturated grounds. Winds will also be an important factor with this storm system as gusts could easily pass 50 mph in some spots; especially, near and along coastal regions - watch for power outages.
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The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US over the past few weeks will continue well into the month of May aided in part by a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. The upper-level jet stream across the country is very active as we wind down the month of April and it has featured numerous strong waves of energy in recent days and another one has dropped southeastward into the Mississippi Valley region from southwestern Canada. This wave of energy aloft and its corresponding surface low pressure system will move very slowly over the next 48 hours due to a blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere over the southern part of Canada. These slow-moving systems and a painfully slow-moving surface frontal boundary zone will combine with an influx of tropical moisture to produce a major rain event from tomorrow into early Friday in the eastern US extending from the Carolinas to New York State. Localized flash flooding is likely to become a serious concern during this upcoming event with 2-4 inches of rain on the table in many areas.
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The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US over the past few weeks will continue well into May aided in part by a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. The upper-level jet stream across the country as we close out the month of April is very active and has featured numerous strong waves of energy in recent days and another one is on the way. This next powerful wave of energy aloft will dive southeast from southwestern Canada into the Upper Midwest by tomorrow afternoon and then slide into the Mid-Atlantic region by late Thursday. The combination of this wave of energy in the upper atmosphere, a painfully slow-moving surface frontal system, and a strong flow of very humid air up along the east coast will likely result in a major rain event for the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and Thursday night. Given the well saturated grounds from recent rainfall, this type of potential significant rain event could very well lead to localized flash flooding conditions and will have to be closely monitored.
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A very active weather pattern will likely continue across the eastern half of the nation into the early part of May in large part due to a continuation of cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern US. These on-going cold air outbreaks are combining with increasingly warm and humid conditions across the southern US to help in the generation of storms and also has increased the chances for severe weather outbreaks; especially, across the southern states. In fact, tornadoes this year are running at above-normal levels and are the highest for the month of April since 2011. The next storm in a series of storms will impact the Mid-Atlantic region from today into late Friday and then another system arrives over the upcoming weekend and colder-than-normal conditions will persist through the period.
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The late night and morning hours featured some steady and heavy rainfall rain in the I-95 corridor and it has resulted in localized flash flooding conditions along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The overall precipitation pattern will become more variable for the next several hours with multiple bands and the continued threat for downpours, but also the chance for a “break in the action” at times. As a strong cold front presses to the east across the eastern Ohio Valley, thunderstorms are breaking out to our west. Some of these storms can reach severe levels by the time they reach the I-95 corridor with hail a possibility to go along with heavy rainfall and damaging winds and there is even the chance for isolated tornadoes.
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A major storm will impact a large part of the nation from today into Monday with a wide-ranging set of conditions from accumulating snows in its cold sector to heavy rain and severe weather in areas to the east and south of the storm track. Low pressure will consolidate over the central Plains today and then intensify significantly as it pushes northeastward through the Great Lakes region early Monday and then to the Hudson Bay, Canada region by Monday night. Accumulating snows are likely from this storm from the Rockies to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan where a foot or more can fall. The threat for severe weather will be widespread from today into tonight in the region extending from Texas/Louisiana to the Carolinas and as far north as the Ohio Valley as ingredients come together to destabilize the atmosphere. A significant rain and extreme wind event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday with heavy rain, damaging wind gusts of 60+ mph, and perhaps severe thunderstorm activity with hail and isolated tornadoes. All of this will be followed by a cold blast of air for mid-April that will arrive in the eastern US on Tuesday and a weaker low pressure system could produce more precipitation from Tuesday night into Wednesday - and it could even be cold enough for wet snow in some areas.
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A major storm will impact a large part of the nation from tomorrow into Monday with a wide-ranging set of conditions from accumulating snows in its cold sector to heavy rain and severe weather in areas to the east and south of the storm track. Low pressure will consolidate over the Mississippi Valley on Sunday morning and then intensify significantly as it pushes northeastward into the Great Lakes region by Monday morning. Accumulating snows are likely from this storm from the Rockies to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan where a foot or more can fall. The threat for severe weather will be widespread from Sunday into Sunday night in the region extending from Texas/Louisiana to the Carolinas as ingredients come together to destabilize the atmosphere. A significant rain and extreme wind event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region from Sunday night into Monday and it can include damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph and perhaps severe thunderstorm activity. All of this will be followed by a cold blast of air for mid-April that will arrive in the eastern US on Tuesday and another low pressure system could even produce some in parts of the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday night and Wednesday.
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Low pressure is now intensifying over the Tennessee Valley and it has tremendous support in the upper part of the atmosphere with a vigorous wave of energy and a powerful jet streak. This developing storm will have a wide ranging impact in the eastern US over the next 24 hours or so with severe weather in the southeastern states, heavy rain/strong thunderstorms and potential flooding in the Mid-Atlantic region, and significant snow across interior sections of the Northeast US.
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Dew point temperatures have plunged in the last 24 hours as a cold and very dry Arctic air mass takes hold in the Mid-Atlantic region and this will set the stage for a wintry mess on Saturday to include snow, sleet, freezing rain and some accumulations. This Arctic air mass is being anchored by strong high pressure building into the southeastern part of Canada and it will be very reluctant to give up its ground on Saturday as precipitation moves in from the Ohio Valley. As a result, temperatures will struggle to climb above freezing on Saturday; especially, in the northern and western suburbs along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this will likely result in an extended period of frozen precipitation.
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