Spring season has begun and with it comes the threat of severe weather across much of the southern US during the next few days. Many ingredients are coming together for a severe weather event later today and tonight that will be focused on the central and eastern parts of Texas and this threat zone will shift slightly to the east on Tuesday encompassing the region from Louisiana-to-Mississippi-to-Alabama. A primary culprit in this unfolding scenario is an expansive upper-level trough whose base is now centered over the Southwest US and will shift only slightly to the east on Tuesday. In addition, there is a clash of air masses setting up in this part of the nation with cold, dry air sweeping eastward from the southwestern states into a very warm and humid air mass out ahead of it over the eastern half of Texas.
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It looks like there will be a very active frontal passage in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later tomorrow night into early Friday. Temperatures will surge on Thursday ahead of the strong cold front and showers will become numerous on Thursday night. In fact, some of the rain can briefly fall on the heavy side later tomorrow night into early Friday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture.
Of more concern, however, is the likelihood for powerful winds and there can be potentially damaging wind gusts with scattered power outages certainly on the table. The likely time period of greatest concern will be in the hour or two immediately following the passage of the surface cold front associated with an expected surge in pressure and a shift in wind direction. The likely location of greatest concern for these possible damaging wind gusts will be along coastal sections from Virginia-to-Maine. Moderately chilly air will follow the early Friday frontal passage and then a reinforcing shot of cold arrives on Saturday supported by a strong wave aloft that can result in snow shower activity across the northeastern states.
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It looks like there will be a very active frontal passage in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later Thursday night into early Friday. Temperatures will surge on Thursday ahead of the strong cold front and showers will become numerous by Thursday night. In fact, some of the rain can briefly fall on the heavy side later Thursday night into early Friday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture. Of more concern, however, is the likelihood for powerful winds from later Thursday night into early Friday and there can be potentially damaging wind gusts (i.e., power outages are on the table); especially, near and along the eastern seaboard from Virginia-to-Maine.
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The slow-moving Arctic front that has been the focus area of significant snow, ice and rain in recent days has crossed through the I-95 corridor region this morning and temperatures have responded accordingly by dropping quickly from very mild early day levels. As a result, plain rain that continues to fall at this time can begin to freeze on some untreated surfaces later in the day and sleet and/or snow can mix in as well by day’s end. Temperatures will continue to drop in the nighttime hours so any still-standing water will certainly freeze as the Arctic air mass arrives in full. Overall impacts of the icing in the immediate I-95 corridor region will be rather limited since drier air will tend to inhibit any appreciable precipitation amounts not long after temperatures drop to the freezing mark or below.
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Quite a muddy mess in the Mid-Atlantic region today with occasional rain, snowmelt, and some patchy fog as well - all out ahead of a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system that has wreaked havoc on much of the heartland during the past couple of days with snow, ice and rain. That cold front will inch its way across the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor tomorrow morning and an Arctic air mass will filter into the region from the northwest-to-southeast. After a very mild start early in the day along the immediate I-95 corridor, temperatures will fall throughout the remainder of Friday following the passage of the Arctic front. As a result, any plain rain that is falling early tomorrow can begin to freeze on some untreated surfaces by mid-day or early afternoon across suburban locations to the north and west. The rain can also mix with or change to sleet and/or snow for a brief time later in the day on Friday. It does appear that the icing potential in this case will be rather limited in nature around here as drier air will tend to inhibit any appreciable amounts of precipitation while we are on the cold side of the front. Temperatures are likely to continue to drop tomorrow night which can lead to a quick freeze-up of any standing water that still remains.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day today and late Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system will easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. Some snow is likely to break out today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and then the main event will come tonight and Saturday from this intensifying storm. Very cold air will push into the eastern states during the height of the storm on Saturday and it’ll be bitter cold tomorrow night with brutal wind chills. This Arctic blast will plunge all the way down to southern Florida and even to Cuba. Miami is likely to experience lows in the 30’s this weekend for the first time since 2010.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day Friday and late Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system may rather easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. Some snow is likely to break out during the day on Friday across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US as an Arctic cold frontal system arrives and small accumulations are even possible. The main event by the rapidly intensifying ocean storm will take place on Friday night and Saturday. Very cold air will follow on its heels later this weekend all the way down to the southern part of Florida where Miami could see lows in the 30’s for the first time since 2010.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day Friday and mid-day Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system may rather easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. The exact timing of the rapid intensification and the ultimate track of the storm are still somewhat unclear at this time and while a significant impact appears quite likely for eastern New England, there is a chance that at least part of the Mid-Atlantic region escapes with only a moderate or minor impact.
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A cold and active weather pattern will continue this week across the eastern US and there is continued potential for an intense ocean storm at week’s end. Many ingredients are likely to come together at the end of the week that will allow for explosive intensification of surface low pressure somewhere off the US east coast. These ingredients include the following: strong jet streaks in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, plenty of very cold air to the north and west, relatively warm waters in the western Atlantic, and deepening low pressure aloft that will at some point take on a “negative” tilt in its axis orientation. It is still a bit too early to determine the ultimate storm track and exactly when the explosive intensification will take place, but all residents in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US should continue to closely monitor this unfolding intense ocean storm scenario.
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A cold and active weather pattern will continue this last full week of January across the eastern US and there is growing potential for an important ocean storm early this weekend. Any impact in the Mid-Atlantic region would likely be in the Friday night/Saturday time frame and it will largely depend on the ultimate track of the storm and its intensification rate. Many ingredients are going to come together at the end of the week that will allow for explosive intensification of surface low pressure including the following: jet streaks in the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, plenty of cold air to the north and west, and deepening low pressure aloft that takes on a “negative” tilt. At this time, it is just too early to tell if this ocean storm will track well off the coast, close in or perhaps even ends up taking a slightly inland track which is a scenario that is still on the table though not too likely. It certainly looks like it’ll be an interesting next few days as we track this growing threat.
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