The new week started off with hot, humid conditions and scattered showers and thunderstorms – much the same type of weather as the previous several days. Big changes are coming, however, by the middle of the week in the Tennessee Valley. A fairly unsettled weather pattern will develop as an upper-level trough drops southward from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley during the mid-week. One big change here will be the noticeable change in temperatures which started the week well up in the 90’s for afternoon highs, but likely will be confined to the 80’s during the latter part of the week. Elsewhere, we’re keeping a close eye on the tropics as a system in the central Atlantic could threaten the Southeast US by early next week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to an active start with eight named storms already and another (still unnamed) wave over the central Atlantic. This latest tropical wave pushed off the west coast of Africa late last week and is likely to intensify over the next few days as it takes a general W-NW track. There is a good chance that this system moves first towards the northern Caribbean island chain and then to near the Bahamas over the next several days. Whether or not this tropical system ultimately impacts the Southeast US may be largely dependent on an unusually strong upper-level trough that is likely to dig into the south-central states by the weekend.
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The new week will start off with much of the same type of weather as the old week with hot, humid conditions and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Big changes are coming, however, by the middle of the week. A fairly unsettled weather pattern will develop around here at mid-week as an upper-level trough drops southward from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley. One big change will be with respect to the temperatures which will start the week well up in the 90’s for afternoon highs, but likely be confined to the 80’s during the second half of the week.
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The Atlantic Basin now features three tropical systems to closely monitor in this very active early part of the 2020 tropical season. Tropical Storm Hanna is churning westward across the Gulf of Mexico and is on a path to make landfall on Saturday in southeastern Texas - quite likely as a hurricane. Tropical Storm Gonzalo has been relatively steady recently in terms of its intensity, but there are signs that it should weaken over the next couple of days as it moves towards the Caribbean Sea. A third and quite large tropical wave has just emerged from the west coast of Africa and it has great potential for intensification over the next several days. This third system is likely to head to a position quite close to where Tropical Storm Gonzalo currently resides, and it very well could have an impact on the US in 10-15 days.
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Tropical air remains well-entrenched across the region as we end the work week and this will lead to another hot and humid day along with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. More of the same weather can be expected this weekend with highs in the 90’s and a continuing shot at daily showers and thunderstorms. The first half of next week is likely to be a bit less hot than the next few days. Then a strong front may bring bring cooler temperatures for the second half of next week as an upper-level trough forms in the eastern US. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Basin tropical scene remains quite active with Tropical Storm Hannah over the western Gulf of Mexico closing in on the Texas coastline and Tropical Storm Gonzalo churning to the west over the central Atlantic. This second system will end up pushing over the Caribbean Sea this weekend.
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A potpourri of topics today ranging from another day with a strong thunderstorm threat in the Mid-Atlantic region to an active Atlantic Basin tropical scene to an update on Comet NEOWISE which is making its closest approach to Earth later tonight. First, on the weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region, yet another wave of energy aloft will combine with considerable amounts of moisture in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere to bring another shot at strong storms later today and tonight. Second, on the tropics, an impressive tropical wave over the central Gulf of Mexico is likely headed to the east coast of Texas by the early part of the weekend and it will result in heavy rainfall in that part of the southern US. A second tropical system, Tropical Storm Gonzalo, has run into a bit of dry air which has halted its intensification in recent hours as it continues to push towards the Caribbean Sea. A third tropical wave has just emerged off the west coast of Africa and it may become an important player to monitor next week. Finally, Comet NEOWISE makes its closest approach to the Earth later tonight and it won’t be back around these parts for about 6800 years.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has become quite active with an impressive system over the Gulf of Mexico and also a tropical storm (Gonzalo) over the central tropical Atlantic. The Gulf system has a chance to intensify into a named tropical storm over the next day or so as it heads towards the northwestern part of the Gulf. Heavy rain is likely by the weekend from this Gulf system across much of Texas and Louisiana and it could make landfall somewhere along the east coast of Texas. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gonzalo could very well climb to hurricane status as it pushes towards the Caribbean Sea reaching that body of water this weekend.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical scene has become quite active with an impressive system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and also a newly named tropical storm over the central tropical Atlantic. The Gulf system has a chance to intensify into a named tropical storm over the next couple of days as it heads towards the northwestern part of the Gulf and Tropical Storm Gonzalo could very well climb to hurricane status over the next couple of days in the central Atlantic.
Elsewhere, a wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere is combining with a stalled out frontal boundary zone and plenty of moisture to spark some strong thunderstorm activity at mid-day in the western part of the Mid-Atlantic region and across the Ohio Valley. Some of these thunderstorm cells will make it into the I-95 corridor at day’s end and likely reach strong-to-severe levels with the potential of damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.
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High pressure over the region will weaken some today and this will allow for a bit more in the way of thunderstorm activity over the next couple of days. Overall conditions will remain on the hot and humid side and this summer-like pattern will continue right through the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, there are multiple tropical waves to monitor in the Atlantic Basin and couple more moving over Africa likely leading to an active period as we progress through the latter part of the month.
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A wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere is combining with a stalled out frontal boundary zone and plenty of moisture to spark some strong thunderstorm activity in the western part of the Mid-Atlantic region and some of these cells will make it into the I-95 corridor at day’s end. An even stronger wave of energy aloft will likely generate thunderstorms later tomorrow for the Mid-Atlantic region and some of these can reach severe levels with heavy rainfall, hail and potential damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere, the Atlantic Basin tropical scene has become more active with two systems to monitor over the next few days and additional waves are drifting westward over Africa assuring an active last stretch of the month of July.
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