Every once in awhile there is a frontal passage that is a longer-term pattern changer and tomorrow night, we will experience such a front in the Mid-Atlantic region and NE US. October has been generally warmer-than-normal in the eastern US with Philly, for example, at +3.2 ºF for the month so far and Washington’s Reagan National Airport at +4.4 ºF. The strong cold front that will pass through the region tomorrow night with downpours, strong-to-severe thunderstorms, and howling winds gusting up to 50 mph will usher in much cooler air for Friday and Saturday and then a secondary front on Sunday will usher in the coldest air of the season so far. A widespread freeze is likely on Sunday night for the first time this season in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US and a colder-than-normal pattern is likely to continue for much of the month of November.
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Record-breaking cold has spread from the western US into the central part of the nation and several sites have experienced their coldest temperatures ever for the month of October during the past couple of days. In fact, there is an unofficial report of nearly 35 degrees below zero in a remote observing station in northern Utah on Monday morning which would be the coldest temperature ever recorded in the Lower 48 during the month of October. Accumulating snow is accompanying the record cold in many places with several inches likely again today across much of Colorado and the region from Nebraska to Wisconsin is in store for some accumulations as well over the next couple of days.
The slow-moving strong cold front at the leading edge of the cold air mass will arrive in the I-95 corridor later Thursday night and it could be accompanied by torrential rain and possible strong thunderstorms. Once the cooler-than-normal air arrives in the eastern US, it looks like the below-normal temperature pattern will stick around for awhile as we head through the month of November.
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Amarillo, Texas received 5.5 inches of snow on Thursday – the 6th earliest snow accumulation on record – and the much colder-than-normal weather is not over with yet in the south-central US. In fact, another cold air outbreak next week will likely bring much colder-than-normal air to a large part of the nation with records lows possible in the Rocky Mountain States and then central US. The colder-than-normal air mass will spread quite slowly to the eastern US with a possible arrival time to coincide with Halloween Night (Thursday night) or early Friday - and that means possible rain, wind and even strong thunderstorms for the “trick-or-treaters” in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US with mild conditions just ahead of the strong cold front. Once the colder-than-normal pattern becomes established late next week, it looks like it could stick around awhile as we head through the beginning of the month of November.
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While the eastern US is enjoying calm and seasonably cool conditions today under the domination of sprawling high pressure, there is a lot of weather to talk about across the rest of the nation. First, an unusual cold shot for late October has plunged all the way into the south-central US and it is going to be a contributing factor to accumulating snow later today in places like the Texas Panhandle. In addition, a strong tropical wave has become better organized during the past several hours over the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico and it will make a move to the north in coming days. As a result, copious amounts of tropical moisture will merge with an eastward moving cold front over the next couple of days and the result will be significant rainfall from the Gulf of Mexico to the Ohio Valley.
Looking ahead, another cold air mass for this time of year will drop down from Canada early next week into the Rocky Mountain States and spread out across the central US. This next air mass will likely be cold enough to generate widespread record low temperatures during the early and middle parts of next week from the Rockies to the Plains and more accumulating snow is likely to fall in many of those areas.
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The World Series between the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros began last night in Houston, Texas, but weather was not a factor. The Astros stadium known as Minute Maid Park has a retractable roof and it was closed last night for Game 1 which was won by the Nationals with a 5-4 score. The World Series will shift to Washington, D.C. on Friday night for Game 3 and then Games 4 and 5 (if necessary) are scheduled for Saturday night and Sunday night respectively.
From this vantage point, it appears the weather will be decent for Game 3 on Friday night with cool and dry conditions, but then rain could become a factor this weekend for Games 4 and/or 5. It does not appear that any of these three scheduled games in Washington, D.C. will be played under truly cold conditions as any significant cold air outbreak for the Mid-Atlantic region should hold off until later next week – perhaps in time for Halloween Day. Weather has indeed had a big impact on some World Series games in recent history in terms of both cold and precipitation.
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A tropical system continues to slowly intensify over the Gulf of Mexico and has now reached named (Nestor) tropical storm status. This system is moving to the northeast and will approach the northern Gulf coast later today and tonight and then move inland across the southeast US this weekend. By late Sunday, this tropical storm will likely move offshore somewhere near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and it could generate some rainfall on its NW side in the Mid-Atlantic region late Saturday night/Sunday morning. Looking in the extended time period, some impressive cold air outbreaks are likely to impact the central and eastern US during the last week of October and the first week of November – perhaps leading to quite a chilly Halloween for lots of people across the eastern half of the nation.
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A vigorous upper-level low is dropping southeastward across the Great Lakes today and will interact with a powerful jet streak over the Tennessee Valley to help set off the formation of a strong coastal storm. This low will intensify this afternoon and tonight and will bring a soaking rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast US – the likes of which haven’t been seen in many weeks. Winds will become an increasing problem as well and could gust past 50 mph later tonight and on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US following the departure of the strong storm and possibly to hurricane force along coastal regions of southern New England. As some colder air wraps into the system on Thursday, there is a threat for a changeover to snow in some of the higher elevations of northern New York and New England.
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A vigorous upper-level low will drop southeastward across the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will help to set off the formation of a powerful coastal low along the east coast. This low will intensify on Wednesday and begin to impact the Mid-Atlantic region with significant rainfall – something that hasn’t been seen much in recent weeks. The storm will continue to intensify as it rides up along the Northeast US coastline late Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing with it heavy rainfall, strong winds and ultimately, even a changeover to snow in some of the higher elevations of New England. Following the storm, winds will be quite strong on Thursday and temperatures will struggle to escape the 50’s in much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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At this time yesterday, temperatures were in the mid 70’s in Denver, Colorado and the latest observation has quite a difference: 19 degrees, snow and wind gusts to 26 mph. In fact, a few inches of snow has already been reported in the Denver/Boulder Colorado region with significantly higher amounts across Montana which was very hard hit with snow a couple of weeks ago. As this developing storm continues to intensify and pushes off to the northeast over the next couple of days, the “bulls eye” region for snowfall may be eastern North Dakota where more than two feet is possible by early Saturday. Meanwhile, on the other side of the nation, a nor’easter is pounding away at southern New England with heavy rainfall and strong winds.
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A very active weather pattern across North America will bring a tremendous early season shot of cold air and accumulating snow to the region from the Rockies to the Northern Plains over the next few days and two systems off the east coast will merge into one powerful storm just off the Mid-Atlantic/NE US coastlines. As much as two feet of snow is possible in coming days to the Northern and significant rain and wind is possible from the Atlantic low(s) in southern New England.
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