An active weather pattern continues across the nation and this will lead to more chances of rain for the Mid-Atlantic region and also quite a topsy-turvy temperature pattern. In fact, temperatures could climb well up into the 70’s on Friday in at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region ahead of a strong cold frontal system. That cold front will usher in progressively colder air for the weekend and there is actually a chance for some snow early next week in the Mid-Atlantic region as moisture is likely to advance to the northeast and into a cold air mass that will be slow to retreat.
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Explosive intensification is about to take place with an ocean storm now over the western Atlantic. A strong “clipper” system is moving into the Mid-Atlantic region and it is interacting with the upper-level energy that remains from the ocean storm which soaked the southern US earlier in the week. This interaction will result in a drop of central pressure of the ocean storm from around 992 millibars (29.29 inches) at the current time to around 965 millibars (28.50 inches) by the middle of tonight. While this ocean storm is situated well off the east coast, it is still going to influence the Mid-Atlantic region late today and tonight as an inverted trough (aka “norlun” trough) is forming from the center of the low pressure system northwestward to the Mid-Atlantic. As a result, there are rain showers this afternoon throughout the Mid-Atlantic region and even a few embedded thunderstorms. However, as colder air aloft becomes wrapped up into the overall system, a mixing with and changeover to snow is possible later today or early tonight in many spots and there can even be some grassy accumulations; especially, in higher elevation suburban locations.
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A strong “clipper” system will drop southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and it’ll feature some rather cold air in the upper part of the atmosphere. At the same time, the southern storm that continues today to produce significant rainfall in the SE US will intensify after it moves out over the open waters of the western Atlantic. In fact, this storm could intensify to a point where it is produces hurricane-force winds by tomorrow night in the western Atlantic. While this ocean storm will be situated well off the east coast, it’ll still have an influence in the Mid-Atlantic region as an inverted trough (aka “norlun” trough) will extend from the low pressure center all the way back to the Mid-Atlantic. The combination of the “clipper” system in the northern stream and the inverted trough associated with the ocean storm is likely to lead to rain and/or snow showers in the Mid-Atlantic later tomorrow and tomorrow night. In some “norlun” trough cases, small-scale heavier precipitation bands can develop and we’ll have to closely monitor that possibility late tomorrow and tomorrow night.
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A strong “clipper” system will drop southeastward across the Great Lakes on Friday and it’ll feature some quite cold air in the upper part of the atmosphere. At the same time, the southern storm that continues today to produce significant rainfall from Texas to the Carolinas will intensify after it moves into the western Atlantic. While this storm will be situated well off the east coast by later Friday, there can be an inverted trough of low pressure (aka “norlun” trough) extending from the low pressure center all the way back to the Mid-Atlantic region which can also contribute to some instability in the atmosphere. The combination of the “clipper” system and the inverted trough is likely to lead to rain and/or snow showers on Friday and Friday night and we’ll have to closely monitor the situation to see if any heavier bands of precipitation develop; especially, across places like eastern PA and NJ.
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An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms has developed across eastern Ohio and West Virginia associated with a cold frontal system and they’ll advance to the east over the next few hours. By later this evening, brief downpours will be possible in the I-95 corridor region and there can be an embedded strong thunderstorm or two as well. High pressure will take over for much of Wednesday and Thursday, but then a strong “clipper” system will create instability in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Friday and Friday night with the threat of rain and/or snow showers.
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A strong wave of energy is sitting off the coast of southern California at mid-day Monday and it’ll push eastward across northern Mexico and then into Texas by mid-week. This upper-level system will help to spawn the development of a strong surface low pressure system in Texas by early Wednesday and this storm will spread significant rainfall to the southern states from Texas to the Carolinas in the Wednesday/Thursday time period. By late Thursday, the southern low will push towards the Carolina coastline at the same time a northern stream wave of energy drops southeastward across the Great Lakes. This two upper-level features will likely phase together at the end of the week, but it’s a little too early to tell the exact timing and placement of the phase which will have an impact as to how far north and west the southern storm’s precipitation shield can extend. Temperatures are likely to be borderline in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US at the end of the week with respect to rain versus snow; however, colder air will be sitting just to the northwest and it certainly can feed in making this an unfolding scenario to closely monitor in coming days.
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The weekend will turn out to be quite cold for this time of year in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US, but a warming trend will begin on Sunday across the Mississippi Valley. At the same time, a strong wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will crash into California and this will become one key player in the eastern half of the nation by the middle of next week. The combination of warmer and increasingly humid air and strong energy aloft may very well result in a major rain event next week from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the eastern US.
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It’ll stay relatively quiet this afternoon in the Mid-Atlantic region with nothing more than some light rain or drizzle at times to go along with mild conditions for the latter part of February. The weather story will be quite different, however, from late tonight into the day on Thursday. A very energetic weather situation is evolving for late tonight as a strong cold front will come barreling through the Mid-Atlantic region likely with brief downpours, gusty winds and perhaps a few strong-to-severe thunderstorms. It’ll turn much colder early tomorrow with stiff NW winds and these winds will actually intensify later Thursday as low pressure intensifies dramatically over the Northeast US with gusts possible to 50 mph. This incoming colder air mass will be reinforced by the early part of the weekend leading to below-normal conditions right through the upcoming weekend.
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There will be mild conditions and occasional rain or drizzle in the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon, tonight and on Wednesday along with patchy, dense fog at times; especially, in the overnight hours. A much more energetic weather situation is evolving for tomorrow night as a strong cold front will come barreling through the Mid-Atlantic with possible downpours and perhaps even some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity. It’ll turn very windy and much colder following the frontal passage late Wednesday night and Thursday with NW wind gusts possible to 50 mph. The colder-than-normal air conditions that develop on Thursday will stick around right through Sunday as a reinforcing shot of cold air will arrive by the early part of the weekend.
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It has turned colder today across the Mid-Atlantic region and an even colder air mass will push in for tomorrow and Friday. At the same time, a large batch of moisture will push northeastward on Thursday and the combination of the fresh, cold air and moisture should lead to a significant snow event from southern Virginia-to-North Carolina-to-upstate South Carolina. As has been the case for much of the winter season, the corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC will very likely escape without any appreciable snowfall, but there are some signs for more sustained cold and perhaps a better chance for snow as February winds down and March gets underway.
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