The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues as we reach the middle part of September with multiple systems on the scene extending from the western Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic Ocean. One of these systems is currently categorized as a hurricane, “Paulette”, and it is likely to impact Bermuda in the near-term. There are two tropical storms in the mix including “Rene” in the central part of the tropical Atlantic and “Sally” now over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Sally is of great concern to the northern Gulf coast region as it could slow down near and after landfall - potentially resulting in substantial rainfall amounts of more than a foot by the middle of the week. The remnants of Tropical Storm Sally are likely to push inland at mid-week bringing significant rains to the south-central states and then into the Carolinas.
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If you try to pinpoint the climatological peak in the Atlantic Basin tropical season to one particular day in terms of the number of active storms, it actually comes down to today, September 10th. Well, here we are and right on queue, there are numerous waves to monitor in the Atlantic Basin from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to just off the west coast of Africa. A few of these tropical waves are relatively close to the US and will have an impact in the near-term while another few systems are potential concerns for the second half of September. Meanwhile, the Pacific Ocean remains unusually quiet in terms of tropical activity in what should also be an active time of year. In fact, the overall tropical activity in the world’s largest ocean has been way below-normal in 2020 and this has contributed to a below-normal tropical season so far for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole.
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It is not too often that this early in September that you see significant accumulating snow on the map in the US at the same time there is an active scene in the tropical Atlantic, but that is exactly what we have going on right now. A dramatic temperature plunge in the Rocky Mountain States has brought a shift from summer-to-winter and significant snowfall is likely today in many higher elevation locations from Wyoming-to-New Mexico. As an example of the abrupt change, temperatures peaked on Monday at 92 degrees in Denver, Colorado and plunged to the mid 30’s by early this morning and half a foot of wet snow possible there by later today with a foot and a half possible in some of the mountain peaks just to their west. Meanwhile, there are three different tropical systems to monitor in the Atlantic Basin as the tropical season nears its climatological peak.
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A stretch of nice weather begins on Friday in the Mid-Atlantic region and continues through Monday, but there is a threat of severe weather before we get there. A strong cold front is crossing the Great Lakes region today and headed towards the Mid-Atlantic and its approach will enhance the chance for showers and thunderstorms in the 2-9 PM time period. Any storm that forms later today or early tonight can become severe with potentially damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall…perhaps even a few isolated tornadoes. The good news is that all of this activity clears out by early tomorrow setting the stage for a stretch of nice weather from tomorrow through the Labor Day holiday.
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The next 24-36 hours will be an active period in the Mid-Atlantic region with the threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorms both later today and again later tomorrow. A warm front lifted northward through the region earlier today and it has resulted in an increase in overall humidity levels as well as an increase temperatures now peaking in the low-to-middle 80’s. Another frontal boundary zone will approach the I-95 corridor region later in the day and this will set off some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity…likely in the 4 to 10 PM time period. An even stronger front will approach from the northwest late tomorrow and this too is likely to generate some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the Mid-Atlantic region. The good news is that all of this activity clears out early Friday - setting the stage for a stretch of nice weather from Friday into early next week.
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The next 24-36 hours will be a very active period in the Mid-Atlantic region with the threat for severe thunderstorms from later this afternoon into tomorrow night and tropical downpours. There are even signs for a “bow echo” to form later today which could result in damaging wind gusts of > 60 mph (and possible power outages); especially, across eastern Pennsylvania and the southern and central parts of New Jersey. There is even the threat for isolated tornadoes later today in the I-95 corridor. Following all of this activity, a spectacular air mass for this time of year will ride in on stiff NW winds during the day Sunday and the very comfortable temperatures and humidity levels will stay around on Monday as well. Looking ahead, it’ll turn much more unsettled again around here on Tuesday and Wednesday with a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms, and peaking even further down the road, there could be more tropical trouble to deal with in the eastern/southern states over the next week or two.
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Hurricane Laura came ashore last night near the town of Cameron in southwestern Louisiana initially estimated as a category 4 storm. It has pushed northward today into upstate Louisiana and has weakened along the way to a category 1 hurricane; however, it is still producing heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts and will continue to do so into the state of Arkansas and parts of the Tennessee Valley. By the weekend, the remains of Hurricane Laura will interact with an incoming frontal system and upper-level trough to produce some heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region along with the potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorms. All of this activity will clear the east coast by Sunday and a spectacular air mass for late August will push into the Great Lakes, Northeast US and the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Hurricane Laura has reached “major” hurricane status as a category 3 storm and it should intensify into a category 4 system this afternoon as it heads on a collision course with the Texas/Louisiana border region and expected landfall later tonight. Hurricane Laura intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours in a favorable environment of low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures and continues to intensify today - now just a bit under the required levels for a category 4 classification. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall later tonight, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states on Thursday producing heavy rainfall, severe weather, and damaging wind gusts. By the early part of the weekend, the remains of Hurricane Laura will turn to the east and get intertwined with a frontal system and an incoming vigorous upper-level trough to potentially produce some heavy rainfall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Once off the Mid-Atlantic coast, the remnants of Hurricane Laura could actually re-intensify as it moves out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic.
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A cold front is pushing towards the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and it is going to generate thunderstorms in the region late today and early tonight and some of the storms can be severe with damaging wind gusts. A line of thunderstorms is now showing up on radar across northwestern portions of the Mid-Atlantic and these will likely strengthen and expand in coverage this afternoon as they move into increasingly unstable air. The most likely timetable for thunderstorm activity in the I-95 corridor is 5-9 PM.
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Hurricane Laura could become a “major” hurricane before making landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday likely somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana border. Hurricane Laura has cleared the island of Cuba and is now pushing over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The combination of weak wind shear and very high sea surface temperatures will contribute to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hours. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall in the western Gulf coastal region, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states and result in heavy rainfall and potential severe weather and then the remnants may turn to the east, interact with a frontal system, and potentially produce heavy rainfall and severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region early in the upcoming weekend.
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