It has been an unusually dry month of March so far in the Mid-Atlantic region with zero precipitation reported in DC, Philly and NYC. The impact of the dry spell has actually been made worse with an extremely dry air mass in recent days featuring abnormally low dew point temperatures of below zero – indicative of very low moisture content in the atmosphere. Strong low pressure will bring this dry stretch to an abrupt end later in the week with significant precipitation from Thursday into Friday. The rain that falls on Thursday and Thursday night in the Mid-Atlantic region can be moderate-to-heavy at times and there is a chance that it changes briefly to snow on Friday as colder air wraps into the system.
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It is now the middle of March and the spring equinox is less than a week away, but winter is still hanging on in many portions of the nation. There are actually two chances of frozen precipitation this week in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and the past couple of days has seen a blockbuster snowstorm in the Rockies that indeed turned out be one of the all-time greats in places like Denver, Colorado and Cheyenne, Wyoming.
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It is not too unusual for big snowstorms this time of year across the Rocky Mountain States, but this weekend event has the potential to be an historic blockbuster. The threat for significant snow during this long duration event will stretch from Colorado and Wyoming to the western sections of Nebraska and South Dakota. While these numbers are still subject to change, the potential exists for 1-3 feet of snow in the Denver-to-Cheyenne corridor and even more than that in the higher elevations to the west.
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A strong and cold Canadian high pressure system will dominate the weather scene over the next few days in much of the northeastern quadrant of the nation including the Mid-Atlantic region. The days will feature colder-than-normal temperatures for early March and persistent NW winds will make it feel even colder than the actual ambient air temperature. Once this high pressure system shifts off the east coast early next week, a strong southwesterly flow of air will set up on its backside and begin a significant warm up in the central US on Sunday/Monday which will then expand into the eastern states on Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday.
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Don’t be surprised to see some snowflakes later tonight in some of the northern and western suburbs along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as moisture pushes into a relatively cold and dry air mass (dew points in the teens). In fact, there can be a coating to an inch or so in some of the nearby northern and western suburbs of Philly and NYC and also in some of the far northern and western suburbs of DC.
Rain will be the dominate precipitation type on Saturday morning in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor before it winds down at mid-day and there will be significant rainfall on Sunday and Sunday night. An Arctic front will then blast through the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and the winds will kick up noticeably later in the day and continue quite strong on Monday night. In addition, the plunge in temperatures will be quite dramatic in this short, but intense Arctic cold air outbreak and there can even be a few snow squalls in the Northeast US upon its arrival.
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The latest winter storm continues to pound away at the Mid-Atlantic with lots of snow north of the Pennsylvania/Maryland border and lots of icing to the south of there. There have been intense snow bands in the region from southeastern Pennsylvania to central New Jersey during the past few hours resulting in a quick piling up of snow to as much as 8 inches in some spots. The precipitation will tend to slacken off this afternoon, but this latest winter storm will turn into another relatively long duration event with redevelopment of the precipitation by tonight and there can be some impacts into the latter part of the day on Friday.
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A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and Thursday night and it is likely to develop into a rather long duration event and last well into the day on Friday. Snow should break out early tomorrow morning in the DC and Philly metro areas and by the late morning hours in New York City. The snow can come down hard for a few hours beginning shortly after its arrival time in the I-95 corridor. The precipitation may slacken off for a brief time later tomorrow into early tomorrow night, but more precipitation will re-develop tomorrow night likely as a wintry mix and this can change back to all snow on Friday.
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With the passage of one storm system in the overnight hours, attention to those in the Mid-Atlantic region will now turn to the next storm system and this one is likely to generate significant snow and/or ice for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with several inches on the table. The next storm will take a track farther to the east compared to last night’s system and this will help to keep in place a cold air mass that arrives in the overnight hours. This cold air mass will be anchored by strong high pressure to the north and low-level temperatures are likely to remain at or below freezing during much of the upcoming event in the immediate I-95 corridor – virtually assuring a buildup of snow and/or ice.
Elsewhere, historic and dangerous cold continues today across much of the central US. Several sites have set their all-time low temperature records and many others have experienced their lowest temperatures ever recorded in the month of February. In addition to the extreme cold, snow and ice has accumulated all the way down to the Gulf coastal region of Texas. In fact, nearly three-quarters of the US is now covered by snow which is the highest amount ever recorded since this kind of data began to be collected in 2003.
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Historic cold has gripped much of the central/southern US today with many locations experiencing their all-time lowest temperatures and many other sites breaking their monthly (February) low temperature records. In addition, snow and ice has fallen in unusual places today all the way down to the Gulf coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana. The storm responsible for the snow and ice in the Deep South will now head towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and bring a swath of accumulating snow and significant ice along its path.
As this storm heads well to the north and west of the Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor, enough warmer air should move in to generate primarily a plain rain event later today and tonight for the metro regions with icing confined to the far northern and western suburbs. A second storm later in the week will have more cold air ahead of it than this initial system and this could result in a period of accumulating snow at the onset late Wednesday night/early Thursday before a likely changeover to a wintry mix.
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Arctic air has gripped much of the northern and central US in recent days and it is plunging later this weekend to Texas and Oklahoma where the cold may be historic with all-time low temperature records likely being challenged in some spots. The longevity of this on-going cold wave across the northern and central US has been rather amazing with many areas experiencing bitter cold conditions for numerous days. In addition to the widespread and extreme cold, significant snow has accumulated in some regions including the Pacific Northwest (e.g., Seattle, Portland) and it is now moving into the Rocky Mountain States. Later in the weekend, this snow will spread into the far southern states of New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas and ice will become a problem all the way down to the Gulf coast of Texas. Ice has already become a major headache today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic region including the DC metro region where several accidents have been reported and a significant ice buildup is underway. Unfortunately, a change in the upper part of the atmosphere will likely result in additional icing events in coming days across much of the nation.
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