After today’s mix of snow and rain in areas to the north of the PA/MD border and cold rain to its south, the Mid-Atlantic will enjoy relatively tranquil conditions on Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds across the region. It will, however, turn quite active again as we begin the upcoming weekend with an Arctic cold front advancing into the eastern states. This cold frontal system will have a lots of support in the upper atmosphere which will help to contribute to the formation of surface low pressure along the frontal boundary zone and this system will intensify rapidly as it pushes northeastward.
Rain is likely ahead of the Arctic front in the Mid-Atlantic region from Friday night into early Saturday and some of it can be heavy at times and a strong thunderstorm is also possible. On the back side of the front, temperatures will drop sharply, the rain will change over to accumulating snow across interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and perhaps all the way into the I-95 corridor. In addition, high winds are likely to develop from later Saturday into Saturday night as a strong pressure gradient forms between the departing storm system and a strong high pressure in the southern states.
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The wild weather pattern continues in the Mid-Atlantic region…
First, we’ll have to deal with some snow on Wednesday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region which can even result in small accumulations; primarily, on grassy surfaces to the north of the PA/MD border. Low pressure will push from the Tennessee Valley early tomorrow to southeastern Virginia and then to a position out over the open waters of the western Atlantic Ocean by later in the afternoon.
Looking ahead, a bigger concern than tomorrow’s system will be a very active Arctic cold frontal passage early this weekend that will be accompanied by some vigorous support in the upper part of the atmosphere and a rapidly intensifying surface low pressure system. That next strong cold front will come with pre-frontal rains and possible strong thunderstorms and post-frontal extreme winds are likely as is a changeover to accumulating snow across interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. In fact, there is the possibility for some post-frontal accumulating snow all the way down into coastal sections of the northeastern quadrant of the nation. Very cold air for this time of year will envelope the entire region for the Saturday night/Sunday time period and then a big time warm up will take place in the first half of next week as the wild temperature swings continue.
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Talk about some wild weather…
The Mid-Atlantic region will experience some March madness of its own over the next 48 hours or so with record-warmth today along with high winds and late day/evening heavy showers and scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms and then much colder conditions by mid-week with the chance for accumulating snow. Today’s weather is courtesy of an approaching strong cold frontal system that will pass through the area tonight and set the stage for much colder weather by mid-week. Low pressure will push towards the southern Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Wednesday and it can be cold enough for some accumulating snow in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. Another impressive cold blast will reach the eastern states early in the upcoming weekend.
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Temperatures tumbled in the overnight hours in the Mid-Atlantic region following the passage of a cold frontal system and setting the stage for a wintry mess from today into early Friday. In fact, temperatures dropped nearly 40 degrees in the I-95 corridor from the lower 70’s on Wednesday afternoon to the lower 30’s by early today as high pressure strengthened into southeastern Canada. From this location, this high pressure system will act as an anchor and a source region for cold air during the next 24 hours – a classic “cold air damming” pattern for the northeastern part of the nation. This kind of an atmospheric setup is setting the stage for mixed precipitation today and an icy buildup later tonight for many in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will likely be an impact on the Friday AM commute.
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The passage of a cold front will bring about big changes in temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic region with today’s 60’s plunging to the freezing mark by early tomorrow. This influx of cold, dense air in the overnight hours will set the stage for a wintry mess from later tomorrow into early Friday. Some parts of the Mid-Atlantic will experience accumulating snow at the onset of this winter weather event and other areas will likely end up with a significant ice buildup including across much of southern and central Pennsylvania. The Friday AM commute is likely to an icy mess from the suburbs of Philly to the north and east including in and around the NYC metro region.
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Today will be another mild day in the Mid-Atlantic region with periods of rain as low pressure pushes from the Upper Midwest towards the southeastern part of Canada. The current mild stretch will peak on Wednesday afternoon with the breakout of sunshine after a cloudy start and temperatures are quite likely going to reach 65-70 degrees in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The passage of a cold front later tomorrow will then bring about big changes in the temperature department in the overnight hours setting the stage for a winter weather event from later Thursday into early Friday. The winter weather event could include some snow accumulations; primarily, across the northern Mid-Atlantic and a potential significant buildup of ice in places like southern and central Pennsylvania.
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It’ll be quite mild in the Mid-Atlantic region through mid-week, but then it turns much colder on Thursday and that cool down could be accompanied by some icing in much of the area. Temperatures today should make it into the 50’s and they’ll remain on the mild side on Tuesday, but it’ll become quite wet as well with a decent rainfall on the way from later tomorrow into tomorrow night. The warmest day of the week is likely to be on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front with temperatures likely to climb well up in the 60’s, but then big temperatures changes will take place by Thursday. Looking beyond the possible ice event later Thursday, numerous signs point to a continuation of winter weather conditions in the eastern states as we wind down the month of February and then flip over to March. In fact, there is a good chance for a very cold air mass to arrive in the east by early next week and it could be preceded by some snowfall.
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There will be very active weather from later tonight into early Friday in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US associated with the approach and passage of a strong cold frontal system. Temperatures are surging today ahead of the strong cold front and showers will become numerous from later tonight into early Friday and there can be a strong thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture. Of more concern, however, is the likelihood for powerful winds and there can be potentially damaging wind gusts; especially, in the time period surrounding the arrival and passage of the strong cold front. In the hour or so immediately behind the frontal passage, the pressure will spike, winds will shift in direction, and gusts can reach their highest levels. Temperatures will drop through the day on Friday after early day highs and the winds will die down tomorrow night. A reinforcing shot of cold arrives on Saturday and it will be supported by a very strong upper-level disturbance resulting in scattered snow showers/squalls and wind gusts past 40 mph.
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The powerful winds of late Thursday night and early Friday will diminish on Friday night; however, the next strong system will produce 50+ mph wind gusts on Saturday in the northeastern quadrant of the nation and there can be snow showers and even heavier snow squalls. After that, there are signs for a big time warm up in the eastern states in the Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday time period with temperatures likely to climb into the 50’s and 60’s. There are also signs, however, that next week’s warm up will be a temporary break from winter weather and that there will be a resurgence of winter weather as we get to late next week and beyond. In fact, an evolving stratospheric warming event and the trending pattern of Pacific Ocean teleconnection indices suggest that winter’s wrath could hang around well into the month of March across the eastern states with additional cold air outbreaks and multiple new snow threats.
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It looks like there will be a very active frontal passage in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later tomorrow night into early Friday. Temperatures will surge on Thursday ahead of the strong cold front and showers will become numerous on Thursday night. In fact, some of the rain can briefly fall on the heavy side later tomorrow night into early Friday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture.
Of more concern, however, is the likelihood for powerful winds and there can be potentially damaging wind gusts with scattered power outages certainly on the table. The likely time period of greatest concern will be in the hour or two immediately following the passage of the surface cold front associated with an expected surge in pressure and a shift in wind direction. The likely location of greatest concern for these possible damaging wind gusts will be along coastal sections from Virginia-to-Maine. Moderately chilly air will follow the early Friday frontal passage and then a reinforcing shot of cold arrives on Saturday supported by a strong wave aloft that can result in snow shower activity across the northeastern states.
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