The hottest weather of the spring so far is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic region with Friday, Saturday and Sunday promising to be noticeably different than what we’ve experienced in recent days. The transition to this uncomfortable weather pattern will actually begin later tonight with the arrival of low pressure and its associated warm front and there can be downpours in the Mid-Atlantic region along with embedded thunderstorms. Following the passage of the warm front, it’ll turn noticeably warmer and more humid later Thursday and the warm up will intensify on Friday and likely peak on Saturday afternoon with temperatures well up in the 90’s in many locations. A cool front closes in on the eastern seaboard late in the weekend bringing with it a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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There are still cold air outbreaks destined to push into the US from Canada as we progress through the second half of May and even accumulating snow for the Rockies, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have a threat of a hurricane. In fact, there are signs that the atmosphere will become supportive of a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico region later this month or early in June in what is likely to be an active season for the Atlantic Basin.
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There is a severe thunderstorm threat in the Mid-Atlantic region for this afternoon and evening as a combination of ingredients will come together including the arrival of a strong cold front, high humidity and a vigorous disturbance in the upper atmosphere. The threat of severe weather includes the possibility of damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes from mid-day into the evening. Following the passage of the strong cold front, a much different air mass will push into the Mid-Atlantic for Tuesday and Wednesday with noticeably lower humidity and comfortable temperatures.
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A soaking rain event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday and Saturday and it’ll become quite cool and windy as well. Intensifying low pressure will cross over the Ohio Valley on Friday and then as it arrives the eastern US, it will begin to become influenced by building high pressure over southeastern Canada. As such, the low pressure will slow down in its advance to the east and ultimately will stall-out over the western Atlantic. The “blocking” type pattern that sets up in the upper atmosphere could prolong the chilly, damp weather into Sunday, Mother’s Day; especially, along coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic. Later next week, the strong block will likely result in a retrogression of the stalled-out low pressure system and it likely moves from east-to-west and back to the east coast perhaps classified as a “sub-tropical” system.
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An active weather pattern continues across the nation and the overall situation in the upper part of the atmosphere will take on a different twist later this weekend and next week. One of the reasons this pattern has been so active has been an on-going onslaught of colder-than-normal air masses from Canada into the US which adds to the possibility of severe weather outbreaks. One area of concern later today and tonight for the possibility of severe weather is the southern Plains with a focus of attention on Oklahoma and northern Texas. This “enhanced” severe weather threat will shift slightly to the east on Thursday. Looking ahead, very strong high pressure ridging will develop over southeastern Canada later this weekend and into next week and this setup could actually help to push an offshore stalled-out low pressure system back towards the west and to the east coast sometime later next week.
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Temperatures could surge to 80 degrees this Sunday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, but as has been the case for much of the spring, this next warm up will not necessarily stick around for an extended period. In fact, signs point to another shot of cold air for the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week and teleconnection indices suggest we may have to deal with unusually chilly air masses right into the first part of May with overnight lows in the 30’s.
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A late season coastal storm will bring heavy rain to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later today through tonight, strong winds and potential flooding to coastal sections and accumulating to snow to interior, higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. In fact, it is not out of the question that some of the northern and western suburbs of the big cities along I-95 see ice pellets or even snow mixed in at times during this unfolding coast storm. An unusually chilly air mass is in place across the northeastern part of the nation, jet streaks will form at multiple levels of the atmosphere, and a vigorous disturbance aloft will all contribute to the formation of a significant storm that will have a variety of impacts over the northeastern quadrant of the nation. Cold air outbreaks from Canada into the central and eastern states have continued unabated in recent weeks and it looks like they will continue into late April and likely the early part of May.
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Temperatures soared into the 80’s on Wednesday in much of the Mid-Atlantic and in many spots this was the first reading this season at those levels. A repeat performance is in store for today with afternoon highs again likely to be in the 80’s across much of the region, but this time, showers and strong thunderstorms will accompany the warmth. A cold front is sliding this was from the Ohio Valley and an even stronger cold front will arrive late Saturday with more showers and possible thunderstorms. That mid-weekend frontal passage will usher in a colder air mass for Sunday and much of next week will be on the cool side across the northern US. A coastal storm will form early next week and it is likely to result in accumulating snow for the interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.
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It’s time once again to “Play Ball”…at least the openers are on the schedule for many cities on Thursday and an additional bunch of locations on Friday. The weather is not being very cooperative, however, and there have actually already been a couple of postponements for games originally scheduled for Thursday afternoon. An active weather pattern across the nation will bring about numerous showers and cool conditions on Thursday, Thursday night and Friday in the northeastern quadrant of the nation, winds will remain quite strong in much of the nation’s mid-section, and excessive heat will be a factor for baseball being played in southern California. Looking ahead, there appears to be a flip in the temperature pattern coming to the nation next week with warmer weather on the way for the eastern states and colder conditions in the western US.
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An active weather pattern will result in plenty of rain for the Mid-Atlantic region during the next few days with a soaker tonight and then additional rain later on Thursday. After that, it doesn’t exactly clear out as a deep upper-level trough of low pressure will set up shop over the northeastern part of the nation for Friday and Saturday bringing us cool, unsettled weather will additional showers possible.
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