An active weather pattern continues across the nation with multiple upper-level disturbances moving along in a west-to-east fashion and this is resulting in numerous rain threats for the Mid-Atlantic region. One such upper-level disturbance will help set off the formation of a low pressure system today over the Upper Midwest and this system will intensify later tonight over the Mid-Atlantic region enhancing the chance here for some heavy rainfall, flash-flooding, and potentially strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity.
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The tropical season in the Atlantic Basin officially got underway on June 1st and there is a growing threat for Florida from a system now located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. An area of showers and thunderstorms has better organized over the last 24 hours or so over the northwest Caribbean as atmospheric conditions are becoming more and more favorable for intensification. This system is likely to become the first named storm of the 2022 season (would be “Alex”) and is increasingly likely to bring heavy rainfall to western Cuba, central and southern Florida including the Keys, and to the Bahama Island chain.
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The passage of a back door cool front has brought relief today to the New York City metro region, New Jersey and it’ll turn out to be a bit better in the Philly area as well as easterly low-level winds have developed during the past few hours. Unfortunately, there will be no relief today in the DC metro region with highs likely to again be in the 90’s. This weak frontal boundary zone and another front will cause unsettled weather in the Mid-Atlantic from later today through tomorrow night that will include the chance for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. High pressure will take back control at the end of the week and the weekend is shaping up to be quite nice across the region.
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Hot weather dominated the scene today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and one of the ways to get relief is from a “conventional” cool frontal system that passes from west-to-east. However, long-time residents of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US know that one other way to get a break in the heat is for a back door cool front to slide from northwest-to-southwest which can produce dramatic temperature changes in a short period of time. That is exactly what happened today in Boston with a temperature drop of nearly 20 degrees in about 10 minutes and a big change is in store on Wednesday for New York City and New Jersey.
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The combination of an increasingly humid air mass, strong surface frontal system and a vigorous mid-level low will help generate numerous showers on Friday and Friday night in the Mid-Atlantic region and possible severe thunderstorms. In fact, there may be two bands of thunderstorms to closely monitor during this event- one during the mid-day/early afternoon hours and a second during the late evening associated with the frontal passage. The main severe weather parameter threats will be damaging wind gusts, “flash-flooding” downpours, and isolated tornadoes are even possible. The upper-level low will be rather slow-moving from west-to-east and this is likely to result in an unsettled weather day on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region with scattered showers and strong thunderstorms. The upper-level will exit off the coast on Sunday resulting in improvement to end the weekend and the weather on Monday, Memorial Day, should feature plenty of sunshine, very warm conditions and highs well up in the 80’s.
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A strong frontal system will produce another round of showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and some of the storms can be on the strong-to-severe side. The upper-level support for this system will be slow-moving and could result in some residual shower activity on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region as it drifts overhead. This upper-level low will exit off the coast on Sunday resulting in improvement and then the weather on Monday, Memorial Day, should feature plenty of sunshine and highs in the 80’s.
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The hottest weather of the spring so far is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic region with Friday, Saturday and Sunday promising to be noticeably different than what we’ve experienced in recent days. The transition to this uncomfortable weather pattern will actually begin later tonight with the arrival of low pressure and its associated warm front and there can be downpours in the Mid-Atlantic region along with embedded thunderstorms. Following the passage of the warm front, it’ll turn noticeably warmer and more humid later Thursday and the warm up will intensify on Friday and likely peak on Saturday afternoon with temperatures well up in the 90’s in many locations. A cool front closes in on the eastern seaboard late in the weekend bringing with it a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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There are still cold air outbreaks destined to push into the US from Canada as we progress through the second half of May and even accumulating snow for the Rockies, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have a threat of a hurricane. In fact, there are signs that the atmosphere will become supportive of a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico region later this month or early in June in what is likely to be an active season for the Atlantic Basin.
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There is a severe thunderstorm threat in the Mid-Atlantic region for this afternoon and evening as a combination of ingredients will come together including the arrival of a strong cold front, high humidity and a vigorous disturbance in the upper atmosphere. The threat of severe weather includes the possibility of damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes from mid-day into the evening. Following the passage of the strong cold front, a much different air mass will push into the Mid-Atlantic for Tuesday and Wednesday with noticeably lower humidity and comfortable temperatures.
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A soaking rain event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region for Friday and Saturday and it’ll become quite cool and windy as well. Intensifying low pressure will cross over the Ohio Valley on Friday and then as it arrives the eastern US, it will begin to become influenced by building high pressure over southeastern Canada. As such, the low pressure will slow down in its advance to the east and ultimately will stall-out over the western Atlantic. The “blocking” type pattern that sets up in the upper atmosphere could prolong the chilly, damp weather into Sunday, Mother’s Day; especially, along coastal sections of the Mid-Atlantic. Later next week, the strong block will likely result in a retrogression of the stalled-out low pressure system and it likely moves from east-to-west and back to the east coast perhaps classified as a “sub-tropical” system.
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