Today has been an active weather day in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be more shower and thunderstorm activity later in the week with the arrival of the next cold front. The timing of the next cold front could turn out to be perfect as it likely clears the way for a very nice June weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with very comfortable temperatures for this time of year. Looking ahead, an intense heat wave is likely to develop during the first half of next week from the nation’s mid-section to the southeastern states and some of this heat may expand to the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week.
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Highs temperatures on Friday are likely to reach 100 degrees in Dallas, Texas and this could begin an impressive string of days at or above the century mark in that particular location. High pressure ridging has been quite strong recently in the region from California-to-Texas and it will intensify over the next few days and then build eastward next week all the way to the Southeast US coastline. It is not unprecedented to see this kind of June heat in Texas or other parts of the southern states and Dallas will have a tough time matching the sustained and extreme heat of the summer of 1980.
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An active weather pattern continues across the nation with multiple upper-level disturbances moving along in a west-to-east fashion and this is resulting in numerous rain threats for the Mid-Atlantic region. One such upper-level disturbance will help set off the formation of a low pressure system today over the Upper Midwest and this system will intensify later tonight over the Mid-Atlantic region enhancing the chance here for some heavy rainfall, flash-flooding, and potentially strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity.
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The tropical season in the Atlantic Basin officially got underway on June 1st and there is a growing threat for Florida from a system now located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. An area of showers and thunderstorms has better organized over the last 24 hours or so over the northwest Caribbean as atmospheric conditions are becoming more and more favorable for intensification. This system is likely to become the first named storm of the 2022 season (would be “Alex”) and is increasingly likely to bring heavy rainfall to western Cuba, central and southern Florida including the Keys, and to the Bahama Island chain.
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The passage of a back door cool front has brought relief today to the New York City metro region, New Jersey and it’ll turn out to be a bit better in the Philly area as well as easterly low-level winds have developed during the past few hours. Unfortunately, there will be no relief today in the DC metro region with highs likely to again be in the 90’s. This weak frontal boundary zone and another front will cause unsettled weather in the Mid-Atlantic from later today through tomorrow night that will include the chance for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. High pressure will take back control at the end of the week and the weekend is shaping up to be quite nice across the region.
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Hot weather dominated the scene today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and one of the ways to get relief is from a “conventional” cool frontal system that passes from west-to-east. However, long-time residents of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US know that one other way to get a break in the heat is for a back door cool front to slide from northwest-to-southwest which can produce dramatic temperature changes in a short period of time. That is exactly what happened today in Boston with a temperature drop of nearly 20 degrees in about 10 minutes and a big change is in store on Wednesday for New York City and New Jersey.
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The combination of an increasingly humid air mass, strong surface frontal system and a vigorous mid-level low will help generate numerous showers on Friday and Friday night in the Mid-Atlantic region and possible severe thunderstorms. In fact, there may be two bands of thunderstorms to closely monitor during this event- one during the mid-day/early afternoon hours and a second during the late evening associated with the frontal passage. The main severe weather parameter threats will be damaging wind gusts, “flash-flooding” downpours, and isolated tornadoes are even possible. The upper-level low will be rather slow-moving from west-to-east and this is likely to result in an unsettled weather day on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region with scattered showers and strong thunderstorms. The upper-level will exit off the coast on Sunday resulting in improvement to end the weekend and the weather on Monday, Memorial Day, should feature plenty of sunshine, very warm conditions and highs well up in the 80’s.
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A strong frontal system will produce another round of showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and some of the storms can be on the strong-to-severe side. The upper-level support for this system will be slow-moving and could result in some residual shower activity on Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic region as it drifts overhead. This upper-level low will exit off the coast on Sunday resulting in improvement and then the weather on Monday, Memorial Day, should feature plenty of sunshine and highs in the 80’s.
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The hottest weather of the spring so far is on the way for the Mid-Atlantic region with Friday, Saturday and Sunday promising to be noticeably different than what we’ve experienced in recent days. The transition to this uncomfortable weather pattern will actually begin later tonight with the arrival of low pressure and its associated warm front and there can be downpours in the Mid-Atlantic region along with embedded thunderstorms. Following the passage of the warm front, it’ll turn noticeably warmer and more humid later Thursday and the warm up will intensify on Friday and likely peak on Saturday afternoon with temperatures well up in the 90’s in many locations. A cool front closes in on the eastern seaboard late in the weekend bringing with it a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms.
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There are still cold air outbreaks destined to push into the US from Canada as we progress through the second half of May and even accumulating snow for the Rockies, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have a threat of a hurricane. In fact, there are signs that the atmosphere will become supportive of a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico region later this month or early in June in what is likely to be an active season for the Atlantic Basin.
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