It has been quite dry in recent weeks across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and this spell has changed in a big-time way during the last 24 hours with significant rainfall. The combination of a slow-moving frontal system and low pressure has resulted in as much as 8+ inches of rain in some spots and much the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston has been impacted. At mid-day, the heaviest of the rain is falling along coastal sections from New Jersey to southern New England, but flooding issues remain at inland locations. Residual showers are likely from later today into Wednesday and then nice weather is in store for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
On the tropical scene, “Earl” is a strong tropical storm over the western Atlantic and moving slowly to the north. It will likely intensify into a hurricane over the next 24 hours or so - perhaps even a “major” - as it gradually turns to the northeast and likely avoiding any direct impact on the east coast. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific features Hurricane “Kay” which could very well throw some moisture into southern California by the end of the week.
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It has been quite dry in recent weeks across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and some rain would be a welcome break in this pattern. A strong cool front will indeed bring some rain to the area later today and tonight and some of the thunderstorms that develop can be on the strong-to-severe side with brief downpours and gusty winds. The cool front clears the coast by morning and tomorrow will become quite breezy and noticeably less humid than the steamy conditions of both today and yesterday. The nice weather will continue on Thursday and Friday as strong high pressure builds into the northeastern states during the latter part of the week.
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The tropics have come alive and there are multiple systems to monitor in coming days across the Atlantic Basin. This significant uptick in tropical activity follows a very quiet stretch during July and much of August, but the overall pattern is now more favorable for development and intensification as we get ready to cross into the month of September. The climatological peak of the tropical season in the Atlantic Basin is around the 10th of September at which time sea surface temperatures tend to reach their annual peaks.
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We have now passed the mid-point of the month of August and, so far, tropical activity has been considerably below-normal in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, activity across the northern hemisphere as a whole has been below-normal as measured by a metric known as the “accumulated cyclone energy” or ACE. There are signs, however, that the lid is about to come off in the Atlantic Basin where a big-time increase in activity is increasingly likely over the next few weeks and beginning as early as this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico.
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The Desert Southwest has been anything but “desert-like” in recent weeks with copious amounts of rainfall associated with the annual monsoon season in the states of Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Colorado. Monsoons are well known in eastern Asia, but they also occur in other parts of the world including right here in the southwestern US. The typical time for the monsoon season in this country is from about mid-June to the end of September and it certainly got off to a quick start this year. In addition to monsoonal-aided rainfall, there will soon be an influx of tropical moisture that will contribute to additional heavy rainfall across the Southwest US and flash flooding is a serious concern.
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The Mid-Atlantic region is again suffering with high heat and humidity and temperatures are well up in the 90’s, but much relief is on the way for the end of the week and the upcoming weekend. The current air mass in the Mid-Atlantic region had its origins over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the air mass headed our way for the late week and weekend will have its roots over northern Canada. Unfortunately, the transition from today’s high heat and humidity to the late week refreshing air mass will feature some shower and thunderstorm activity and some of that rainfall will be heavy at times with flash flooding on the table in some spots; especially, across Maryland, Virginia and the DC metro region.
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The week started off with below-normal temperatures in much of the Mid-Atlantic region thanks to plenty of cloud cover and a light low-level easterly breeze. As is often the case this time of year, the break in the heat will be rather short-lived. High pressure pushes off the east coast at mid-week and the peak in this week’s heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic region may come on Thursday after persistent southwesterly flow develops on the backside of the high. After that, the potential exists for some heavy rainfall from Thursday night into the upcoming weekend as a frontal system stalls in the region with weak wind flow aloft and a very moist overall environment.
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There have been many frontal passages in recent weeks across the Mid-Atlantic region that have produced showers and thunderstorms and, in some cases, severe weather. While these showers and thunderstorms have often been quite “numerous” to the south of the PA/MD border, they have usually been “isolated-to-scattered” across Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York City. These “hit or miss” variety showers and thunderstorms are frustrating many residents to the north of the PA/MD border with lawns now beginning to turn brown in many areas. There will be additional chances of showers and thunderstorms in coming days, but still no guarantees; especially, to those north of the Mason-Dixon Line.
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The first extended heat wave of the summer in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US will break today with the arrival of a frontal system that is currently producing showers and embedded thunderstorms in upstate Pennsylvania. The chance of showers will increase in the I-95 corridor by the early-to-mid afternoon and while not every location will get hit, a strong-to-severe thunderstorm is possible right into the late evening hours. Much more comfortable conditions will take place on Tuesday with below-normal temperatures and another cooler-than-normal air mass is destined to come this way for the upcoming weekend. The past weekend featured some excessive heat in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with a run to the 100 degree mark on both days.
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The Mid-Atlantic region has enjoyed a relatively normal summer so far with respect to overall temperatures featuring close-to-normal readings in the month of June and also for the first few weeks of July. We are now, however, in an extended stretch of hot and humid weather that will last right through the upcoming weekend and it looks like the heat will peak this weekend. In fact, high temperatures on Sunday afternoon could flirt with the 100 degree mark in some spots ahead of a cool front that should bring some relief by Tuesday and Wednesday.
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