We have reached the mid-point of September and this is climatologically-speaking right around the peak time of the Atlantic Basin tropical season. True to form, there is a now a tropical storm named “Fiona” over the central Atlantic and it is likely to impact the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later this weekend. Beyond that, it is somewhat unclear as to where Fiona will travel with one scenario featuring a continued movement to the west and towards the Gulf of Mexico and a second possibility with a “curvature to the north” over the Bahamas and then the western Atlantic off the eastern seaboard.
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The combination of a vigorous upper-level trough of low pressure and an approaching cold front is setting off the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic region and some of these can result in heavy rainfall from this afternoon into later tonight. The showers and storms can reach the DC and Philly metro regions anytime after 2 pm and then during the late afternoon hours in the NYC metro region and the threat in all places will continue into late evening. The front pushes through the region later tomorrow setting the stage for some nice weather on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
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Hurricane Kay has been downgraded to tropical storm status in the overnight hours as it moves roughly parallel to the northwestern coast of Baja California and it will push farther away and continue to weaken over the next 24 hours. However, despite the weakening and the push away from the coast, Tropical Storm Kay will combine with strong high pressure to the north to generate some significant rain and wind across southern California today, tonight and tomorrow. In fact, bands of rain can produce as much as 6 inches in some spots with flash flooding and wind gusts across southern California can reach 60+ mph during this event.
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It has been quite dry in recent weeks across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and this spell has changed in a big-time way during the last 24 hours with significant rainfall. The combination of a slow-moving frontal system and low pressure has resulted in as much as 8+ inches of rain in some spots and much the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston has been impacted. At mid-day, the heaviest of the rain is falling along coastal sections from New Jersey to southern New England, but flooding issues remain at inland locations. Residual showers are likely from later today into Wednesday and then nice weather is in store for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
On the tropical scene, “Earl” is a strong tropical storm over the western Atlantic and moving slowly to the north. It will likely intensify into a hurricane over the next 24 hours or so - perhaps even a “major” - as it gradually turns to the northeast and likely avoiding any direct impact on the east coast. Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific features Hurricane “Kay” which could very well throw some moisture into southern California by the end of the week.
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It has been quite dry in recent weeks across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and some rain would be a welcome break in this pattern. A strong cool front will indeed bring some rain to the area later today and tonight and some of the thunderstorms that develop can be on the strong-to-severe side with brief downpours and gusty winds. The cool front clears the coast by morning and tomorrow will become quite breezy and noticeably less humid than the steamy conditions of both today and yesterday. The nice weather will continue on Thursday and Friday as strong high pressure builds into the northeastern states during the latter part of the week.
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The tropics have come alive and there are multiple systems to monitor in coming days across the Atlantic Basin. This significant uptick in tropical activity follows a very quiet stretch during July and much of August, but the overall pattern is now more favorable for development and intensification as we get ready to cross into the month of September. The climatological peak of the tropical season in the Atlantic Basin is around the 10th of September at which time sea surface temperatures tend to reach their annual peaks.
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We have now passed the mid-point of the month of August and, so far, tropical activity has been considerably below-normal in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, activity across the northern hemisphere as a whole has been below-normal as measured by a metric known as the “accumulated cyclone energy” or ACE. There are signs, however, that the lid is about to come off in the Atlantic Basin where a big-time increase in activity is increasingly likely over the next few weeks and beginning as early as this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico.
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The Desert Southwest has been anything but “desert-like” in recent weeks with copious amounts of rainfall associated with the annual monsoon season in the states of Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and Colorado. Monsoons are well known in eastern Asia, but they also occur in other parts of the world including right here in the southwestern US. The typical time for the monsoon season in this country is from about mid-June to the end of September and it certainly got off to a quick start this year. In addition to monsoonal-aided rainfall, there will soon be an influx of tropical moisture that will contribute to additional heavy rainfall across the Southwest US and flash flooding is a serious concern.
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The Mid-Atlantic region is again suffering with high heat and humidity and temperatures are well up in the 90’s, but much relief is on the way for the end of the week and the upcoming weekend. The current air mass in the Mid-Atlantic region had its origins over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the air mass headed our way for the late week and weekend will have its roots over northern Canada. Unfortunately, the transition from today’s high heat and humidity to the late week refreshing air mass will feature some shower and thunderstorm activity and some of that rainfall will be heavy at times with flash flooding on the table in some spots; especially, across Maryland, Virginia and the DC metro region.
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The week started off with below-normal temperatures in much of the Mid-Atlantic region thanks to plenty of cloud cover and a light low-level easterly breeze. As is often the case this time of year, the break in the heat will be rather short-lived. High pressure pushes off the east coast at mid-week and the peak in this week’s heat and humidity in the Mid-Atlantic region may come on Thursday after persistent southwesterly flow develops on the backside of the high. After that, the potential exists for some heavy rainfall from Thursday night into the upcoming weekend as a frontal system stalls in the region with weak wind flow aloft and a very moist overall environment.
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