Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season and there is the likelihood for another outbreak on Friday night centered on the Mississippi Valley region. In much the same manner as at the end of the last week, the atmosphere will become very unstable by Friday night in the Mississippi Valley region with a multitude of ingredients coming together including vigorous upper-level support, an intrusion of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a strong surface cold front, and an influx of cold, dry air from the north and west behind it. A similar weather pattern late last week resulted in an outbreak of tornadoes across Mississippi and Alabama that tragically resulted in the death of at least 26 people. The powerful cold front that will play a major role in the severe weather outbreak on Friday night will plow eastward through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and into the eastern states possibly resulting in damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph in those sections of the country.
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Tornadoes are running at above-normal levels across the nation so far this season and there is the potential for another severe weather outbreak at the end of this week. In much the same manner as at the end of the last week, the atmosphere will become very unstable by Friday night in the Mississippi Valley region with a multitude of ingredients coming together including vigorous upper-level support, an intrusion of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico, and an influx of cold, dry air from the north and west. A similar weather pattern late last week resulted in an outbreak of tornadoes across Mississippi and Alabama that tragically resulted in the death of at least 26 people. The powerful cold front that will play a major role in the late week severe weather threat in the Mississippi Valley will plow through the Ohio Valley and into the eastern states on Saturday possibly resulting in damaging wind gusts of 50-60 mph in those sections of the country.
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Major League Baseball’s Opening Day for all thirty teams is this Thursday, March 30th and it looks like it may be quite chilly in two parts of the nation with below-normal temperatures for several games. One region that is likely to feature colder-than-normal conditions is the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic following the passage of a mid-week cold frontal system and a second region is the western US where it has been quite chilly for weeks compared to normal. In the Northeast US/Mid-Atlantic region, home openers include the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and the Washington Nationals. California will host three opening games on Thursday in Oakland, Los Angeles and San Diego and temperatures are likely to be below-normal all the way down to the Mexican border. This will be an interesting year for big league baseball as there will be major changes to the game including the restriction of the defensive shift, bigger bases, and – for the first time ever – the usage of a time clock.
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We are now a few days into spring season and the active weather pattern that lasted through much of the winter across the nation looks like it can continue well into the month of April. California was pounded by yet another storm on Wednesday that the state brought heavy rain, significant snow, and even a rare tornado to the Los Angeles metro region. Some severe weather is possible later Thursday across Texas and Oklahoma, but it is even more likely from later Friday into Friday night across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, in the colder climate of the northern US, there can be accumulating snow this weekend in the Upper Midwest and then upstate New York/northern New England. And finally, while still in the speculation phase, this active weather pattern may result in strong new storms near both coasts by the middle of next week.
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Spring has officially sprung and there is some quite mild weather expected during the next couple of days in much of the eastern half of the nation. There are signs, however, that point to additional cold air outbreaks into at least the first week of April from the Northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. The overall weather pattern across North America still features some high-latitude blocking over northern Canada and Greenland and this, in turn, is allowing for the transport of colder-than-normal air masses on occasion into the northern US from Canada. One of the consequences of additional cold air outbreaks is the high likelihood for additional accumulating snow events across the northern states and also the threat for severe weather outbreaks in the southern US. This pattern of normal to below-normal temperatures has been pretty commonplace during the last ten years in the months of March and April in the region from the Northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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It was thirty years ago that the so-called “Storm of the Century” pounded the eastern US all the way from Florida to Maine after what was a relatively quiet winter season of 1992-1993. In much the same manner, this winter season has been relatively quiet as well in much of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US in terms of cold and snow. However, as was the case thirty years ago, it looks like there will be a late winter March storm that years from now could make this relatively mild winter much more of a memorable season…at least for many of those in the Northeast US.
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The overall weather pattern will remain quite active across the nation during the next couple of weeks with most sections experiencing colder-than-normal conditions. In the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, there may be as many as three storms during the next week or so presenting chances of rain and snow. The first threat of rain and snow will come from Friday into Saturday, the second system from late Sunday into Tuesday and this could turn into a monster storm for the NE US, and the potential exists for a third storm around the end of next week. In all cases, the most favored areas for accumulating snow will be the usual interior, higher elevation locations, but even the I-95 corridor can get some accumulating snow; especially, to the north and west of the big cities. One interesting aspect about the first storm, it will likely feature an inverted trough extending from the low pressure center over the western Atlantic to the Mid-Atlantic coastline early Saturday and will undergo rapid intensification…both of which can lead to a last minute burst of heavier snow in such places as eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
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The overall weather pattern will remain active during the next several days in the Mid-Atlantic region with two upcoming chances of rain and snow. The first threat of rain and snow will come from Friday into Saturday and there will likely be a second chance from Sunday night into Monday. In both cases, the more favored areas for snow will the interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic; however, even parts of the I-95 corridor can see some accumulating snow. Both systems have to be closely monitored in coming days as, for example, rapid intensification and an “inverted trough” early Saturday morning can result in some last minute surprises.
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The overall weather pattern will remain quite active during the next several days with storm threats possible in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US both at week’s end and again early next week. The overall weather pattern is also turning colder due in large part to significant high-latitude blocking that has developed over northern Canada/Greenland in response to recent stratospheric warming and to the likely upcoming disappearance of a stubborn ridge over the southern US.
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The overall weather pattern will remain quite active in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next several days with one quick-moving system late tonight and there can be additional threats both early this weekend and early next week. This initial system can generate snow or rain changing to snow from late tonight into early Tuesday across portions of upstate Pennsylvania and western New Jersey and some higher-elevation spots can receive as much as 3-6 inches by daybreak. The overall weather pattern is turning colder due in large part to significant high-latitude blocking that has developed over northern Canada/Greenland and to a disappearing stubborn ridge over the southern US.
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