Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms rocked the Mid-Atlantic region last Monday and a somewhat similar overall weather pattern can bring a repeat performance from late today into Tuesday. In a situation like a week ago, several ingredients will come together in the atmosphere that will raise the chance for heavy downpours and severe thunderstorms which can produce damaging wind gusts, hail and even isolated tornadoes. These ingredients include a vigorous upper-level low that is currently pushing eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley, copious amounts of available moisture, strong jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, and a strong surface cool front that ultimately crosses the Mid-Atlantic region late Tuesday. The time period for the potential heavy downpours and severe thunderstorms will be from late today into Tuesday night.
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A widespread severe wind event rocked the Mid-Atlantic region this past Monday and a key ingredient was a vigorous wave of low pressure aloft that crossed the Great Lakes on a path towards the northern Mid-Atlantic. Other ingredients included multiple jet streaks in the atmosphere, a strong surface cool front, and an influx of very moist air from the southeastern states on the front side of the front. A similar overall weather pattern may repeat itself from later Monday into Monday night. While still several days away, many of these same factors may indeed come together early next week and the result can be another round of heavy showers and strong-to-severe thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic region.
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The weather has been rather tranquil during the past few days in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US following a very active extended stretch that included numerous heavy rain and strong thunderstorm events. The calm may be just about to wind down for the northeastern quadrant of the nation. A cold front will push through the Northeast US on Friday and it is likely to increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the rain later Friday can be heavy at times and some of the storms can reach strong-to-severe levels. An even more impressive system will cross the Great Lakes from late Sunday into late Monday and it could produce another batch of heavy showers and severe thunderstorms in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US.
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It looks like the month of August will feature multiple cooler-than-normal air masses dropping into the US from Canada which continues a trend that has encompassed much of the summer season so far and impacted large areas of the country. The one areal exception to this pattern has been the Southwest US where intense upper-level ridging has resulted in persistent excessive heat during the past several weeks. These intrusions of cooler-than-normal air this summer has balanced out the excessive heat in the Southwest US leaving the nation with nearly normal temperatures as we begin the month of August.
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A big-time change is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region with much more comfortable conditions for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. The transition from the brief stint of high heat and humidity to the cooler temperatures and lower humidity will come with another round of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. A cool front drops southeast today across the eastern Great Lakes and passes through the Mid-Atlantic in the overnight hours paving the way for those big-time changes.
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The main weather story getting attention this week in the Mid-Atlantic region is the heat that is coming for much of the second half. However, perhaps even more important is the threat of more heavy downpours and possible severe thunderstorms both today and likely again later Thursday. The overall active weather pattern is continuing in this part of the nation as waves of energy continue to rotate through the base of a large-scale upper-level trough.
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The hottest weather of the summer season so far is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US for the Wednesday, Thursday and Friday time period. The hot weather can extend into Saturday, but it looks like a cool front will approach the region and a transition back to cooler conditions takes place for the second half of the upcoming weekend. The hottest day in this upcoming stretch could turn out to be on Friday when temperatures climb well up into the 90’s along much of the I-95 corridor and the DC metro can even have a flirtation with the 100 degree mark.
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There is a threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and more numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely late tonight and early Friday. Any of the showers and thunderstorms from later today into Friday morning can result in heavy downpours and localized flash flooding. A combination of ingredients will come together to destabilize the atmosphere and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase in the overnight hours. Any storm that forms for the late night/early Friday hours can be strong and heavy downpours are on the table. The frontal system involved will push through the area later tomorrow likely setting the stage for back-to-back rain-free days this weekend featuring moderately warm conditions.
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The active weather pattern experienced in the Mid-Atlantic region in recent weeks remains fully intact as we head towards the end of this week. Heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms passed through much of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor in the overnight and early morning hours and additional showers and thunderstorms are possible from later today through the day on Thursday. Any one of these showers or thunderstorms during the next 24 hours can produce heavy rainfall in what is an already well saturated part of the country. The threat of heavy rain does not end with sunset on Thursday evening. In fact, perhaps the biggest threat of additional heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region will come on Thursday night as a potent system impacts the region.
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More than ten inches of rain has fallen during the past 30-days in virtually every state from Florida-to-Maine. These excessive rainfall amounts are quite impressive considering the fact that tropical moisture has not really been involved in the overall weather pattern other than perhaps across Florida earlier in the tropical season. In fact, the heart of the Atlantic Basin tropical season lies ahead beginning typically during the month of August and continuing into October with the climatological peak right around the middle of September. There is nothing yet on the horizon for the eastern US in terms of tropical activity; however, there is a concern that should a tropical system impact this region in coming weeks, the currently very well saturated grounds could set the stage for some flooding issues.
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