After a lengthy quiet period in the Atlantic Basin with no named tropical storms, Francine was born this morning over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it is likely to threaten the Louisiana coastline on Wednesday as a hurricane. A tropical wave that has been meandering over the warm waters of the SW Gulf in recent days has now attained named tropical storm status and it is likely to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday and then head towards the Louisiana coastline for a possible landfall later in the day on Wednesday. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of flash flooding all the way from coastal sections of far northeast Mexico to southern Mississippi and an increasing likelihood of storm surge inundation.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season is just around the corner and there are now as many as five systems to monitor in coming days after a very lengthy quiet period. In fact, there has not been a newly named tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin since “Ernesto” first reached that designation on August 12th, and this is the longest such quiet stretch since the late 1960’s. With five separate tropical systems currently showing some life in the Atlantic Basin and near-term changes coming to the overall weather pattern, the absence of named tropical storms is very likely to soon come to an end.
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The month of September is now underway and there are three tropical waves to monitor in the Atlantic Basin in coming days, but none of these has yet to attain named tropical storm status. In fact, there has not been a newly named tropical storm system in the Atlantic Basin since “Ernesto” formed back on August 12th. The time period from the 13th of August until today, September 3rd, is the first such quiet stretch since 1968 without a newly named tropical system.
At the same time the tropics are showing some life after a quiet stretch here in early September, cool, crisp and dry air is dominating the scene from the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Numerous locations early this morning were quite close to their record low temperatures for the date and indeed, there were a few spots that actually set daily low temperature records.
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The month of August will likely end up with very close-to-normal temperatures in much of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US and it looks like September will get off to cool start. Indeed, a cool blast of air will push into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region later this weekend and then arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US on Monday, Labor Day following the passage of a couple of cold frontal systems. The initial cold front this weekend will likely result in numerous showers and thunderstorms later Saturday and Saturday night across the northeastern states and then a secondary cold front can produce some shower activity on Sunday and Sunday night. By Monday and Tuesday, highs will be confined to the 70’s across the Mid-Atlantic/NE US and overall humidity will be at very comfortable levels.
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A taste of fall is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region for the Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday time period following the passage of a cold front later today. That frontal system will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and some of the storms can be on the strong side. Temperatures for the next few days should peak in the 70’s for afternoon highs all along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor which is well below-normal for this time of year. Temperatures in the overnight hours will bottom in the lower 50’s in much of the I-95 corridor – coolest so far this season – and some spots could bottom out in the upper 40’s well to the northwest of the big cities.
Elsewhere, Ernesto has intensified slightly during the morning hours over the North Atlantic with latest observations showing 90 mph maximum sustained winds. This classifies Ernesto as a strong category 1 hurricane which is somewhat unusual in that it weakened to tropical storm status on Sunday after passing by the island of Bermuda. Ernesto will rush past Newfoundland later tonight and then it can very well impact Ireland/United Kingdom later in the week as an extratropical storm.
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The weekend just past in the Mid-Atlantic region was quite comfortable with plenty of sunshine on both days and the remainder of the week ahead looks quite comfortable as well for the middle of August. In fact, the rest of August may very well turn out to be quite comfortable across the Mid-Atlantic region with no signs of sustained extreme heat pretty much anywhere in the eastern half of the nation.
While the weather is quiet in the Mid-Atlantic region for much of this week, the tropical scene in the Atlantic Basin is active and it is likely to stay quite active during the remainder of August. A strong tropical wave that is currently closing in on the Leeward Islands is very likely to become a named tropical storm (Ernesto) during the next 24 hours and then it’ll impact Puerto Rico by mid-week – perhaps as a category 1 hurricane – and then likely move towards the island of Bermuda as an even stronger hurricane. A second tropical wave follows close behind and is currently located over the central tropical Atlantic and a third can be seen on satellite imagery near the west coast of Africa.
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Tropical Storm Debby made a second landfall earlier today about 25 miles to the northeast of Charleston, South Carolina and has begun the normal weakening phase as it pushes farther inland. Despite the weakening, the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby will continue to pound away today at the Carolinas with additional heavy rainfall as copious amounts of tropical moisture still feed into the system from the southwestern Atlantic. Some spots in South Carolina can end up with 25 inches of rain when all is said and done and up to 15 inches in likely in portions of North Carolina.
In the Mid-Atlantic region, outer bands have already produced occasional showers and the main impact will come from late today into Friday evening as the tropical depression passes over the front range of the Appalachians. The impact in the I-95 corridor will include occasional heavy downpours, embedded thunderstorms, strong winds, and isolated tornadoes are even on the table. Scattered power outages are also on the table given the combination of saturated grounds and wind gusts potentially up to 45 mph or so. The heaviest rainfall during this upcoming event will likely come along the front range of the Appalachians (e.g., eastern West Virginia, western Virginia, central Pennsylvania) where southeasterly winds will be “lifted” by the increasing altitude.
Looking ahead, the “soon-to-come” acceleration of the tropical system will allow for a nice weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region and the overall weather pattern looks quite nice from Saturday through the middle of next week all across the Great Lakes, Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US (and it should be favorable for the Perseid meteor shower). One final note, there are signs that there may be another tropical threat to deal with in the eastern US by around the middle of the month.
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Tropical Storm Debby is out over the very warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean and it has strengthened some today with maximum sustained winds now at 60 mph. Tropical Storm Debby will make a second landfall by early tomorrow morning and then begin a turn to the north that should bring it’s remnants just to the west of the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor on Friday afternoon. As such, there is the threat of some heavy rainfall, strong thunderstorms, gusty winds in the Mid-Atlantic region from late Thursday through Friday night and isolated tornadoes are on the table. The tropical system will accelerate to the northeast by Saturday with improving conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region and we’re setting up for a stretch of nice weather from Sunday through Tuesday all across the northeastern part of the nation.
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Tropical Storm Debby is about to move back out over the open waters of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean…just off the coast of South Carolina. This system will re-intensify some during the next 24 hours or so with a chance of getting back to category 1 hurricane status and then it’ll likely make a second landfall early Thursday in South Carolina. Whether or not Debby returns to hurricane status, there will be extreme rainfall amounts in portions of the Southeast US during the next couple of days centered on the state of South Carolina.
Farther north, much of the Mid-Atlantic region will experience very heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms from later today into early tomorrow due to a combination of tropical moisture feeding northward from Tropical Storm Debby and an incoming strong cold frontal system. The remnants of Tropical Storm Debby will finally get kicked to north late in the week with heavy rainfall and potentially even tornadoes a threat in the entire Mid-Atlantic region on Friday/Friday night.
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Debby made landfall this morning in the Big Bend region of Florida’s Gulf coast as a category 1 hurricane. While Debby has weakened to “tropical storm” status, it will likely produce tremendous rainfall amounts in portions of the Southeast US during the next few days as its northward progression is stymied by high pressure ridging building to its north. The remnants of Debby will then push off the Georgia/South Carolina coastline by mid-week and it can undergo some re-intensification over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic. In fact, there is the chance that Debby returns to category 1 hurricane status depending on its length of time over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By Wednesday night or early Thursday, Debby will likely make a second landfall perhaps over the northeastern coastline of South Carolina.
Farther north, tropical moisture associated with Debby can enhance the threat for heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region as soon as late tomorrow as it interacts with an incoming cold frontal system. Following the frontal passage on Wednesday, it turns much cooler in the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the week with afternoon highs generally confined to the 70’s in places like DC, Philly and New York City. There will also be a continuing threat of tropical rainfall later this week as the remnants of Debby finally kick out of the SE US by the end of the week and push to the north…several inches of rain are on the table in the Mid-Atlantic between now and the end of the upcoming weekend.
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