It is not all that unusual for the “last hurrah” of an Atlantic Basin tropical season to be followed by an influx of winter-like cold into the central and eastern US and, in some cases, it is a “pattern-changing” type of event. One such example of this kind of scenario unfolded with Hurricane Sandy at the end of October during 2012 which was then followed by a colder-than-normal month of November in almost all areas east of the Mississippi River. (In fact, cold air not only followed Hurricane Sandy, but actually wrapped into it with as much as 3 feet of snow piling up in portions of West Virginia during that event). It appears that this tropical season may finally wind down after the ultimate demise of the latest system now over the Caribbean Sea and cold air intrusions into the central and eastern may become much more commonplace beginning late next week. The tropical system is likely to intensify into a named tropical storm (“Sara”) in the near-term, but an extended time period over land will likely reduce its potential impact on the US Gulf coast.
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It is not all that unusual for the “last hurrah” of an Atlantic Basin tropical season to be followed by an influx of winter-like cold into the central and eastern US and, in some cases, it is a “pattern-changing” type of event. One such example of this kind of scenario unfolded with Hurricane Sandy at the end of October during 2012 which was then followed by a colder-than-normal November in most areas east of the Mississippi. (In fact, cold air actually wrapped into Hurricane Sandy with as much as 3 feet of snow in West Virginia during that event). It appears a tropical system now forming over the Caribbean Sea may cross the Yucatan Peninsula by early next week and it then can take a turn to the northeast. Hopefully, this tropical system will weaken during its encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula and before a possible northeast turn towards the state of Florida. At the same time, cold air will be charging southeastward from Canada into the central states and other very impressive-looking cold shots are destined to work their way into the central and eastern states later in the month.
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The calendar has flipped to November and the first full week of the new month will feature some wild weather across the nation. First, a severe weather outbreak is likely later today into late tonight across the nation’s mid-section and this includes the threat of tornadoes from Texas to Missouri. Second, accumulating snow is likely across the Rocky Mountain States, and it can be significant during the latter part of the week across Colorado and New Mexico. Finally, a surge of tropical activity has begun in parts of the Atlantic Basin and a tropical system now intensifying over the Caribbean Sea is likely to become a hurricane by later in the week as it heads towards the Gulf of Mexico.
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The ingredients are coming together for a severe weather outbreak later today and tonight across the middle part of the country and there can be a repeat performance early next week. In fact, next week may turn out to be quite active on a couple of fronts with severe weather a possibility across the nation’s heartland and potential tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea. Today’s severe weather outbreak does include the possibility of tornadoes across such states as Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri.
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Last winter was generally warmer-than-normal in the Mid-Atlantic region with below-normal snowfall and 2024 began with a rather strong El Nino event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, those warmer-than-normal water temperatures have since flipped to below-normal and this upcoming winter season is quite likely to feature weak La Nina (colder-than-normal) conditions. Typically, La Nina winters feature a more active polar jet stream that helps to transport cold air masses from northwestern Canada into the Northern Plains while, at the same time, much of the southern US often experiences warmer and drier conditions. La Nina winters are somewhat random in the Mid-Atlantic region with respect to temperatures and precipitation with some years featuring more snow than normal and others less.
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Since the middle of last week, two separate tropical systems attained tropical storm status adding to the year’s total number of named storms to 15 in the Atlantic Basin. Neither one of these most recent tropical storms, Nadine and Oscar, are a threat to the US mainland as the first one has already dissipated and the second is destined to push out over the open waters of the western Atlantic Ocean. There are signs, however, that tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin may be very well get boosted again as we push into the first half of November.
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October can be a dry month in the Northeast US with the usual overall cooling down of the atmosphere, but this one has been pretty ridiculous. While tropical moisture has inundated the Tennessee Valley/Appalachians and Southeast US during the past couple of weeks, nary a drop has fallen in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and there is not much reason for hope in the next week or so. Perhaps...just perhaps...there may be some decent rainfall here around the end of the month as a strong cold frontal system heads this way from central Canada.
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Last week, it was the northern lights and now - for another astronomical treat - a comet should be visible to the naked eye during the next week to ten days or so in the western sky after sunset. Comet Tsuchinshan-ATLAS has now exited the sun’s glare having come closest to the sun in late September. It made its closest approach to Earth this past Saturday, October 11th, passing about 44 million miles away. It is now rising a little bit higher each night in the western sky and remaining visible for a little bit longer period; however, it is also going to lose some its brightness with each passing day.
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Hurricane Milton is a high-end category 4 storm system as of mid-morning as it closes in on the west-central Gulf coast of Florida. Some weakening is quite likely today as Hurricane Milton encounters increased vertical wind shear over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and some dry air intrusion on its western side. However, Hurricane Milton should make landfall later tonight somewhere near Tampa Bay as a “major” hurricane with a significant storm surge expected as high as 10-15 feet in some areas. After landfall, Milton will cross the state as a hurricane and then emerge later tomorrow out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
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Hurricane Milton intensified rapidly on Monday reaching category 5 status with maximum sustained winds as high as 180 mph and a central pressure that dropped all the way down to 897 millibars (26.44 inches). There has been some weakening in the overnight hours and during the early hours of Tuesday with the latest measurements featuring maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (category 4) and the central pressure of Milton has risen more than 30 millibars since the low point on Monday of 929 millibars (27.43 inches). Hurricane Milton will gradually take a turn to the northeast during the next 12-24 hours and likely make a landfall on Wednesday night somewhere near the Tampa Bay region of Florida’s Gulf coast. After landfall, Hurricane Milton will cross the state as a hurricane and then emerge later Thursday out over the open waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
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