Very cold, dry and dense Arctic air is well established this morning in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US at the same time low pressure and its associated moisture field are now pushing to the north from the southeastern states...not a good combination. A significant ice and snow event is now unfolding for the interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas and snow will push into the Mid-Atlantic region later in the day and early tonight with front-end accumulations in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. With an influx of milder air from the ocean, a transition will take place in the I-95 corridor from snow to sleet to freezing rain and ultimately to plain rain in some areas. In addition to the wide range of precipitation types, this storm will bring high and potentially damaging winds and coastal flooding to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Looking ahead, another storm could very well threaten the same part of the country next weekend.
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An Arctic air mass poured into the northeastern quadrant of the nation in the overnight hours resulting in very cold and extremely dry conditions. At the same time, a vigorous disturbance in the upper atmosphere has pushed southeastward from the central Plains into the southern Plains. This system will edge into the Deep South by later tonight and surface low pressure will form in the northern Gulf region. On Sunday, the intensifying low pressure system will push northward through the eastern states with its expanding moisture field producing a wide range of impacts from snow-to-ice-to-rain. High (and potentially damaging) winds and coastal flooding will become an increasing concern with this storm on Sunday and impacts will last well into the day on Monday; especially, across the northeastern states.
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Many ingredients are coming together for a high impact type of storm system in the eastern third of the nation from Sunday into Monday with accumulating snow, ice, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and even high (potentially damaging) winds all on the table. The upper-level wave of energy that will be the catalyst for storm development has come ashore and it will dive to the south and east over the next couple of days. Low pressure will develop by early Sunday morning in the southeastern states and this system will then make a move to the northeast and it’ll encounter an Arctic air mass that will be quite reluctant to give up its ground. As a result, a significant snow and ice event is likely to take place across interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday morning and mid-day. After that, precipitation will push into the Mid-Atlantic region with cold, dense air in place and a period of snow and/or ice is likely in most interior sections with plain rain a likelihood along coastal areas. The DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor is in line for accumulating snow on the front-end of this storm and this can be followed by a period of icing given the expectation that the dense, cold low-level air mass will be tough to dislodge.
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A cold air mass will push into the region later today and tonight riding in on increasing northerly winds and all backed by strong Arctic high pressure building into the southeastern part of Canada. It remains very cold on Saturday and Saturday night and then attention will turn to our south for the second half of the weekend. Low pressure will develop by early Sunday morning in the southeastern states and this system will then make a move to the northeast and it’ll encounter an Arctic air mass that will be quite reluctant to give up its ground. As a result, a significant snow and ice event is likely to take place across interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday morning and mid-day. After that, moisture from this storm will push into the Mid-Atlantic region and with the cold, dense air in place, a period of snow and sleet is likely on the front-end in the NYC metro region. Early accumulation estimates are on the order of a couple of inches - perhaps 1-3 inch range - with the higher amounts to the northwest of NYC. Coastal flooding is possible with high tides Sunday night/early Monday and damaging wind gusts are possible along coastal sections of NJ.
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Many ingredients are coming together for a high impact type of storm system in the eastern third of the nation from Sunday into Monday with accumulating snow, ice, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and even high (potentially damaging) winds all on the table. The upper-level wave of energy that will be the catalyst for storm development is just now coming ashore in the Pacific Northwest and it will dive to the south and east over the next few days. Low pressure will develop by early Sunday morning in the southeastern states and this system will then make a move to the northeast and it’ll encounter an Arctic air mass that will be quite reluctant to give up its ground. As a result, a significant snow and ice event is likely to take place across interior sections of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday morning and mid-day. After that, precipitation will push into the Mid-Atlantic region with cold, dense air in place and a period of snow and/or ice is likely in most interior sections with rain a likelihood along coastal areas. The DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor is in line for accumulating snow on the front-end of this storm and this can be followed by a period of icing given the expectation that the dense, cold low-level air mass will be tough to dislodge.
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Many ingredients appear to be coming together for a storm system that can have a high impact over the eastern third of the nation from later this weekend into Monday with snow, ice, rain, coastal flooding, and even high (damaging) winds on the table. There are many details that still have to be ironed out with a few days to go before this event and the main wave of energy of interest in the upper atmosphere is just now nearing the US NW coast from the Pacific Ocean. As it stands now, the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor may receive an accumulation of snow on the front-end of this storm system. The immediate I-95 corridor region may end up being the dividing line between a substantial snowfall to the north and west and a snow-to-ice-to-rain scenario to the south and east. Looking beyond the storm, the overall weather pattern likely remains quite a bit colder-than-normal for much of the second half of the month.
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The chances are growing for a significant winter storm to impact the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US from later Sunday into Monday. In fact, many ingredients appear to be coming together for a storm system that can have a high impact over a large area of the eastern third of the nation from later Sunday into Monday with snow, ice, rain, coastal flooding, and even high (damaging) winds on the table. There are many details that still have to be ironed out with several days to go before this potential event and the main upper-level wave of energy is way out over the Pacific Ocean. The I-95 corridor may be right on or near the dividing line between substantial snowfall to the north and west and a mix of rain, ice and snow to the south and east.
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An Arctic air mass will loosen its grip on the region today and temperatures will modify after quite a cold start. In fact, temperatures should climb well up into the 30’s this afternoon and additional warming will take place on Thursday with highs likely back into the 40’s. After that, the trend in temperatures will be down once again with progressively colder conditions to return for Friday and Saturday as high pressure re-establishes across southeastern part of Canada.
Later this weekend, a vigorous wave of energy in the upper atmosphere will likely help to generate surface low pressure in the southeastern states and it could have an important impact on the Mid-Atlantic region in the “later Sunday/Monday” time frame…stay tuned on this potential significant winter storm.
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An Arctic cold front pushed through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US on Monday night and the northeastern quadrant of the nation is suffering today as a result. Temperatures are way below-normal for this time of year despite some sunshine and a stiff NW breeze is pushing wind chill values down into single digits and, in some spots, to sub-zero levels. There will be some modification in temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday, but another cold air mass will arrive from the northwest at week’s end. Looking ahead, the overall weather pattern appears to be evolving into one that could feature multiple storm threats for the eastern US in coming days. A first system looks like it’ll stay far enough off the east coast on Thursday and Friday to have little or no impact in the Mid-Atlantic region, but it still needs to be monitored and could skirt eastern New England. A second storm threat could come in the Sunday/Monday time frame and this one has a much better chance at having an significant impact in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
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The passage of a secondary cold frontal system last evening ushered in the coldest air mass in a few years for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Despite some sunshine today, temperatures will be confined to near 20 degrees for highs – way below-normal for this time of year – and a stiff breeze will produce wind chills down in the single digits. After another very cold night, temperatures will modify some on Wednesday and even more on Thursday with highs likely reaching 40+ degrees on Thursday afternoon. An “ocean” storm will form late this week in the southwestern part of the Atlantic Ocean and it will likely stay far enough off the coast to have little or no impact around here. The overall weather pattern will, however, likely produce other storm threats for us beginning later this weekend and lasting into at least the middle part of next week.
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