A potpourri of topics today ranging from another day with a strong thunderstorm threat in the Mid-Atlantic region to an active Atlantic Basin tropical scene to an update on Comet NEOWISE which is making its closest approach to Earth later tonight. First, on the weather threat in the Mid-Atlantic region, yet another wave of energy aloft will combine with considerable amounts of moisture in the low and middle levels of the atmosphere to bring another shot at strong storms later today and tonight. Second, on the tropics, an impressive tropical wave over the central Gulf of Mexico is likely headed to the east coast of Texas by the early part of the weekend and it will result in heavy rainfall in that part of the southern US. A second tropical system, Tropical Storm Gonzalo, has run into a bit of dry air which has halted its intensification in recent hours as it continues to push towards the Caribbean Sea. A third tropical wave has just emerged off the west coast of Africa and it may become an important player to monitor next week. Finally, Comet NEOWISE makes its closest approach to the Earth later tonight and it won’t be back around these parts for about 6800 years.
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Heavy rain bands are rotating around Tropical Storm Fay at this hour and extending northwestward into eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and southeastern New York. There has already been a boat load of rain over the Delmarva Peninsula with several inches in some spots and flooding has been prevalent in some Delaware beach towns such as Bethany Beach. Tropical Storm Fay will continue to push in a general northerly direction over the next several hours though it could bobble around at times in slightly different directions. The storm’s center is likely to push through New Jersey from south-to-north later today and then continue northward tonight into the Hudson Valley region of New York State.
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The main focus today is on a low pressure system over the coastal sections of North Carolina as it poses a threat for heavy rainfall on Friday in the eastern Mid-Atlantic region. This system is likely to push to the northeast during the next several hours out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic and then make a move in a more northerly direction likely reaching a position over the southern half of the Delmarva Peninsula by early tomorrow. There is a good chance that when this system moves out over the ocean later today, it’ll intensify enough to become a “named” tropical storm (would be “Fay”). Whether or not it becomes a "named" storm, it has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall on Friday in the eastern part of the Mid-Atlantic region along with quite gusty winds along coastal sections.
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to plague the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday, but today will present only a slight chance of rainfall as we have a brief break in the action. Attention now turns to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as low pressure over that region is likely to push to the northeast later today and then move in a more northerly direction reaching the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula by early tomorrow. With this expected move out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic, there is a chance for intensification and a possible "naming" of the storm by NOAA's National Hurricane Center as it potentially reaches tropical storm status (it would be "Fay"). Whether or not "naming" of the storm takes place, heavy rainfall is on the table for Friday across the Delmarva Peninsula, eastern PA, New Jersey and New York City and there can be gusty winds as well; especially, at coastal locations. This storm is also likely to generate strong rip currents in the ocean on Friday which could stick around into the weekend. The departure of this coastal storm on Saturday will not be the end of the wet weather pattern in the eastern US. An impressive upper-level trough should form by later in the weekend likely leading to more rainfall around here during the first half of next week.
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued to plague the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday, but today will present only a slight chance of rainfall as we have a brief break in the action. Attention now turns to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as low pressure over that region is likely to push to the northeast later today and then move in a more northerly direction reaching the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula by early tomorrow. With this expected move out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic, there is a chance for intensification and a possible "naming" of the storm by NOAA's National Hurricane Center as it potentially reaches tropical storm status (it would be "Fay"). Whether or not "naming" of the storm takes place, heavy rainfall is on the table for Friday across the Delmarva Peninsula, eastern PA, New Jersey and the New York City metro region and there can be gusty winds as well; especially, along coastal locations. This storm is also likely to generate strong rip currents in the ocean on Friday which could stick around into the weekend. The departure of this coastal storm on Saturday will not be the end of the wet weather pattern in the eastern US. An impressive upper-level trough should form by later in the weekend likely leading to more rainfall around here during the first half of next week.
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to plague the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-day and this threat will continue into tonight. On Thursday, attention will turn to the Outer Banks region of North Carolina as this is where low pressure is likely to be located early in the day. This system is then likely to push to the northeast out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic and then make a move northward reaching a position near the southern part of the Delmarva Peninsula by early Friday. There is a chance when this system moves over the open waters of the western Atlantic, it’ll intensify enough to become a “named” tropical storm by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. Whether or not it becomes a "named" storm (it would be “Fay”), it has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall on Friday in the eastern part of the Mid-Atlantic region along with gusty winds and strong rip currents in the western Atlantic Ocean. The departure of this coastal storm on Saturday will likely not be the end of the wet weather pattern in the eastern US. An impressive upper-level trough should form by later in the weekend likely leading to more rainfall into the first half of next week.
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A summer-like week is in store for the metro region with hot, humid conditions and multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. In fact, there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening as a weak front arrives and some of the late day/evening storms can be on the strong-to-severe side with torrential downpours. Temperatures today are likely to climb into the low-to-mid 90's for highs and it'll stay hot and uncomfortable for much of the week. Later this week, a storm will pull out of the Deep South and potentially ride up along the eastern seaboard. If so, this system would enhance chances for heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday night and Friday.
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A summer-like week is in store for the metro region with hot, humid conditions and multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. In fact, there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening as a weak front arrives and some of the late day/evening storms can be on the strong-to-severe side with torrential downpours. Temperatures today are likely to climb into the low-to-mid 90's for highs and it'll stay hot and uncomfortable for much of the week. Later this week, a storm will pull out of the Deep South and potentially ride up along the eastern seaboard. If so, this system would enhance chances for heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday night and Friday.
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A summer-like week is in store for the metro region with hot, humid conditions and multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms. In fact, there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening as a weak front arrives and some of the late day/evening storms can be on the strong-to-severe side with torrential downpours. Temperatures today are likely to climb into the low-to-mid 90's for highs and it'll stay hot and uncomfortable for much of the week. Later this week, a storm will pull out of the Deep South and potentially ride up along the eastern seaboard. If so, this system would enhance chances for heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday night and Friday.
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There are two important weather stories here at mid-week with a sudden surge of summer-like conditions into the Mid-Atlantic region and the development of a tropical storm in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The surge of summer-like heat and humidity into the Mid-Atlantic region will be accompanied by some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in some spots later today and tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The highest probability of the severe storm activity will be to the north of the PA/MD border with one shot around mid-day and then another shot from later this afternoon into tonight. This front stalls nearby on Thursday and this could result in some heavy rain bands tomorrow and tomorrow night in the Mid-Atlantic region.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Cristobal has intensified in the overnight hours, but it may very well weaken over the next couple of days as it moves inland over Mexico. However, by the end of the week, TS Cristobal is likely to move back out over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and take a turn to the north this weekend. There is a chance that Cristobal – the third tropical storm of this young tropical season – will close in on the central Gulf coastal region by the end of the weekend and all eyes should remained focused on this threat from the Panhandle of Florida to Texas.
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