May is very likely to end up cooler-than-normal in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC and it looks like the same overall pattern will continue through the middle of June. Upper-level low pressure has dominated the scene in the Northeast US during the past several weeks and there are signs that this scenario will continue for awhile longer and contribute to more cool air outbreaks and more rain events. Another contributing factor to the cooler-than-normal weather in this region is the "soil moisture" which is quite high given all the recent rainfall and this scenario shows no sign of changing significantly anytime soon.
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The ingredients are coming together for a tornado outbreak late today/early tonight across Oklahoma and Kansas with a particular focus on the central parts of both states. Snow is falling today in Denver, 90+ degrees is likely for highs from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, and the battle zone region in between these two very anomalous air masses is in the central and southern Plains. Tornadoes are not the only threat in those areas, hail is also possible later today on the order of 3-to-4 inches in diameter.
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The next few days will bring some of the warmest conditions so far this year into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor including the first 90 degree readings in some spots and possible record-breaking high temperatures. This warm spell does not, however, mark the end of the cool air outbreaks for the eastern US and there are signs for fairly sustained cooler-than-normal period as we head into the Memorial Day weekend.
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Europe had an extended period of colder-than-normal weather in April accompanied by lots of snow and now much of the US will experience an extended period of colder-than-normal weather as we transition from early-to-mid May. This cold snap could very well result in low temperature readings in the 30’s next week on multiple mornings in many suburban locations along the I-95 corridor – and that may not be the end of it as signs point to another cold shot later in the month.
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Two big weather stories going forward for the DC, Philly and New York City metro regions: (1) a heavy rain event is coming from later tomorrow night into Friday and it can be accompanied by strong thunderstorms and (2) an extended period of colder-than-normal weather from this weekend into the latter part of next week. This chilly stretch of weather could even result in accumulating snow in some of the higher elevations of the Mid-Atlantic region as well as in portions of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Strong low pressure will form tomorrow in the south-central states - aided by tremendous upper-level energy - and then push northward towards the eastern Great Lakes. Colder-than-normal air pushes in this weekend following the passage of a strong cold front and thanks to the formation of a classic “omega”-shaped blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere, it will stay colder-than-normal for several days.
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There are two big weather stories for the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC going forward over the next week-to-ten days: (1) a heavy rain event is coming that will be centered on late Thursday night and Friday and (2) an extended period of colder-than-normal weather from this coming Saturday through Thursday of next week and this overall stretch could even result in accumulating snow in some of the higher elevations of the Mid-Atlantic region. Strong low pressure will form at mid-week in the south-central US and head towards the Great Lakes region later Thursday. Rain should overspread the I-95 corridor from west-to-east late Thursday or Thursday night and continue into Friday resulting in a soaking rainfall for DC, Philly and NYC. Colder-than-normal air pushes in this weekend following the passage of a cold front and thanks to the formation of a classic “omega”-shaped blocking pattern in the upper atmosphere, it will stay colder-than-normal around here for several days.
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Much warmer air has moved into the Mid-Atlantic region and it’ll stay quite warm right through Saturday. The peak of this current warm spell will take place on Saturday afternoon when temperatures could soar to around 90 degrees for highs in parts of the I-95 corridor. A back door cold front will then drop southward through the Northeast US late Saturday night and it’ll turn noticeably cooler on Sunday in New York City, Philly and DC. After a brief warm up on Monday, it’ll turn noticeably cooler on Tuesday following the passage of a strong cold front and there are additional cool air masses coming our way as we progress through the month of May.
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This weekend will turn noticeably cooler in the Mid-Atlantic region and there will be some rain to go along with that cool down; especially, south of the PA/MD border. We’ll then stay quite cool during the first half of next week, but a significant jump in temperatures is likely to arrive in the eastern US at the end of next week or during the following weekend. In fact, this surge of heat could result in the first 90 degree readings this year for parts of the Northeast US.
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Two strong upper-level waves of energy will bring rain events to the Mid-Atlantic region between tonight and Friday and each event can feature strong or severe thunderstorms. The first wave arrives this evening and will produce rain in the overnight hours in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two. On Tuesday, the steadiest and heaviest rain will be gone, but there can be an occasional shower and perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two in the I-95 corridor as it turns noticeably windy and warmer.
The next event looks especially volatile and will feature a powerful low pressure system in the Northeast US and it'll impact the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from Thursday into Friday night. Rain is likely to be quite heavy on Thursday and Thursday night and there can be some severe thunderstorm activity in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region. On the backside of the storm, it’ll turn much cooler and very windy around here on Friday with additional rain showers likely. Accumulating snow is likely on Friday in the Ohio Valley and also in the higher elevation locations of western NY, western PA, western MD, West Virginia, and the Smoky Mountains of the Tennessee Valley. One final note, grounds are now pretty well saturated after the recent heavy rain event and this will raise concerns for localized flooding during each of the this week’s rain events.
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The next week to ten days will feature numerous strong upper-level waves of energy traveling from the eastern Pacific Ocean all way across to the northeastern US on a fairly regular basis averaging every few days or so. Today's tranquil weather in the Mid-Atlantic region will soon give way to a major rain event for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor that could result in more than two inches of rain by early Saturday in some spots. This active weather pattern will not only bring soaking rain to the Mid-Atlantic as we close out this current work week, but there will be another chance for significant rain early next week and then yet another chance late next week. In addition to the heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic, this active pattern will bring substantial springtime snowfall to interior upstate New York and New England as well as across the Colorado Rockies in the western US. Severe weather will also be a major consequence of this energetic weather pattern with numerous threats coming to the Midwest, south-central, and southeastern US.
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