One major storm is bringing heavy snowfall to parts of the Rocky Mountains and central Plains and another is about to slam into the west coast of the US. Heavy snow from the first storm continues across the Rockies and has stretched into the central Plains and it’ll make a push into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. This same system will then head eastward and drag a strong cold front across the Mid-Atlantic/NE US tomorrow evening and the winds will become quite strong with gusts past 40 mph. The second major storm will rapidly intensify before making landfall later tonight near the California/Oregon border and it will bring heavy rain and damaging winds to coastal sections and tremendous snows to inland higher elevation locations of the Sierra Nevada mountain range where the snow will be measured in feet over the next few days. This second storm will cross the nation and arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US this weekend where there will be a lot of cold air and accumulating ice and snow could be the result in interior sections.
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Two big storms will impact much of the nation this week in a week that features the busiest travel day of the year and, of course, the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The first system will bring about another “Denver-to-Minneapolis” snowstorm over the next couple of days – similar to a storm back in October. This system will then drag a cold front across the Mid-Atlantic/NE US later Wednesday and the winds will become quite strong – too strong for any balloons to be used in the Thursday parade in New York City. The second storm of note will become a powerhouse system in the hours before it makes landfall later tomorrow night near the Oregon/California border region. In fact, this Pacific Storm will intensify dramatically in the 24 hours preceding landfall – perhaps to what meteorologists call “bombogenesis” levels which requires a drop of 24 millibars in a 24-hour period. This second storm will bring damaging winds and heavy rain to coastal sections of Oregon/California and tremendous snows to inland higher elevation locations such as the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The second storm will trek all the way across the nation and likely result in ice and snow for the Mid-Atlantic/NE US during the upcoming weekend.
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A potent wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will help to form low pressure over the Tennessee Valley on Saturday morning and then it will travel to the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Sunday. Rain is likely to break out later Saturday in the I-95 corridor and continue until early Sunday at which time drier air will begin to arrive and lead to improving conditions as the weekend winds down. There will be some cold air around for the weekend system, but the best chance for snow is likely to be confined to areas far west and north of the I-95 corridor (e.g., West Virginia to western/northern PA).
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Hundreds of daily low temperature records were set this week in the eastern two-thirds of the nation and, at several sites, the all-time low temperature for the month of November was recorded. Monthly records that have been set for November are quite impressive indeed as they’ll typically take place in the last week or so of a given month during this time of year. Computer forecast models have been somewhat mixed recently in their temperature anomaly predictions for the US during the remainder of November, but it appears to me that the colder-than-normal pattern will continue right to the end of November for much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
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Dozens and dozens of daily low temperature records were set this morning in the eastern third of the nation and, in some cases, the all-time low temperature for the month of November was recorded. Monthly low temperature records are quite impressive since we haven’t even reached mid-month and most of these type of records would typically take place in the last week or so of the given month. In some spots, today’s record low isn’t the only one to take place in this cold pattern. For example, Central Park’s record low for today followed a record low set before midnight for yesterday and they broke a record on last Friday – the 3rd record low set in just the past several days.
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The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass passed through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early this morning and temperatures have fallen into the 30’s from early day highs. Precipitation is being enhanced in the cold air behind the front as a strong jet streak aloft generates upward motion in the I-95 corridor. As a result, a changeover to snow is likely during the mid-day and early afternoon hours in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this changeover to snow is likely all the way to coastal New Jersey and Delmarva. Some spots could receive small snow accumulations and as temperatures drop to near freezing later in the day, watch for the possibility of “black ice” on some roadways. Precipitation winds down later today and the cold will become the main story with record low temperatures in numerous Mid-Atlantic/NE US locations by early tomorrow. Widespread records were set earlier today from Texas to the Great Lakes with some stations recording their lowest temperature ever for the month of November and we are not even at the halfway point.
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The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass will pass through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early tomorrow morning and it will likely result in a rain-changing-to-snow weather scenario. This Arctic blast is likely to result in numerous daily record lows across the central and eastern US over the next few days and, in some cases, perhaps the lowest temperatures ever recorded for this early in the season. In addition, significant accumulating snow is likely over the next 24-36 hours from Ohio/Michigan to western New York to northern New England. Rain should arrive in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC just before daybreak and then, as colder air filters into the region, a changeover to snow for a brief time is likely not only in the immediate I-95 corridor, but ultimately all the way to the coastline. The precipitation will wind down later tomorrow and then temperatures will drop to the upper teens in many spots by early Wednesday morning – perhaps breaking low temperature records in some locations. The much colder-than-normal conditions will stick around into Thursday and then some moderation will take place at the end of the week, but temperatures will remain below-normal.
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The first seven days of November have averaged more than 2.6ºC colder-than-normal across the nation and there is another very impressive cold air outbreak on the way for the eastern two-thirds. The first blast of much colder-than-normal air arrived in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US in the overnight hours and tonight will be the coldest so far this season. The next shot of Arctic air is already building up in Canada and it will reach the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest later in the weekend, cross the Great Lakes on Monday, and then into the Mid-Atlantic/NE US on Tuesday. This blast of Arctic air will not only spread out across a larger portion of the country compared to the initial shot, but it will be even colder. In fact, numerous daily low temperature records are likely to be set next week across the eastern two-thirds of the nation and there will likely be many sites recording their lowest temperatures ever for so early in the season.
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The first five days of November have been colder-than-normal across a large part of the nation and there won’t be any let up for the eastern two-thirds of the nation through at least the middle part of the month. The next blast of cold air will reach the eastern states in the Thursday night/Friday morning time frame and then another shot comes by the early-to-middle parts of next week. Rain will accompany the arrival of the first cold frontal system later tomorrow into tomorrow night and it can even end as some snowflakes in parts of the I-95 corridor. Accumulating snow is likely late tomorrow night in far interior regions of the NE US from southwestern NY to northern Maine with the influx of the cold air. The Arctic frontal system arriving early-to-middle next week could feature the development of low pressure along its boundary zone and that puts rain-changing-to-snow on the table for the I-95 corridor.
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November has started off much colder-than-normal across the nation and there won’t be any let up for the eastern 2/3rds of the nation into at least the middle part of the month. The cold start to the month follows a colder-than-normal October across the CONUS with more than twelve-hundred sites experiencing the lowest temperature ever in the month of October and, even-more impressive, many locations set their monthly record for the month as a whole. Multiple cold air outbreaks will ride along the polar jet stream during the next couple of weeks from the northern part of Canada to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US with the first one arriving in the Thursday night/Friday time frame and another next Monday. The late week cold blast will also feature rain-changing-to-snow in parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic and NE US and several inches can accumulate from western New York State to upstate Maine.
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