A long duration winter weather event is underway in the Mid-Atlantic region with a cold “plain” rain south of the PA/MD border, freezing rain and sleet across southeast and east-central PA, and snow is a factor in northeastern PA, interior upstate NJ and in the NYC metro region. As colder air wraps around a very slowly moving and intensifying low pressure system later tonight, accumulating snow will become an increasingly important factor for most areas and accumulations are likely; especially, north of the PA/MD border. In fact, there is the chance that some spots in the Mid-Atlantic region experience significant snowfall amounts on Monday and Monday night as intense mesoscale heavy snow bands are likely to form during this event.
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The major storm that slammed into the west coast a couple of days ago will result in a long duration winter weather event for the Mid-Atlantic region from later this weekend into early next week. This system now over the interior western US will head northeast towards the Northern Plains over the next day or so and will generate significant snow this weekend from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest. It is at this point in time that this system will run into an “atmospheric roadblock” in the form of upper-level high pressure ridging over southern Canada and switch from a northeasterly direction to east-southeast. The end result will be a cold air mass in place in the Mid-Atlantic region when precipitation arrives later Saturday night and low pressure is likely to spin just off the coastline as late as late in the day on Monday. This long lasting winter weather event could feature some ice and/or snow accumulations at the front end for much of the Mid-Atlantic region – perhaps plain rain for awhile in the middle – and then potentially significant accumulating snow on the back end.
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One strong storm is producing heavy snowfall across the Upper Midwest today and it’ll generate some very strong winds later today into Thursday in a large section of the country extending from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/NE US. Another powerful storm continues to wreak havoc across much of the western third of the nation with heavy coastal rain and significant inland snows. This second system will push to the northeast over the next couple of days, but once it reaches the Dakotas, it’ll run into an “atmospheric roadblock” and be “forced” to slide southeast towards the Mid-Atlantic/NE US coastline by later this weekend into early next week. The result of this storm track will allow for cold air to be in place in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US when the storm arrives later this weekend and this raises the chance for snow and ice. The threat for snow and ice will continue into Monday for this part of the nation as the surface low spins around just off the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic/NE US.
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One major storm is bringing heavy snowfall to parts of the Rocky Mountains and central Plains and another is about to slam into the west coast of the US. Heavy snow from the first storm continues across the Rockies and has stretched into the central Plains and it’ll make a push into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. This same system will then head eastward and drag a strong cold front across the Mid-Atlantic/NE US tomorrow evening and the winds will become quite strong with gusts past 40 mph. The second major storm will rapidly intensify before making landfall later tonight near the California/Oregon border and it will bring heavy rain and damaging winds to coastal sections and tremendous snows to inland higher elevation locations of the Sierra Nevada mountain range where the snow will be measured in feet over the next few days. This second storm will cross the nation and arrive in the Mid-Atlantic/NE US this weekend where there will be a lot of cold air and accumulating ice and snow could be the result in interior sections.
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Two big storms will impact much of the nation this week in a week that features the busiest travel day of the year and, of course, the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The first system will bring about another “Denver-to-Minneapolis” snowstorm over the next couple of days – similar to a storm back in October. This system will then drag a cold front across the Mid-Atlantic/NE US later Wednesday and the winds will become quite strong – too strong for any balloons to be used in the Thursday parade in New York City. The second storm of note will become a powerhouse system in the hours before it makes landfall later tomorrow night near the Oregon/California border region. In fact, this Pacific Storm will intensify dramatically in the 24 hours preceding landfall – perhaps to what meteorologists call “bombogenesis” levels which requires a drop of 24 millibars in a 24-hour period. This second storm will bring damaging winds and heavy rain to coastal sections of Oregon/California and tremendous snows to inland higher elevation locations such as the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The second storm will trek all the way across the nation and likely result in ice and snow for the Mid-Atlantic/NE US during the upcoming weekend.
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A potent wave of energy in the upper part of the atmosphere will help to form low pressure over the Tennessee Valley on Saturday morning and then it will travel to the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early Sunday. Rain is likely to break out later Saturday in the I-95 corridor and continue until early Sunday at which time drier air will begin to arrive and lead to improving conditions as the weekend winds down. There will be some cold air around for the weekend system, but the best chance for snow is likely to be confined to areas far west and north of the I-95 corridor (e.g., West Virginia to western/northern PA).
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Hundreds of daily low temperature records were set this week in the eastern two-thirds of the nation and, at several sites, the all-time low temperature for the month of November was recorded. Monthly records that have been set for November are quite impressive indeed as they’ll typically take place in the last week or so of a given month during this time of year. Computer forecast models have been somewhat mixed recently in their temperature anomaly predictions for the US during the remainder of November, but it appears to me that the colder-than-normal pattern will continue right to the end of November for much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
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Dozens and dozens of daily low temperature records were set this morning in the eastern third of the nation and, in some cases, the all-time low temperature for the month of November was recorded. Monthly low temperature records are quite impressive since we haven’t even reached mid-month and most of these type of records would typically take place in the last week or so of the given month. In some spots, today’s record low isn’t the only one to take place in this cold pattern. For example, Central Park’s record low for today followed a record low set before midnight for yesterday and they broke a record on last Friday – the 3rd record low set in just the past several days.
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The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass passed through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early this morning and temperatures have fallen into the 30’s from early day highs. Precipitation is being enhanced in the cold air behind the front as a strong jet streak aloft generates upward motion in the I-95 corridor. As a result, a changeover to snow is likely during the mid-day and early afternoon hours in the immediate DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this changeover to snow is likely all the way to coastal New Jersey and Delmarva. Some spots could receive small snow accumulations and as temperatures drop to near freezing later in the day, watch for the possibility of “black ice” on some roadways. Precipitation winds down later today and the cold will become the main story with record low temperatures in numerous Mid-Atlantic/NE US locations by early tomorrow. Widespread records were set earlier today from Texas to the Great Lakes with some stations recording their lowest temperature ever for the month of November and we are not even at the halfway point.
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The strong cold front representing the leading edge of a widespread Arctic air mass will pass through the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor early tomorrow morning and it will likely result in a rain-changing-to-snow weather scenario. This Arctic blast is likely to result in numerous daily record lows across the central and eastern US over the next few days and, in some cases, perhaps the lowest temperatures ever recorded for this early in the season. In addition, significant accumulating snow is likely over the next 24-36 hours from Ohio/Michigan to western New York to northern New England. Rain should arrive in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC just before daybreak and then, as colder air filters into the region, a changeover to snow for a brief time is likely not only in the immediate I-95 corridor, but ultimately all the way to the coastline. The precipitation will wind down later tomorrow and then temperatures will drop to the upper teens in many spots by early Wednesday morning – perhaps breaking low temperature records in some locations. The much colder-than-normal conditions will stick around into Thursday and then some moderation will take place at the end of the week, but temperatures will remain below-normal.
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